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The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Last call for 2011/12 football, pretty much


Stu

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Kidderminster @ 4/6

Sheff Utd @ 11/8

Charlton @ 4/7

Southampton @ 5/6

West Ham @ 8/13

Cardiff @ 4/7

Chelsea @ 7/4  To Win to Nil

Arsenal @ 4/11

 

�2 Trebles (�112), �1 4-folds(�70), �1 5-folds (�56), Acca (�2)

 

From that selection, I'll choose 4 for �50 trebles.

 

Edit: Kiddie @ 4/6 http://www.gravesendreporter.co.uk/football_2_3776/ebbsfleet-utd/ebbsfleet_united_boss_liam_daish_issues_sos_appeal_for_defenders_1_1017127

 

Ebbsfleet had a 40-year old assistant manager on the bench last game.

 

Edit 2:

Kidderminster @ 4/6

Charlton @ 4/7

West Ham @ 8/13

Cardiff @ 4/7

Arsenal @ 4/11

 

�10 Acca @ 9/1+

 

 

Kidderminster @ 4/6

Charlton @ 4/7

West Ham @ 8/13

Cardiff @ 4/7

 

�50 trebles.

 

Good bet.

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Stu: how exactly do the trebles/4 folds etc from that accy work? Do you put a certain amount of money on every possible treble combination?

 

Yup, it's basically hedging. So for all those times you only got one on your accumulator wrong, it provides some profit :)  Obviously reduced risk = reduced rewards though.

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Stu: how exactly do the trebles/4 folds etc from that accy work? Do you put a certain amount of money on every possible treble combination?

 

Yup, it's basically hedging. So for all those times you only got one on your accumulator wrong, it provides some profit :)  Obviously reduced risk = reduced rewards though.

 

Aye, what Beren said basically. Sick of doing accas only to find one or two results have come up short in 6/7 team selections.

 

Gone for a strategy of making my usual selections over a weekend, putting a combination of trebles/4-folds/5-folds/etc. and having a 'small' stake on those. Most are odds on but if I'm only 2 or 3 wrong, then I at least get my stake back (give or take a few quid). Have some good odds this weekend, so there's the potential to be in profit from the larger selections even if I only get half-right :)

 

From those selections, I'm then picking my 4 best choices and sticking £50 trebles on and a £10 acca, so even if Morecambe concede 4 minutes into injury time, I'm at least in profit. If they all come off (like chelsea, kiddie, etc. the other week), then I'm well up :)

 

With the 75% strike rate, I'm slowly building up a decent kitty, couple of home runs have put me well into profit this season and covered most of last season's loss!

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Taking that top accy, Stu, and the stakes you've put on, what would be your profit if, say, 5/8 won? Just to get an idea of how much you'd be up. Tempted to do something like that tomorrow, admittedly with much smaller stakes.

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Taking that top accy, Stu, and the stakes you've put on, what would be your profit if, say, 5/8 won? Just to get an idea of how much you'd be up. Tempted to do something like that tomorrow, admittedly with much smaller stakes.

 

Right, working these all out to a 1pt stake (so you can apply this to your own betting balance).

 

If the 4 highest prices lose 11/8, 7/4, 5/6, 4/6 then:

 

56pts staked, 14.28pts returned = -41.72pts

 

If the 3 highest prices lose 11/8, 7/4, 5/6 then:

 

56pts staked, 37.67pts returned = -18.33pts

 

If the 7/4 and 5/6 lose then:

 

56pts staked, 104.33 returned = +48.33pts

 

If they all win then:

 

56pts staked, 342.35 returned = +286.35pts

 

 

Obviously there are various combinations of those but the idea is that I've previously been getting at 4/6 or 5/7 correct last season so I want to hedge my bets.

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For example, if 5/8 win but the three losers are: Chelsea (to nil), Arsenal and Charlton then:

 

56pts staked, 58.4pts returned = +2.4pts

 

Nothing to write home about but it covers my outgoings and the 'shock' result (i.e. Arsenal) isn't as damaging as it would be in an acca. It also allows me to take a punt on a couple of reasonable selections without them busting the whole bet (i.e. Sheff Utd away from home, Chelsea to win to nil)

 

You could argue that if I'm expecting a couple of my selections to lose, then why am I including them in the first place? Why not just cut down the bet size to a treble or a 4-fold and put my stake on that? Well, if we knew which selections were going to fail...we'd be rich! :lol:

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Back at betting today. 137.50€ on Leverkusen to beat Augsburg to return 237.50€. Should be an absolute safe bet that. It should.

 

Oh, we'll see about that.

 

----------------------------------------

 

Cheers for the info Stu, think I'll look into it more and give it a whirl. I'm more bothered about gaining some sort of profit, giving me more to play with; rather than a very outside chance of a significant profit.

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First bet of the weekend.

 

1 Arsenal Arsenal v Swansea

(Full Time Result) 10/09/2011 None 1.36 To Run

2 Man City -1.0,-1.5 Man City v Wigan

(Alternative Asian Handicap) 10/09/2011 None 1.40 To Run

3 Preston Preston v Yeovil

(Full Time Result) 09/09/2011 None 1.53 To Run

4 Charlton Charlton v Exeter

(Full Time Result) 10/09/2011 None 1.61 To Run

5 Celtic -1.0,-1.5 Celtic v Motherwell

(Alternative Asian Handicap) 10/09/2011 None 1.60 To Run

Multiples

Bet Type No of Bets Unit Stake Stake To Win Returns

4 Folds 5       10.00 50.00 202.99

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Guest optimistic nit

got various accumulators with rangers, citeh, arsenal, barca and real madrid at differemt handicaps. Arsenal -1 against swansea looks like very good odds thou. included cardiff and manure in a couple as well.

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