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The 2010-2011 Betting Thread - forum gamble fails, Ash's fault.


Kaizero

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Just put 50 € on a Man Utd/Real Madrid double, which will win me around 100€.

 

Another 50 € on a Man Utd/Inter Milan double, which with a bit of luck will win me over 250€.

 

Returned 281.25€.  :celb:

 

Won the other bet as well yesterday so a very good week for me.  :thup:

 

Edit: Btw for today I have around 22 € on Liverpool/City double.

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Both City and Liverpool to qualify is a good bet.

 

Tempting but I'm a little weary of Man City. Am I missing something? I can't pick Man City to qualify through extra time. I know I could for CL matches.

 

What site?

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Anyone keen on the usual Norwegian Tippeliga low-down each round this year as well by the way? Can't be arsed typing that shit out if nobody wants it. :lol:

 

Can see Tippeligaen getting a supertalent this year, that we can write loads about! like ciljan all these years...

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Selections

1 Man Utd    @ 1.36

2 Chelsea    @ 1.61

3 Barcelona    @ 1.12

4 Real Madrid    @ 1.61

5 Arsenal    @ 1.72

6 Norwich    @ 2.75

7 QPR    @ 2.00

8 Cardiff    @ 2.87

Multiple Bets

1 x 1.00 8 Folds

Stake: 1.00

Potential Winnings:  108.34

 

:thup:

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It's Norwegian write-up time. Keep in mind this first post will be opinionated and it usually takes about three-four matches for the spread between toss and awesome to reveal itself for the spring season. Don't bet too big during these first rounds. There, fair warning.

 

How the league could end?

 

 

 

 

1. Rosenborg

         - As per ususal, you can't not have them as favourites. They've only lost one league match in the past two seasons, but that could all be forgotten this year as they struggle to cope with the losses of Vadim Demidov, Steffen Iversen and Anthony Annan. Demi Goa has been brought in to replace Iversen, he's a bit of an unknown quantity so he could go both ways. Nobody has come in to replace Annan, and the replacement for Demidov in Jim Larsen is still an iffy one in terms of quality for quality. The squad is thin, but they have a great group of youngsters sizzling below the first team, and if they can make the step up Rosenborg will be laughing all the way to the league trophy this year as well.

 

2. Vålerenga

         - Looking at it objectively, they have the best squad on paper and appear to have most squad depth. They've had a competent manager and a sense of stability as a "top" team over the past few seasons. They're ready to fight Rosenborg tooth and nail for the league, and it appear it will be the closest fought battle for the league in many years. They'll be good at home, perhaps a bit iffy away.

 

3. Molde

         - The Solskjær effect will no doubt lift what was already a good squad last year, but due to shit management had a poor first half of the season and was fighting relegation. They've added a few talented players, one of which is one of the fastest professional footballers in Europe in the American Joshua Gatt. (That said I dunno if he's any good, I just know he's fast as fuck.) They'll do well, and they'll be a team that will do well both home and away.

 

4. Tromsø

         - They're stable upper middle half of the table. They are a great home side, but usual the complete opposite when away. Tore Reginiussen is back on loan from Schalke and he'll be integral in their already great defense, arguably the best defense in the league. If the strikers can fire on all sylinders they'll do well, as usual.

 

5. Viking

         - They're a good team, but never good enough. They'll drift around mid-table and results will be very on/off if going by previous years. No significant improvements either, I may be putting them too high on my table due to their history rather than their current quality.

 

6. Strømsgodset

         - Great team of young talents. Stability on the management side of things, stability as a good home side. They'll do very well. Not a great away side, which will hamper any effort at the very top positions.

 

7. Fredrikstad

         - Newly promoted, but with Tarik Elyounoussi back and if they keep Celso Borges for as long as they can, they more than have the potential to fight at the top. They never really deserved to be relegated last time around, and I personally think they'll be back with a vengeance and be the usual one promoted team that preforms above expectations.

 

8. Aalesund

         - Will not be able to copy last years performance, the loss of 2.02cm tall striker Tor Hogne Aarøy will be too big a loss for their playing style to handle with altering in one season, and the supposed replacement in Kjell Sellin is not at all good enough. They're good at home, but their away form will ruin them this year.

 

9. Odd Grenland

         - Frode Johnsen returns from Japan a much older man, he'll not be the saviour they want him to be no matter how much of a hero he is to Oddrane. They'll potentially start strong and then fizzle out. Nothing special about the team, but nothing bad about it either. The definition of a mid-table team with on/off performances.

 

10. Stabæk

         - New manager, not the best or thickest squad on paper. Potential to do well, but will more than likely need a transition season before challenging at the top half of the table again. Unrest about their home ground, may even get kicked out. Does it really feel like home? It's all a bit weird with this lot at the moment, they will probably not do too good either home or away.

 

11. Haugesund

         - Best home record last season second only to Rosenborg. They'll not copy that feat this season as by all accounts they'll get hit by second season syndrome, but not hard enough to end up in the relegation battle. Good quality home grown talent in a still young squad peppered with experience. This could in all honesty go either way, I'm just assuming they'll not manage to copy what they did last season, but by all accounts, they have what it takes to even better it. Will take a few matches to see which direction they'll be heading, up or down the table. Not the best team to bet on in the beginning of the season.

