How much is the club worth?

[ChezGiven]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

It doesn't work like that. The current standing of the club in the league will have little to do with the price of the club. Businessmen look at numbers first of all, and if we are selling a fairly healthy financial club (with good facilities and on paper good players) the current standing of the club in the league is of secondary importance.

 

But each defeat is a step closer to the Championship, businessmen look at the probability of cashflows as well as the size of them.

 

Although it is still likely that we will not be relegated (looking purely at the standard of player we have and an expected upturn with a permanenet manager in place), the chance of relegation is getting bigger each week.

 

Increase the probability of a cashflow and this flow has less potential value to an investor

 

True, in the strictest 'MBA-world' of business decision-making, you need to calculate 'expected revenues' weighted by the probability of them occuring.

 

I think this decision will use softer criteria than that, although it could be an influence on the perceived 'price' as January investments may be factored in.

[ChezGiven]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely.

 

If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies

 

For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back.

 

If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too.

 

Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end.

 

Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders?

 

Do you know what the word 'if' means? The Telegraph article doesnt say where the quotes are from.

[Guest Antec]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely.

 

If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies

 

For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back.

 

If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too.

 

Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end.

 

Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders?

 

No

 

Thanks, that's all I needed to know

[Guest battyleespeed]

According to http://www.nufc-finances.org.uk/ the club lost 33 million on fiscal year 2007 mainly due to the inflated wage bill. Quick look shows that about 10 million of the expenses was directors salaries and debt interest which both have more or less reduced since. The cost structure probably hasn't otherwise changed much since because big earners like Owen are still on the wage bill. The potential buyers, if they are planning to buy an profitable business rather than an expensive toy, need to assess if they can lower the wage bill while remain competitive enough to stay in the premier league. Everyone knows that this isn't possible as they can't trim the squad anymore than it has been and rather they'd need to invest into it to avoid relegation fight which means yet another wage bill increase.

 

Perhaps the club is simply not profitable with the current structure and the level of investment required to playing staff to stay competitive. I wonder how the new owners are planning to fix this issue unless they are planning to go about things like Chelsea.

[UV]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

It doesn't work like that. The current standing of the club in the league will have little to do with the price of the club. Businessmen look at numbers first of all, and if we are selling a fairly healthy financial club (with good facilities and on paper good players) the current standing of the club in the league is of secondary importance.

 

Every further game lost, the risk of the club being relegated increases, which would greatly reduce the value of the club. So as the risk increases, the amount anyone is willing to pay for the club will go down. It's in Ashley's interest to sell ASAP (unless Kinnear turns the results around and we start winning of course).

 

Ashley obviously thought it would be simple to keep the club on life support, maintain a midtable team at minimal cost, and milk the Premiership cash cow, but once he realised it was a bit harder than it looks and that he might actually risk losing money on his investment, he started looking for a way out. He realised he wasn't going to be able to do it in secret, so he started looking for "outside investors". The fuss over Keegan has just given him a great excuse to make his desire to sell up public without looking like he's trying to get rid for financial reasons.

[ChezGiven]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely.

 

If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies

 

For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back.

 

If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too.

 

Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end.

 

Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders?

 

No

 

Thanks, that's all I needed to know

 

So, as we have no direct quotes, we cant speculate on what the truth is? Haha, thats NUSC fucked then isnt it.

 

My point, which was clearly too subtle for you, was that even if one of the parties are lying, all it will do is increase the chances of a bidding war, which is usually a good thing. Read up on the 3G license bidding war to understand why. Or you can keep desperately trying to pick holes in my posts.

 

 

[Guest Antec]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely.

 

If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies

 

For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back.

 

If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too.

 

Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end.

 

Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders?

 

No

 

Thanks, that's all I needed to know

 

So, as we have no direct quotes, we cant speculate on what the truth is? Haha, thats NUSC fucked then isnt it.

 

My point, which was clearly too subtle for you, was that even if one of the parties are lying, all it will do is increase the chances of a bidding war, which is usually a good thing. Read up on the 3G license bidding war to understand why. Or you can keep desperately trying to pick holes in my posts.

 

 

 

Put your dummy back in, all I wanted to know was if SP had officially commented, nothing more, nothing less. Throwing a tantrum was not neccessary, continue to speculate as much as you want

[ChezGiven]

watever its worth, its getting less by the day.....

