Relegationometer

[Mistle17]

If we gone down we won't be coming back up any time soon. Krul, Santon, Coloccini, Debuchy, Taylor (most likely), Anita, Cabaye, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Marveaux, Cisse will all definitely be off, and that's not including if we sign any one decent in this window. And that's all from a weak squad as it is. Perch, Obertan, and Jonas would probably be gone too.

 

The most likely left overs from this squad would be:Elliot, Streete, Campbell, Abeid, , Ranger, Ferguson, Good, Tavernier, Inman, Dumment, Newton, Sammy Ameobi, Shola Ameobi, Williamson, Ryan Taylor, Dan Gosling and Amalifitano. If we're lucky Bigirimana, Obertan and Perch will stay, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Its incredibly depressing, it really is, but its now the position we are facing. Somehow. The bleak reality we face from relegation is that it won't be fun at all; we won't get the same crowds as last time, we won't spend to rebuild a team, we won't have a strong nucleus of a team to get us back up- no Coloccini's, Enrique's, Nolan's, Krul's etc. - we won't have a resilient spirit or a decent manager, we'll have very little to work with. And if you want the finer details we'll be playing with 'Wonga' on our shirt. We'll become another Sheffield Wednesday or Nottingham Forest, cast into Football League oblivion.

 

We thought we'd lose everyone last time to be fair.

 

I see your point, but I think that there was a large sense of guilt from a lot of our players who felt they owed us to stay and get us back up- plus, I think a lot of them had been so poor no one would touch them, especially on the insane wages they were on. This time its slightly different, our current squad (or best 11) absolutely shits on the other team the 08/09 team, imo. Bar the obvious Williamson and Simpson, there aren't many players this season where you can say they've been terrible.

 

If Pardew's still here next season then there is no way any of our good players will stick around.

[Dave]

If we gone down we won't be coming back up any time soon. Krul, Santon, Coloccini, Debuchy, Taylor (most likely), Anita, Cabaye, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Marveaux, Cisse will all definitely be off, and that's not including if we sign any one decent in this window. And that's all from a weak squad as it is. Perch, Obertan, and Jonas would probably be gone too.

 

The most likely left overs from this squad would be:Elliot, Streete, Campbell, Abeid, , Ranger, Ferguson, Good, Tavernier, Inman, Dumment, Newton, Sammy Ameobi, Shola Ameobi, Williamson, Ryan Taylor, Dan Gosling and Amalifitano. If we're lucky Bigirimana, Obertan and Perch will stay, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Its incredibly depressing, it really is, but its now the position we are facing. Somehow. The bleak reality we face from relegation is that it won't be fun at all; we won't get the same crowds as last time, we won't spend to rebuild a team, we won't have a strong nucleus of a team to get us back up- no Coloccini's, Enrique's, Nolan's, Krul's etc. - we won't have a resilient spirit or a decent manager, we'll have very little to work with. And if you want the finer details we'll be playing with 'Wonga' on our shirt. We'll become another Sheffield Wednesday or Nottingham Forest, cast into Football League oblivion.

 

We thought we'd lose everyone last time to be fair.

 

Thing is last time we were generally made up of players who had something to prove (Colo, Enrique), players that were actually embarrassed and gave a fuck about such a big club going down unexpectedly (Nolan, Smith, Raylor), players who at that time genuinely cared about the status of the club (Saylor, Harper, Carroll) and players that probably aren't good enough for the PL but are easily a cut above the Championship (Guthrie, Shola, Jonas). Eight of the most used players were English. None of the ones that stayed were particularly in demand either; the ones that were we swiftly sold.

 

I've no idea who would stay this time but I don't think it'd be the same. Last time was unprecedented, this time we'd be seen as a new yoyo club by many.

[NG32]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

 

This new TV deal is way to big to risk, also as the club is just another business to him and just another asset, then watching that asset devalue is madness.

[Shearergol]

If we gone down we won't be coming back up any time soon. Krul, Santon, Coloccini, Debuchy, Taylor (most likely), Anita, Cabaye, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Marveaux, Cisse will all definitely be off, and that's not including if we sign any one decent in this window. And that's all from a weak squad as it is. Perch, Obertan, and Jonas would probably be gone too.

 

The most likely left overs from this squad would be:Elliot, Streete, Campbell, Abeid, , Ranger, Ferguson, Good, Tavernier, Inman, Dumment, Newton, Sammy Ameobi, Shola Ameobi, Williamson, Ryan Taylor, Dan Gosling and Amalifitano. If we're lucky Bigirimana, Obertan and Perch will stay, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Its incredibly depressing, it really is, but its now the position we are facing. Somehow. The bleak reality we face from relegation is that it won't be fun at all; we won't get the same crowds as last time, we won't spend to rebuild a team, we won't have a strong nucleus of a team to get us back up- no Coloccini's, Enrique's, Nolan's, Krul's etc. - we won't have a resilient spirit or a decent manager, we'll have very little to work with. And if you want the finer details we'll be playing with 'Wonga' on our shirt. We'll become another Sheffield Wednesday or Nottingham Forest, cast into Football League oblivion.