 

12. Lillestrøm

         - Players don't fancy their manager, team suits fancy their manager. Conflict? You know it. Players are badmouthing the manager on their blogs and facebooks, one former player even attacked him on the team website in the comments section. They have players to challenge at the top, but with Henning Berg at the helm it's looking like they've got no chance of doing so. Another team to watch for the first few matches to see how things pan out before placing any bets. They could surprise people, but it's looking very unlikely unless they change their managers into someone that could get the players to want to play for him.

 

13. Start

         - Unrest on the manager side, will he or won't he stay. As things stand IIRC he's not going to renew his contract, but still see out the season. It's a strange situation, and the team will no doubt suffer. And on that note, the team isn't really that good either. They've got a few stand-out players, but they'll not be a force this season. I'd not be surprised if they ended up even lower on the table.

 

14. Sogndal

         - Good crop of home grown talent, they have a knack of developing good players over there. They've been out of the top division for quite a few seasons now, and they'll no doubt fight tooth and nail to stay there, and I think they will succeed in doing so. They've got a large squad, a good manager and a home form to be proud of. They might even do better than this, but I'm being a bit cautious here as on paper you'd imagine they'd see more losses than wins.

 

15. Brann

         - Is there even a team left? If this lot don't crash and burn (at least until the summer transfer window) I'd be very surprised. Sold their best players, got nothing in return. Still in debt even after selling the aforementioned best players, no history of a decent youth academy. They are fucked, and they know it. I'd not bet on this lot, even if they played the team below in my assesement.

 

16. Sarpsborg 08

         - A team of Adecco-liga players (second division) playing on pure will power last season. They aren't good enough for the top division as is, they have the potential, but seeing how it's their first time and a alot of their players aren't good enough, I can't see how they'd manage to stay up for more than this brief cameo. They'll not bomb like Kongsvinger of last year, but they'll probably be comfortable bottom unless Brann really, really, implodes.

 

 

General Assesment:

 

 

The league is wide open. Arguably the 16 teams that are currently in the league are the 16 best teams in Norway at the moment, it will be an open and close fought league with only the top four in my table guess looking to be genuine challengers for the title, the rest can end up anywhere from fifth to sixteenth. I'd wait it out with these teams for the first few rounds to see how things pan out and who's looking to go where on the table. There's only two relegation spots this season as well, which means that the teams that eventually will get stuck in limbo won't have all that much to play for, which in turn would be a good thing for betting on the title chasers and the relegation battlers. It'll be an interesting season, that's for sure.

 

 

Round 1:

Friday 6 P.M

 

Sarpsborg 08 - Molde

2.95 - 3.20 - 2.30

 

On paper Molde should get off to a flying start tonight, and I really think they will. That said, Sarpsborg will be up for it with it being their very first premier division appereance, and at home. It's a tough one, but the strongest team should win.

 

 

Saturday 3 P.M

Viking - Vålerenga

2.20 - 3.30 - 3.20

 

Vålerenga want to get off to a good start, they're a stronger team than Viking and they should get the good start they're yearning for. That said, Viking aren't a bad home side, and will give Vålerenga a fight for the points, may very well end up in a draw.

 

 

Sunday 5 P.M

 

Odd Grenland - Start

1.90 - 3.50 - 3.85

 

Tough nut to crack, but Odd should win it. It's the first match of the season though, and it's hard to say where the teams are. I'd be going dnb on shit like this as it could end up a close fought match, or it could end up the complete opposite. Start will not win though, not away from home.

 

 

Stabæk - Lillestrøm

2.00 - 3.40 - 3.60

 

A match between two teams in limbo. Stabæk is not a great home side either. Stay away. That said, Stabæk is on paper the team with the least background unrest so judging by that they are the favourites. But still, don't bet on it.

 

 

Strømsgodset - Sogndal

1.60 - 3.75 - 5.50

 

The odds are lying, Sogndal could nail a surprise win here with it being their first top division appereance in years, the players will be running on pure adrenaline. That said, Strømsgodset are clear favourites and a great home side. They should win this and they should win it easily. I'd not be expecting Sogndal to surprise us.

 

 

Tromsø - FK Haugesund

1.72 - 3.65 - 4.60

 

What do you usually get when you mix a great home side with a bad away side? A home win. Tromsø should nail this. Haugesund will put up a fight, but by all accounts they will be too weak. Home win.

 

 

Brann - Rosenborg

4.20 - 3.60 - 1.80

 

lol, Brann. Rosenborg will win. No further explanation needed.

 

 

Monday 6 P.M

Aalesund - Fredrikstad

2.05 - 3.40 - 3.45

 

Stay away from this. Both teams are capable of winning, both teams are wild cards in regards to where they might end up on the table. It's a tough one, and it could go either way. If I'd had to choose one though, I'd choose a Fredrikstad dnb.

 

 

 

Single:

 

Rosenborg

 

£100 x 1.80 = £180

 

 

Double:

 

Rosenborg

Strømsgodset

 

£100 x 2.88 = £288

 

Treble:

 

Rosenborg

Strømsgodset

Tromsø

 

£100 x 4.95 = £495

 

Quadruple:

 

Rosenborg

Strømsgodset

Tromsø

Molde

 

£100 x 11.39 = £1139

 

Dare to Dream:

 

Rosenborg -1

Molde

Vålerenga

Fredrikstad

 

£100 x 81.25 = £8125

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