Kid Icarus

It still regularly brings up an argument over how to make a cup of tea that happened 13 years ago, I think we're alright tbh

At the end of the day my only point is that I think a 92% chance of us doing it is much too high. That doesn't equate to pessimism by any means.

I get what you're trying to argue, that I'm making an 'emotional argument' that's akin to some kind of irrational or baseless gut feeling that's without logic or merit, but it's not. You can’t discount the factors that matter regarding each team, their experience in these situations, the pressure and so on, that would be purposefully naive imo. And yes, their form. I dunno what else to say really, but I don't think it's me making an emotional argument on that one chief.

It doesn't like. I can't go into the bookies and ask for the difference between 92 and 65 percent

They lost 5 of their last 10 man. Palace, Brighton, Southampton, Spurs, Us. Spurs and if you're being kind Brighton are the only ones there that aren't huge cock ups for a team going for the Champions League

You're asking the wrong question. The question to ask is do I think that all things considered there's only an 8% chance we fail to win 2 out of 4 matches in a high pressure situation with Liverpool winning 3 out of 3 and Man United winning 3 out of 4? And the answer to that is no, I don't think there's only an 8% chance of that happening.

You must have missed the reasoning behind why Liverpool in their situation and us in ours or Arsenal in theirs last season aren't remotely like for like. If we'd done this before or had experience of getting results in high pressure, top of the table scenarios like Liverpool have, treating this as an all-things-being-equal would make more sense.

That reads like those stories are somehow fairytales. That the emotional or intellectual itch is somehow irrational and not based on pretty solid reasoning.

It doesn't need to just be bottom 6 and you need the context of who the teams are/a larger data set to draw any conclusion. Even then, that's 20% of the matches with points dropped. Arsenal alone lost 3 of the types matches I'm on about in their run in last season.

Do you even appreciate that there are factors that slip between the cracks and aren't quantified by pure probability? That there's a difference between pure maths and applied maths? That millions are spent to try an improve algorithms and include these unquantifiable factors in because they aren't infallible? Or do you just think it's all a basic lack of understanding? Even concentrating solely on Liverpool, they have the form, the quality, the home fixtures, the experience of this situation/other high pressure situations, and the points gap that makes a 92% probability for us, 80% probability for Man United, and only a 27% chance for Liverpool look like an exaggerated difference with those factors and more in mind.

You don't needs odds to tell you that Brighton being a threat was extremely unlikely. No one has been using 73 as the target because it was clear they wouldn't win every single match that includes us, Man City and Arsenal.

Yes, because I truly believe that football results especially at this time of year and especially involving teams fighting relegation are chaos. Year after year. We know this first hand, we've often been that team pulling a result out of nowhere. terminally shit Everton have just beaten excellent all season Brighton 5-1 away, yet I'm supposed to take Leeds away and Leicester at home as bankers?

Ours has only gone down 3%, Man United's has gone down 10%.

I'm saying it's a huge exaggeration, I'm not saying it won't happen.

You don't just indiscriminately share probabilities out between the other teams involved though. Form and history tells you that Liverpool are the main benefactors from this week, not teams that lost.

It's insane. We're one defeat and one Liverpool win away from being level on points. The algorithm is tea leaves for stat worshippers.

Leeds are going to be extra dangerous on Saturday like. Absolute must win for them now.

Not as bad as Nunez's dive, but not far off

Would laugh my tits off if Southampton ended up with another result that's bad for everyone involved

JWP has been doing the give me the ball thing all game then just passing it sidewards to the nearest player.

That touch was pure ASMR

It was a joke

All of them

He hasn't carried them at all, he's been mostly anonymous