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How good has our start been? Looking at surprise packages


Giselle
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We have 22 points after 10 matches, a quite frankly brilliant start. But how does this compare to other good starts in past years and where did those teams end up?

 

2010

After 10 matches, only one team had more than 20 points (Chelsea), and there wasn't a surprising package. After only 5 (!!!!) matches, the top four that ended the season were already occupying the top four places in the table.

 

2009

After 13 matches, Villa had 22 points. They ended the season 6th with 64 (!) points.

 

2008

After 10 matches, Hull and Villa both had 20 points. Hull ended the season 17th with 36 points and Villa ended 6th with 62 points.

 

2007

After 10 matches, Blackburn had 21 points. They ended the season 7th with 58 points. Man City had 22 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 9th with 55 points.

 

2006

After 10 matches, Bolton had 20 points, they ended the season 7th with 56 points. After 10 matches, Portsmouth had 19 points. They ended the season 9th with 54 points.

 

2005

After 10 matches, Wigan had 22 points. They ended the season 10th with 51 points. Spurs started well, having 20 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 5th with 65 points. Bolton also had 20 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 8th with 56 points.

 

2004

Everton had 22 points after 10 matches. They ended the season 4th with only 61 points.

 

2003

Birmingham had 19 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 10th with 51 points.

 

2002

Liverpool actually had 30 (!) points after 12 matches, but they ended the season 5th with 64 points. On the other hand, we had 19 points after 11 matches but ended the season 3rd with 69 points.

 

I can't be arsed to go back further, but there's one more season that I remember which is interesting:

1998

Villa were 1st with 39 points after 19 matches. They were also 1st with 22 points after 10 matches. But they somehow ended the season 6th with only 55 points.

 

Compared to surprise packages in the past, we've done very well, and it augurs well for us that most of these clubs finished right around 6-7th, with a few of them ending a bit lower. But it's important to mention that no team which has had a start as good as ours has ended up below 10th. And even then, Wigan were the team which finished 10th. If you take out Wigan, then the lowest any team which has had a good a start as ours has finished is 6th, which was Villa in 1998.

 

The league's much different now in that the top teams get more points than before and 61 points that Everton got 4th with will not happen again. Maybe our good start has been aided with some easy-ish fixtures, so looking at this after fixture #15 might be more predictive, but it's pretty exciting to see that unless we drop off as much as Hull did, we'll end up comfortably in the top 10, and most probably put up a challenge - at least for some time - for 5th-7th.

 

The gap between the good teams and the bad teams is very big nowadays, which is why 80 something points is rarely enough to win the title. The same goes for finishing 4th. You could do it with a low-mid 60s points total, but now you have to be looking at pretty much 70 points if you want to finish 4th. But at least for 7th, 50-ish points will do, with 58 points pretty much guaranteeing you a place in Europe.

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We have 22 points after 10 matches, a quite frankly brilliant start. But how does this compare to other good starts in past years and where did those teams end up?

 

2010

After 10 matches, only one team had more than 20 points (Chelsea), and there wasn't a surprising package. After only 5 (!!!!) matches, the top four that ended the season were already occupying the top four places in the table.

 

2009

 

After 13 matches, Villa had 22 points. They ended the season 6th with 64 (!) points.

 

2008

 

After 10 matches, Hull and Villa both had 20 points. Hull ended the season 17th with 36 points and Villa ended 6th with

62 points.

 

2007

After 10 matches, Blackburn had 21 points. They ended the season 7th with 58 points. Man City had 22 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 9th with 55 points.

 

2006

 

After 10 matches, Bolton had 20 points, they ended the season 7th with 56 points. After 10 matches, Portsmouth had 19 points. They ended the season 9th with 54 points.

 

2005

After 10 matches, Wigan had 22 points. They ended the season 10th with 51 points. Spurs started well, having 20 points

after 11 matches. They ended the season 5th with 65 points. Bolton also had 20 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 8th with 56 points.

 

2004

Everton had 22 points after 10 matches. They ended the season 4th with only 61 points.

 

2003

Birmingham had 19 points after 11 matches. They ended the season 10th with 51 points.

 

2002

Liverpool actually had 30 (!) points after 12 matches, but they ended the season 5th with 64 points. On the other hand, we had 19 points after 11 matches but ended the season 3rd with 69 points.

