Kid Icarus

Woah woah woah, as far as I can tell the 'told you so' patter wouldn't even be happening if pata wasn't flat out calling people thick for predicting it would happen. Anyone doing that is fair game in my book.

I don't really gamble, especially at the moment. Weird thing to say considering ponsaelius does and has made loads of money from it though.

Probability doesn't apply to every team indiscriminately for a start, that's why Leicester winning despite being top for all of 15/16 was still a huge shock when it happened. How many times have we watched teams lose from winning positions in the league, either top or top 4 and go on to let it slip? There's no way that the frequency with which that happens aligns with the probability of, for example, Newcastle United making the Champions League 93 times out of 100 with 4 games to go with having-already-done-it-multiple-times Liverpool behind them on 30% probability

The point is that model demonstrably doesn't apply to football

You're right, thinking that the team that has won the Champions League, the league, accumulated 90+ points 3 times, going on huge winning runs and snatched a Champions League place in exactly this way 2 years ago would do it again was the same as thinking the earth is flat. You're a genius

Einstein was right though

To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it? There's no universal likelihood

Yeah, equally hideous. It needs stripes

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

Yes, for the reasons mentioned. Their easy run in, their returning players, them having done it before. I can understand you arguing against it then, as you did. Not sure why you would argue against it now.

Eh? What's that got to do with their easy run in?

They could very easily slip up against Villa, but the reasoning was that their fixtures were extremely favourable, they were looking better, and had their best players back. Oh yeah and they'd done it before

If this Leicester rock up to SJP we might be able rely on GD

Anah, if none of them are pressing it's obviously not a Maddison problem

Just shows how close you can be to catastrophe mind. 5th, 5th and FA Cup, 8th, relegated

Diaz getting the Fabinho treatment

7th choice

Yeah they moved it back to the frame where Salah was touching the ball rather than the ball being mid pass. Undermining the actual dodgy decisions they've had by trying to make a case on this one imo.

Reminds me of 05/06, which was also hideous

Can't believe how much they've managed to fuck that up. Why are all these manufacturers absolutely shit man, it's unreal

The sleeves completely ruin it

Leicester really are shocking like. Not even a hint of having any fight in them.

Don't be stupid man

I mean he's obviously on. Leicester are a shambles

Christ they're beyond hopeless