James Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Simple question, how much do you think the club is worth? The main assets of the club must be the stadium, the potential to fill it when things are going well, and our Premier League status, plus the TV revenue that brings. That was all there when Ashley paid for it. Plus of course there was the debt which (even though he underestimated it) should be added to the amount Ashley paid. However, the lack of sponsorship revenue, plus further outstanding debts relating to transfer installments mean that when Ashley purchased the club, he paid more than it was worth. So what has changed for the better since? Well supposedly the commercial arms of the club are more efficient, although that claim can't really be verified on here. But what is worse? Dwindling crowds. No manager at a difficult time to find a decent manager. The clubs best playing asset entering the final year of his contract with no sign of any motivation to stay. 10 months flirting with the possibility of relegation. An ever decreasing reputation. A large percentage of season tickets for the next three years pre-sold, question marks over where that money has gone/is going. Relative strengthening of the main competition. An increased wage bill The need to pay off at least five significant boardroom figures. In short, the club is now worth a heck of a lot less than Ashley paid for it, and it wouldn't bother me to see him make a loss. No sensible investor should pay more than £200m for the club. In fact, if they do, I'd be pretty confident that the new people were either stark raving mad, or looking to invest significantly into the playing personnel. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 P.S. My amateur accounting for how much Ashley paid for the club is the £130m + £100m debt paid off equals £230m Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisJbarnes Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 the thing is, i dont think any of us know enough about the football clubs finances, the market in general and the economic climate in order to make a judgement on how much the club is worth, only being fans Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Alan Shearer 9 Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 £175 - £225 mill Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
maze Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Difficult question to answer without some more info about figures and numbers. However, it is reasonable to think P.S. My amateur accounting for how much Ashley paid for the club is the £130m + £100m debt paid off equals £230m In addition to some sort of profit/pay-out... that is by definition at a minimal the interest rate in the bank. Other ways of thinking of it would be whatever pay-off Ashley would have recieved investing his money elsewhere (that is what he does other than investing in football clubs).. it's simple academic word for this, I only know the norwegian word.. but in English it'd probably something like opportunity/alternative cost of investment. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
midds Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 As much as someone is prepared to pay for it. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Difficult question to answer without some more info about figures and numbers. However, it is reasonable to think P.S. My amateur accounting for how much Ashley paid for the club is the £130m + £100m debt paid off equals £230m In addition to some sort of profit/pay-out... that is by definition at a minimal the interest rate in the bank. Other ways of thinking of it would be whatever pay-off Ashley would have recieved investing his money elsewhere (that is what he does other than investing in football clubs).. it's simple academic word for this, I only know the norwegian word.. but in English it'd probably something like opportunity/alternative cost of investment. Opportunity cost is correct. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
NG32 Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 150 - 200 mil Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcdefg Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Whatever someone's prepared to pay for it. By definition. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest michaelfoster Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 200-250m Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Whatever someone's prepared to pay for it. By definition. Robinho is worth £36M. Teehee. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcdefg Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 Whatever someone's prepared to pay for it. By definition. Robinho is worth £36M. Teehee. It's the only meaningful answer, Ashley will sell at the most he can get, any buyer will pay as little as will be accepted. The economics are simple. Guessing what that might be from a position of struggling to pay the mortgage is irrelevant. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
OzzieMandias Posted September 28, 2008 Share Posted September 28, 2008 It's worth what someone will pay for it. The OP reckoning ignores the issue of intangible assets – Newcastle as a brand, it's ability to attract support, sell merchandise etc. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Well at the moment any valuation would have to factor in income streams from the Championship rather than the Premier League. If you were to look at our position without the passion of a football fan thats where we would appear to be headed if we don't get taken over. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bad Mongo Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Whatever someone's prepared to pay for it. By definition. It's an idiot's definition, though. Just FYI. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcdefg Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Whatever someone's prepared to pay for it. By definition. It's an idiot's definition, though. Just FYI. OK then I'll talk out of my arse 50p Happy now? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest battyleespeed Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 Even the specialists have hard time evaluating the assets true value and that's why it took months for Ashley to figure what he had actually bought. Just to give a example players signed from other clubs can be recorded as assets where as free signings like Viduka cannot although in reality the club probably would get few bobs if they'd decide to sell him while he is still under contract. How much is Alan Smith worth right now? Is he estimated on the value he was purchased for or his current realistic resell value? The clubs main source of revenue is still the people who come to see matches (around 34% if I remember correctly). Close second is TV revenue (almost same percentage) but other sources are marginal in comparison (like sponsorship and merchandise). If the attendance and fan relations keeps worsening then the non-tangible current assets (goodwill) - things like customer relationships and brand recoqnition - value should be valued lower although one could argue that the attendance drop is just a temporary. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 The V.C rule of thumb is 3 x revenues, which is about 270m. Everyone has mentioned the factors affecting underlying value. Then the next thing to factor in is 'demand' as the product/club is available on the open market. If the demand for the product is high (7 x bidders?) then the price will tend to be higher than the underlying value. The demand for the club from buyers is in turn, the true reflection of the future growth value of the club. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dokko Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 £250m. Before it all kicked off and went tits up i'd have said £300m. If were still like this by xmas in the same position with JK as temp manager, £200m. If were relegated, £100m, minus £10m for every season we stay there, until were bankrupt. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp40 Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Antec Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely. If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colos Short and Curlies Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... It doesn't work like that. The current standing of the club in the league will have little to do with the price of the club. Businessmen look at numbers first of all, and if we are selling a fairly healthy financial club (with good facilities and on paper good players) the current standing of the club in the league is of secondary importance. But each defeat is a step closer to the Championship, businessmen look at the probability of cashflows as well as the size of them. Although it is still likely that we will not be relegated (looking purely at the standard of player we have and an expected upturn with a permanenet manager in place), the chance of relegation is getting bigger each week. Increase the probability of a cashflow and this flow has less potential value to an investor Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChezGiven Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely. If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back. If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too. Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Antec Posted September 29, 2008 Share Posted September 29, 2008 watever its worth, its getting less by the day..... With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely. If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back. If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too. Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end. Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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