 

I can't be arsed to go back further, but there's one more season that I remember which is interesting:

 

1998

Villa were 1st with 39 points after 19 matches. They were also 1st with 22 points after 10 matches. But they somehow ended the season 6th with only 55 points.

 

Compared to surprise packages in the past, we've done very well, and it augurs well for us that most of these clubs

finished right around 6-7th, with a few of them ending a bit lower. But it's important to mention that no team which has had a start as good as ours has ended up below 10th. And even then, Wigan were the team which finished 10th. If you take out Wigan, then the lowest any team which has had a good a start as ours has finished is 6th, which was Villa in 1998.

 

The league's much different now in that the top teams get more points than before and 61 points that Everton got 4th with will not happen again. Maybe our good start has been aided with some easy-ish fixtures, so looking at this after fixture #15 might be more predictive, but it's pretty exciting to see that unless we drop off as much as Hull did, we'll end up comfortably in the top 10, and most probably put up a challenge - at least for some time - for 5th-7th.

 

The gap between the good teams and the bad teams is very big nowadays, which is why 80 something points is rarely enough to win the title. The same goes for finishing 4th. You could do it with a low-mid 60s points total, but now you have to be looking at pretty much 70 points if you want to finish 4th. But at least for 7th, 50-ish points will do, with 58

points pretty much guaranteeing you a place in Europe.

 

Interesting post mate

 

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I think we're closest to the Portsmouth squad of '06.  A squad built of unknowns that will finish in the top10.

 

I know we've had a great start to the season but if we eventually finish 9th or better then I will be a happy camper.

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I think we're closest to the Portsmouth squad of '06.  A squad built of unknowns that will finish in the top10.

 

I know we've had a great start to the season but if we eventually finish 9th or better then I will be a happy camper.

 

i'd say we've gone a long way to proving that unless injuries cripple us at some point we're a better team than most of the other 'contenders' for the top ten

 

i'd also say a lot will depend on what we do in january and injuries/suspensions in defense...can santon play CB well does anyone know?  just out of interest

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I think we're closest to the Portsmouth squad of '06.  A squad built of unknowns that will finish in the top10.

 

I know we've had a great start to the season but if we eventually finish 9th or better then I will be a happy camper.

We are much better than that Pompey team. They are similar because of the great team spirit they had for several seasons and the failing manager reinventing himself, but it ends there, imo. Kanu (barely a striker) was their top scorer with 10 goals! :lol: Kranjcar was their only quality in midfield, and Johnson was the only pacy threat outwide. Outside of these three outstanding performances, they really were a below average Premiership side, especially when you look at the careers of the players after.

 

When I look at our side, Krul is a Dutch international, Colo is one for Argentina, Cabaye was a crucial player for one of Europe's best sides last year and also an important player for a major nation, Tiote is proven after last year, Jonas is another Argentina international, Santon comes with great pedigree, HBA is one of Europe's most tempermental yet mercurial talents, and Demba Ba is a proven goal scorer. Even the likes of Marveaux, Obertan, etc. come here with great past performances and potential that has led them to be pursued by top clubs. Portsmouth had none of this. Our league position is a false one, imo, but do not undersell the quality we have here.

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History is bunk. It's up to this group of players to write their own future. Just occasionally, a team like us doesn't fall away like everyone's expecting, and just keeps going.

 

We don't play like our rivals for our current spot - Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs. But you don't get bonus points for artistic impression, or for winning by more than a certain margin. You get the same points for beating Stoke as you'd get for beating Man City. We may well be in for a tonking in Manchester, but there are certain results which are very encouraging - brushing Stoke aside with ease away from home, playing shit at QPR and still getting a point, making Spurs look fairly ordinary and being unlucky not to get a win. Those games dictate your league position just as much as the games where we're up against the really top sides.

 

The other encouraging thing is that we're improving and there's still some room for more improvement, with some good players still waiting for their chance.

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http://thumbs.newschoolers.com/index.php?src=http://i53.tinypic.com/kdnbpk.gif&size=400x1000

 

:lol: It was a great post, Pip. But Shak murdered you.

 

You're going nuts with this stat shit. How much do you miss baseball.

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