The Europeometer™ (2024/25) - NUFC Qualify for Conference League (at least)

[Superior Acuña]

5 minutes ago, SteV said:

I’ll probably regret getting involved in this, but I’m guessing also 5…

Could be a draw too…

I reckon a draw’s quite likely actually. Wouldn’t be great but not end of world either. 

[Superior Acuña]

6 minutes ago, Joelinton7 said:

Would it?

Correct as far as I can tell. Would put us on 67.  Villa would be max 67. And only Chelsea or Forest could finish above us in that scenario. 

Edit - no. Probably but possibly not.

Chelsea would be max 69 and Forest max 67. Or Chelsea max 66 and Forest max 70. Or Chelsea max 67 and Forest max 68.

In the third scenario Chelsea *could* realistically just pop us on GD.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Superior Acuña

[Danh1]

Sorry to piss everyone off about something that, presently, isn’t likely to happen but it pissed me off so I had to share.  

 

 

 

[Novocastrian]

6 minutes ago, Joelinton7 said:

Would it?

Maybe, Villa would be out of the running. If Chelsea lost to Forest the max points they could get would be 66. If they beat Forest, the max Forest could get would be 67 but probably with an inferior GD to us.

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Novocastrian

[t00nt00n313]

9 minutes ago, Joelinton7 said:

Would it?

 

We beat Chelsea and get a draw from our remaining 2 we are on 67.

 

If villa don't win all of their remaining 3 they are also on 67 but have way worse gd than us so that would be them out.

 

If Chelsea lose to us in this scenario, then beat man u they'd be on 66 going into their last game with forest.

 

Then if forest win their next two they would also be on 66 going into their last game with Chelsea.

 

So three scenarios here:

 

Chelsea win, they get cl, forest are on 66 and we are on 67 so we go through with them over forest 

 

Forest win, they get cl, Chelsea are on 66 and we are on 67, so we go through over Chelsea 

 

Forest and Chelsea draw: forest, Chelsea and us end on 67 points. But our gd and Chelsea's is much better than forests so we'd probably go through over them (and when I say probably I mean almost definitely as forest are never turning that gd around in this scenario).

 

So yeah tl;Dr version, if we beat Chelsea and Villa draw or lose to bournemouth (or just don't win all their remaining games), then we'd only need one additional points from arsenal or everton to secure cl.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by t00nt00n313

[Hanshithispantz]

Forrest will be on 67 if they win their next 2

[Broadsword]

Yes it is true that if we beat Chelsea and villa draw then one more point for us secures top 5.

[jack j]

5 minutes ago, Danh1 said:

Sorry to piss everyone off about something that, presently, isn’t likely to happen but it pissed me off so I had to share.  

 

 

 

Not if villa win both their games before the last day

Forest winning at West ham isn't nailed on either

[Tisd09]

Massive Bournemouth fans on Saturday then. If they can pull something off for us and we beat Chelsea my confidence will be restored. 

 

Just hope it's one of those games like the two Arsenal semis were we are just on it from minute one. 

 

Would like to see Gordon come back in at very least just to freshen things up. Miley played well against these last season is it time to give him a chance?

[Joelinton7]

I kind of get it now. So we get to 67, Villa draw at Bournemouth and their max is 67 but with an inferior gd to us.
 

Let’s say Chelsea have lost to us but win their next two, they finish on 69 ahead of us. Forest of course would in that scenario only win two to give them 67 but with a worse gd than us. We finish in 5th above Forest. 
 

If Forest win all of their remaining games they finish on 70, above us but we’re in 5th with Chelsea on 66 in 6th?

[t00nt00n313]

I think if villa are gonna drop points from their next 3 it'll be to bournemouth away. Still man u and spurs are also capable of getting lucky and just not losing every now and then too.

 

We're defo capable of getting a point from either arsenal away or everton at home.

 

I think the most difficult will be beating chelsea though, which is why this Sunday is just so damn important 

[Superior Acuña]

8 minutes ago, t00nt00n313 said:

 

We beat Chelsea and get a draw from our remaining 2 we are on 67.

 

If villa don't win all of their remaining 3 they are also on 67 but have way worse gd than us so that would be them out.

 

If Chelsea lose to us in this scenario, then beat man u they'd be on 66 going into their last game with forest.

 

Then if forest win their next two they would also be on 66 going into their last game with Chelsea.

 

So three scenarios here:

 

Chelsea win, they get cl, forest are on 66 and we are on 67 so we go through with them over forest 

 

Forest win, they get cl, Chelsea are on 66 and we are on 67, so we go through over Chelsea 

 

Forest and Chelsea draw: forest, Chelsea and us end on 67 points. But our gd and Chelsea's is much better than forests so we'd probably go through over them (and when I say probably I mean almost definitely as forest are never turning that gd around in this scenario).

 

So yeah tl;Dr version, if we beat Chelsea and Villa draw or lose to bournemouth (or just don't win all their remaining games), then we'd only need one additional points from arsenal or everton to secure cl.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You’re not right on the draw scenario. Forest would be a point above us and Chelsea would be level. We may be above Chelsea on GD but may not.

[black_n_white]

If we draw on Sunday will we need something from the Arsenal game?

[Andy84]

Can’t see Villa being perfect in their last 3.  Forest will need to beat Chelsea to get CL qualification last day 

[Bimpy474]

Understandably, there's too much over thinking going on. It's simple, It's in our own hands, just what we would have wanted with just 3 games left.

 

One game at a time, win the next one, that's all we need to focus on.

 

[CallumG6]

Numbers, numbers, numbers! 

[Andy84]

Just now, black_n_white said:

If we draw on Sunday will we need something from the Arsenal game?

Not necessarily but we’ll need others to slip up 

[Andy84]

68 is the magic number 

[Broadsword]

1 minute ago, black_n_white said:

If we draw on Sunday will we need something from the Arsenal game?

If we draw on Sunday I thinks its all over for us unless we beat Arsenal and Everton.

[Stifler]

Someone on Reddit has created this.

 

 

 

Edited 6 hours ago by Stifler

[t00nt00n313]

5 minutes ago, Superior Acuña said:

You’re not right on the draw scenario. Forest would be a point above us and Chelsea would be level. We may be above Chelsea on GD but may not.

The draw scenario gets weird as it comes down to our gd vs Chelsea. If we're assuming Chelsea get a draw, a win and a loss in this, and we get the same and we're currently on the same gd it comes down to how many goals we beat them by, how many goals we lose to arsenal by, and how many goals Chelsea beat man u by.

 

Admittedly I can see that going more Chelsea's way than us. Chelsea could probably thrash man u, and we are capable of getting thrashed by arsenal.

 

[Broadsword]

2 minutes ago, Andy84 said:

68 is the magic number 

69 guaranteees it.  There is a scenario that 68 isn't enough.

[Danh1]

16 minutes ago, jack j said:

Not if villa win both their games before the last day

Forest winning at West ham isn't nailed on either

Aye it’s definitely not likely to happen. Would love us to go into that last game with it all sealed, cannot cope with the stress of that Leicester game the other season. Thought they’d won it late on. 

[TRon]

7 minutes ago, Broadsword said:

If we draw on Sunday I thinks its all over for us unless we beat Arsenal and Everton.

 

Disagree, I think it's important we don't get beat above all else. There's every chance Villa and Forest stumble as well. Ideally we beat Chelsea, but  a draw wouldn't be a disaster, if we draw against Arsenal as well then beat Everton, that might well be enough to see us through.

[Ola1949]

Win both our home games and we are in the Champions League. Simple