PauL The Octopus goes for Spain as WC Winners

[OzzieMandias]

Instead of a star on the shirt for a WC win, they ought to have a little octopus.

[Guest ObiChrisKenobi]

[Incognito]

He's gone for Oxford in next years boat race.

[Mike]

We need a Paul Smiley for any predictions!!!!

 

:notworthy:

 

 

 

calls shenanigans.

[TaylorJ_01]

There was a 50/50 chance like.

 

Yes, well for example;

 

50/50 in one game means a 50% chance of getting it right.

 

50/50 in the next game means 50% chance of getting it right.

 

Chance of getting both right is 50% of 50% = 25%.

 

Say he predicted 8 matches correctly (more than that in reality).

 

50%-25%-17.5%-8.75%-4.37%-............

 

You have to admit, it's pretty impressive.

[Ketsbaia]

Lets hope the fame doesn't go to his head

[OzzieMandias]

He'll be inking an improved contract soon.

[Village Idiot]

€50m transfer to a Spanish club imho.

[TaylorJ_01]

What betting shop does Paul the Octopus visit?

 

 

 

 

Coral.

[GG]

Just read that the chances of his predictions being right the whole way through are 0.116%. He's one game away from it, ridiculous

 

Don't know where you got that stat from. Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair coin flips, the probability of 12 or more successful predictions in 14 attempts is ~0.65%, as given by the binomial distribution. And the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is ~0.39%

[OzzieMandias]

€50m transfer to a Spanish club imho.

 

It'll be the first time a mundanely named aquatic creature has featured in the top flight since Billy the Fish at Fulchester Rovers.

[Village Idiot]

Have to take into account that the group stage games could have finished in a tie, which doesn't make them coin flips (still don't know how he could have predicted one, though)

[Dave]

Just read that the chances of his predictions being right the whole way through are 0.116%. He's one game away from it, ridiculous

 

Don't know where you got that stat from. Assuming Paul's predictions were no better than fair coin flips, the probability of 12 or more successful predictions in 14 attempts is ~0.65%, as given by the binomial distribution. And the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is ~0.39%

 

Gahaha, just noticed.

[GG]

Have to take into account that the group stage games could have finished in a tie, which doesn't make them coin flips (still don't know how he could have predicted one, though)

 

If you treat it as 'Paul being right' against 'Paul not being right', it's essentially a coin-flip, as there's no accounting for a draw in the method of Paul's picking.

[Village Idiot]

Have to take into account that the group stage games could have finished in a tie, which doesn't make them coin flips (still don't know how he could have predicted one, though)

 

If you treat it as 'Paul being right' against 'Paul not being right', it's essentially a coin-flip, as there's no accounting for a draw in the method of Paul's picking.

 

It's not, since there are two possible instances of Paul not being right (opposition wins, game ends in a draw) versus one of him being right (team picked wins).

[Village Idiot]

Must add that I'm drunk and getting myself in conversations without probably knowing fuck all I'm talking about.

[Ketsbaia]

VI, your country have just won the World Cup man! Go out for the night!

 

 

[Village Idiot]

My Spanish friends work tomorrow so they have left me with a case of beer

[Ketsbaia]

ooooh a cruel situation. hope you have fun, however you celebrate.

[Village Idiot]

Drinking beer and posting on forums. 

[OzzieMandias]

Drinking beer and posting on forums. 

 

And talking about octopuses.

[TaylorJ_01]

Drinking beer and posting on forums. 

 

Piss out of your window at people while singing Hulk Hogans entrance music.

[GG]

Have to take into account that the group stage games could have finished in a tie, which doesn't make them coin flips (still don't know how he could have predicted one, though)

 

If you treat it as 'Paul being right' against 'Paul not being right', it's essentially a coin-flip, as there's no accounting for a draw in the method of Paul's picking.

 

It's not, since there are two possible instances of Paul not being right (opposition wins, game ends in a draw) versus one of him being right (team picked wins).

 

The point is that the model through which Paul picks, has two outcomes (regardless of the games three possible outcomes), so it is as fair as a coin toss.

[chicago_shearer]

Drinking beer and posting on forums. 

 

Watch the last minutes of the game + trophy presentation and porn simultaneously, while having a World Cup victory wank.  Probably the next best thing to being in Madrid for a Spain supporter.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

There was a 50/50 chance like.

 

Yes, well for example;

 

50/50 in one game means a 50% chance of getting it right.

 

50/50 in the next game means 50% chance of getting it right.

 

Chance of getting both right is 50% of 50% = 25%.

 

Say he predicted 8 matches correctly (more than that in reality).

 

50%-25%-17.5%-8.75%-4.37%-............

 

You have to admit, it's pretty impressive.

 

It's lucky/rare, that's entirely different.