 

With 7 bidders in the mix, thats not likely.

 

If that's true, unfortunately I reckon it's more Ashley lies

 

For what objective? To create a bidding war? Bidding wars are good, they get rid of the bidders who cant follow through with the deal, as demonstrated by the bidding for 3G licenses a few years back.

 

If Seymour Pierce are lying about bidders then they would get into serious trouble too.

 

Someone may be lying but not sure how that becomes a bad thing for the club in the end.

 

Have Seymour Pierce confirmed that there are 7 bidders?

 

No

 

Thanks, that's all I needed to know

 

So, as we have no direct quotes, we cant speculate on what the truth is? Haha, thats NUSC fucked then isnt it.

 

My point, which was clearly too subtle for you, was that even if one of the parties are lying, all it will do is increase the chances of a bidding war, which is usually a good thing. Read up on the 3G license bidding war to understand why. Or you can keep desperately trying to pick holes in my posts.

 

 

 

Put your dummy back in, all I wanted to know was if SP had officially commented, nothing more, nothing less. Throwing a tantrum was not neccessary, continue to speculate as much as you want

 

That was a sarcy put-down not a tantrum.

[Syrette]

A pack of Jaffa cakes.

[Heron]

Due to my lack of Business knowledge and being uncertain is to how much debt is actually there and/or cleared I am going to say an optimistic....

 

£250million

 

I reckon this club has great potential still, and if that potential is made real, then it is likely that the owner dare I say it could maybe even make a profit on us if he/she were to sell it again in the distant future.

[James]

This was the previous results, good time for a revaluation. Personally I don't think the club is worth more than £150m right now, as I think it would be impossible to guarantee the club's top flight status to any new investors.

 

Less than £100m  - 9 (5.2%)

£100m to £150m - 13 (7.5%)

£150m to £200m - 29 (16.8%)

£200m to £250m - 70 (40.5%)

£250m to £300m - 36 (20.8%)

£300m to £400m - 11 (6.4%)

£400m or more. - 5 (2.9%)

[Decky]

Ashley will be here until the summer, and well, no Championship club is worth over £100 million, went for option 1.

[UV]

That bidding war sure worked out well.

[jarralad]

175m.

[NG32]

The club is worth whatever someone is will to pay for it, I bet fat man has not had an offer anywhere near is asking price.  Its a buyers market at the minute.

 

Well done fat man.  Round of applause for him please.

[James]

Results in December. Time for a recount...

 

Less than £100m  - 4 (10.8%)

£100m to £150m - 6 (16.2%)

£150m to £200m - 11 (29.7%)

£200m to £250m - 9 (24.3%)

£250m to £300m - 2 (5.4%)

£300m to £400m - 0 (0%)

£400m or more. - 5 (13.5%)

Total Voters: 37

[James]

I'd say it is around about £120m to £130m (or alternatively £30m plus the loan Mr. Ashley)

 

Going below £100m in a matter of days though, as no expenditure will dramatically reduce the probabilty of a buyer having a Premier League club to play with.

[jarralad]

£125m.

[James]

To be honest, I think there is now only one route that is likely to get Ashley his money back, and no-one, least of all myself is going to like this:

 

Go down. Pocket the parachute payments, the sales, and the savings in wages, and gamble on the youth system being good enough to bring us straight back up.

 

I just can't perceive any other face -saving scenario.

[mrmojorisin75]

to answer the original question from the point of view of MA - not another 10-20m apparently

[UV]

Time to reset the poll with the current press speculation on price haggling and reports Ashley might not sell if he doesn't get his £100m? Probably need to modify the options though.

 

As a comparison with another Championship club at the time with similar size and potential to us, a Google search tells me that:

 

Quinn and his associates are prepared to invest up to £16 million to secure all of the club’s shares, and take over the management of the club’s £35-40million debt.

 

Sunderland had a similar debt to our current overdraft, however they were not set to lose around £30m in the first year they were bought.

[Dave]

All things considered, probably nothing.

[Guest WestEndRiot]

If he wanted 100 million for the club last week, surely now with the sale of Martins, Bassong and Beye that will come down to about 80 million?

[brummie]

If he wanted 100 million for the club last week, surely now with the sale of Martins, Bassong and Beye that will come down to about 80 million?

 

That money is the club's money, not Mike Ashley's.

[Guest Wally_McFool]

60 million and falling.........................