 

We thought we'd lose everyone last time to be fair.

 

I see your point, but I think that there was a large sense of guilt from a lot of our players who felt they owed us to stay and get us back up- plus, I think a lot of them had been so poor no one would touch them, especially on the insane wages they were on. This time its slightly different, our current squad (or best 11) absolutely shits on the other team the 08/09 team, imo. Bar the obvious Williamson and Simpson, there aren't many players this season where you can say they've been terrible.

 

If Pardew's still here next season then there is no way any of our good players will stick around.

 

Your last line is key. There's absolutely no way we can keep Pardew and expect things to come good.

[Mistle17]

If we gone down we won't be coming back up any time soon. Krul, Santon, Coloccini, Debuchy, Taylor (most likely), Anita, Cabaye, Tiote, Ben Arfa, Marveaux, Cisse will all definitely be off, and that's not including if we sign any one decent in this window. And that's all from a weak squad as it is. Perch, Obertan, and Jonas would probably be gone too.

 

The most likely left overs from this squad would be:Elliot, Streete, Campbell, Abeid, , Ranger, Ferguson, Good, Tavernier, Inman, Dumment, Newton, Sammy Ameobi, Shola Ameobi, Williamson, Ryan Taylor, Dan Gosling and Amalifitano. If we're lucky Bigirimana, Obertan and Perch will stay, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Its incredibly depressing, it really is, but its now the position we are facing. Somehow. The bleak reality we face from relegation is that it won't be fun at all; we won't get the same crowds as last time, we won't spend to rebuild a team, we won't have a strong nucleus of a team to get us back up- no Coloccini's, Enrique's, Nolan's, Krul's etc. - we won't have a resilient spirit or a decent manager, we'll have very little to work with. And if you want the finer details we'll be playing with 'Wonga' on our shirt. We'll become another Sheffield Wednesday or Nottingham Forest, cast into Football League oblivion.

 

We thought we'd lose everyone last time to be fair.

 

I see your point, but I think that there was a large sense of guilt from a lot of our players who felt they owed us to stay and get us back up- plus, I think a lot of them had been so poor no one would touch them, especially on the insane wages they were on. This time its slightly different, our current squad (or best 11) absolutely shits on the other team the 08/09 team, imo. Bar the obvious Williamson and Simpson, there aren't many players this season where you can say they've been terrible.

 

If Pardew's still here next season then there is no way any of our good players will stick around.

 

Your last line is key. There's absolutely no way we can keep Pardew and expect things to come good.

 

 

It's just petrifying to think that he could still be here next season (in the Championship)

[LoveItIfWeBeatU]

Although he's far from being the only problem, I do blame Pardew for not getting more out of the players. I can't believe a different manager would have had exactly the same appalling results that we've had under Pardew regardless of the players available to them. The players also have to take blame. I don't care what anyone says, there is no way Pardew is telling the players not to make runs or show for the ball. There is next to no movement when we have the ball. It also isn't Pardew's fault that some of them can't pass. Their heads dropped after we conceded that first goal against Reading. We don't seem to have any leaders in the team. How often do you see our players talking to each other?

 

I voted "8" as I don't see much fight in this team. There also isn't much resilience or creativity. 

[Guest nufcshirts]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

This is from 2011; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/8529924/The-cost-of-relegation-from-the-Premier-League.html

 

25mill a year, but more now because of the new TV deal

[Guest malandro]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

 

This new TV deal is way to big to risk, also as the club is just another business to him and just another asset, then watching that asset devalue is madness.

Last time we went down Dekka said it cost the club £50m in lost income. He said this in the context of praising MA for loaning the club he owns some money post relegation, so might have been hamming it up to make us grateful Mike is around to deal with the fallout out of Mike's mistakes.

 

With the new TV deal I'd be surprised if relegation this year would cost us less than £50m. Can't see MA not being prepared to spend £20m now to avoid a far greater loss, and I expect it could be funded from money the club have, rather than needing him to increase our huge debt even further by loaning the club some more money. 

 

That said, if he can't do deals on his terms he will gamble.

[cp40]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

This is from 2011; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/8529924/The-cost-of-relegation-from-the-Premier-League.html

 

25mill a year, but more now because of the new TV deal

 

isnt there a new parachute deal as well tho taking into account the new tv money.?

I still think He looks at the true cost of relegation, when deciding what to spend in the prem, might not be what people want to hear. It would be how Id run a business if I had couldnt afford to lose money, and didnt have the emotional attachment to the club.

[cp40]

there is another cost to relegation I hadnt considered tho- and that is for the Brands associated with us. Do Sports Direct, Wonga , others? want to become most famous for failure on TV , dwindling crowds under thier banners, booing unhappy fans- its not great for your brand i wouldnt have thought.

[Dave]

there is another cost to relegation I hadnt considered tho- and that is for the Brands associated with us. Do Sports Direct, Wonga , others? want to become most famous for failure on TV , dwindling crowds under thier banners, booing unhappy fans- its not great for your brand i wouldnt have thought.

 

On the contrary, it's great exposure for them.

[Guest teapot]

Hasn't our new improved transfer policy not included assessing players mental attitudes and committment when talking about the players who would not stick around if relegation happens ?

[NG32]

there is another cost to relegation I hadnt considered tho- and that is for the Brands associated with us. Do Sports Direct, Wonga , others? want to become most famous for failure on TV , dwindling crowds under thier banners, booing unhappy fans- its not great for your brand i wouldnt have thought.

 

Ticket prices go down and coporate visitors/fans go down.

[Guest nufcshirts]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

This is from 2011; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/8529924/The-cost-of-relegation-from-the-Premier-League.html

 

25mill a year, but more now because of the new TV deal

 

isnt there a new parachute deal as well tho taking into account the new tv money.?

I still think He looks at the true cost of relegation, when deciding what to spend in the prem, might not be what people want to hear. It would be how Id run a business if I had couldnt afford to lose money, and didnt have the emotional attachment to the club.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/the-parachute-payments-to-clubs-relegated-from-the-premier-league-can-be-a-lifesaver--but-is-it-fair-to-all-the-other-teams-8448748.html

 

"Currently relegated clubs get £48m over four seasons (£16m in the first two seasons, £8m in the next two – payments cease if they go back up) ."

[NG32]

it looks more and more to me that the policy of the club is to build a squad capable of promotion from the championship- and have a see what happens attitude to the prem.

 

I dont know why you would take those types of risks when the new TV deal is next season and its massive.  I gave them the benefit of my doubt in the summer and it looks like they gambled on not spending to much money in the summer...given that they retained all the key players in the squad.

 

There is noway any of us thought we would be in a relegation battle, maybe lower down the league with the extra games in europe but not this bad.

 

 

 

I still dont know the difference between a championship season and a prem one- But Im guessing its about £20m- £30 in terms of income- Ashley wont spend £20m net to save £20m in any seasons two windows, he will take the gamble.

This is from 2011; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/8529924/The-cost-of-relegation-from-the-Premier-League.html

 

25mill a year, but more now because of the new TV deal

 

isnt there a new parachute deal as well tho taking into account the new tv money.?

I still think He looks at the true cost of relegation, when deciding what to spend in the prem, might not be what people want to hear. It would be how Id run a business if I had couldnt afford to lose money, and didnt have the emotional attachment to the club.

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/the-parachute-payments-to-clubs-relegated-from-the-premier-league-can-be-a-lifesaver--but-is-it-fair-to-all-the-other-teams-8448748.html

 

"Currently relegated clubs get £48m over four seasons (£16m in the first two seasons, £8m in the next two – payments cease if they go back up) ."

 

Massive drop in revenue.

 

Mental to risk it.

[Dokko]

Wait till HBA is back and taylor is in the squad...like we will go the rest of the season with our full team available. 

 

 

 

 

[Guest neesy111]

8.5

[Ketsbaia]

I'll downgrade my 10 to a 9, because it's hard to justify a 10 when we've not been in the bottom three yet. We will be soon though.

[Si]

It would be typical Ashley to miss out on the super payment next year by trying to cut costs and run things lean. I agree with a sensible business model and wage structure but we have gone too far the other way.

[Interpolic]

Much like the year we went down, I've been in denial this season.  Since I woke up today I've been pretty sure we're going down though.  The list of teams we've failed to beat this year is alarming, it'll take a small miracle for us to pick up enough points IMO.

 

The knacker in the dugout needs to go or we've got no chance.

[Legacy]

If caulkins tweets are that of the club, we'll be in the championship next season.

[Disco]

One of my concerns is that if we're still struggling come April/May it won't really matter for a lot of the better players as they'll easily be able to find new clubs & due to last season will remain with their reputations still fairly intact.

[Guest ItalianMagpie]

One of my concerns is that if we're still struggling come April/May it won't really matter for a lot of the better players as they'll easily be able to find new clubs & due to last season will remain with their reputations still fairly intact.

 

Well not necessarily people are happy to move somewhere else once they're settled down in Newcastle. Those who are not will prefer to stay and play for us, and I have no doubt about their commitment and fighting spirit until the end.

Of course if most of our players is at NUFC only waiting for something better then yeah, you're probably right.

[Decky]

I think people are misjudging the list of players who will leave if we go down. People are mentioning at least 6 players going, in some cases more, it just won't happen. We have a wafer thin squad as it is, we're not about to go and sell the guts of 10 first team players. Some will go, no doubt, but some like it or not will have to stay so we have a squad to put out on the first day of the season. I also think the likes of Cabaye could possibly give it one more season in a bid to get the club back up.

[Oakie Doke]