NUFC specific FFP/PSR discussion

[TheBrownBottle]

4 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

That win puts us at about €65m earned so far in the Champions League. 

 

Plus our matchday revenue will now reflect roughly £17m more just from CL home games.

And it will make absolutely diddly-squat difference to what’s available next season with the rule changes, so it isn’t worthwhile even counting at this point. 

[madras]

5 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

And it will make absolutely diddly-squat difference to what’s available next season with the rule changes, so it isn’t worthwhile even counting at this point. 

An extra 65mill is worthless and will make no difference ? Walk me through this.

 

 

Edited February 24 by madras

[TheBrownBottle]

Just now, madras said:

An extra 65mill is worthless will make no difference ? Wall me through this ?

The new SCR rules which come in next season mean that only that years income and outgoings are measured - so any income / outgoings this season don’t count towards next season.  The new rules are all about squad cost vs income.  

[OverThere]

1 minute ago, TheBrownBottle said:

The new SCR rules which come in next season mean that only that years income and outgoings are measured - so any income / outgoings this season don’t count towards next season.  The new rules are all about squad cost vs income.  

How can this be when you won't know what your income for the season will be until the season has finished?

[Fak]

Just now, OverThere said:

How can this be when you won't know what your income for the season will be until the season has finished?

 

Hopkinson could show you a graph of our squad vs. task and where the line goes

[TheBrownBottle]

1 minute ago, OverThere said:

How can this be when you won't know what your income for the season will be until the season has finished?

It’s the same rules UEFA has.  You won’t know until the season ends.  I didn’t write the rulebook, I think it’s daft too. 

[madras]

4 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

The new SCR rules which come in next season mean that only that years income and outgoings are measured - so any income / outgoings this season don’t count towards next season.  The new rules are all about squad cost vs income.  

Doesn't it affect the other tests (SSR and equity stuff)?

[timeEd32]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It’s the same rules UEFA has.  You won’t know until the season ends.  I didn’t write the rulebook, I think it’s daft too. 

 

That's not true. Clubs will be agreeing with the PL prior to the season on what their projected revenue is based on previous seasons. Which means if you've consistently finished 4th-7th and suddenly finish 17th you aren't going to be penalized for suddenly losing £30m in revenue.

[Mountain]

9 minutes ago, madras said:

An extra 65mill is worthless and will make no difference ? Walk me through this.

 

 

 

 

If you spend it on Wissa/Elanga.

[TheBrownBottle]

1 minute ago, madras said:

Doesn't it affect the other tests (SSR and equity stuff)?

The money still counts in terms of regular P&L ledger, but the purposes of buying more players it has zero impact.  The club decided not to roll the dice in January, which might prove to be sensible if we don’t qualify for Europe (not qualifying for Europe has a significant impact on SCR %), but there is an argument that we could have got a couple of expensive loan signings as the win vs Qarabag would likely have covered at least one. 

[Andy84]

7 minutes ago, Fak said:

 

Hopkinson could show you a graph of our squad vs. task and where the line goes

The line goes where he wants it now if he can’t improve his turnover and margins Yasir will need a serious chat 

 

 

Edited February 24 by Andy84

[TheBrownBottle]

2 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

 

That's not true. Clubs will be agreeing with the PL prior to the season on what their projected revenue is based on previous seasons. Which means if you've consistently finished 4th-7th and suddenly finish 17th you aren't going to be penalized for suddenly losing £30m in revenue.

Yes, I know that, but it is ultimately still based on that season’s accounts.  

[Mag3.14]

59 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

It’s the same rules UEFA has.  You won’t know until the season ends.  I didn’t write the rulebook, I think it’s daft too. 

UEFA's measuring period is for the calendar year (Jan 1-Dec 31) not the season, so this extra revenue is applicable here 

[The Prophet]

2 hours ago, TheBrownBottle said:

The new SCR rules which come in next season mean that only that years income and outgoings are measured - so any income / outgoings this season don’t count towards next season.  The new rules are all about squad cost vs income.  

 

The main test is in SCR compliance period is in March, so we should still get the benefit.

[TheBrownBottle]

5 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

The main test is in SCR compliance period is in March, so we should still get the benefit.

Compliance test is on the 1 March but it’s still based on forecast against future cash flow for the remainder of the season - it’s not based on the 12 months up to the 1 March.

 

One of the notable changes is that we now know the impact for breaches - with a ‘traffic lights’ system and fixed points deductions once you go past red - six points and then an additional point for every £6.5m you go over.  

[TheBrownBottle]

1 hour ago, Mag3.14 said:

UEFA's measuring period is for the calendar year (Jan 1-Dec 31) not the season, so this extra revenue is applicable here 

Unlike UEFA’s, the PL SCR rules are season-to-season.  I was referring to the similarity of the calculations.  So weirdly enough you could be fine in the calendar year and then breach the PL rules a couple of months later 

[timeEd32]

31 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Compliance test is on the 1 March but it’s still based on forecast against future cash flow for the remainder of the season - it’s not based on the 12 months up to the 1 March.

 

One of the notable changes is that we now know the impact for breaches - with a ‘traffic lights’ system and fixed points deductions once you go past red - six points and then an additional point for every £6.5m you go over.  

This is the best part of the new rules. Transparent fines leading to a points deduction that means you’re so far off the rails that you deserve to be punished. And that combined with agreeing numbers ahead of time at least makes it a lot less stressful.

 

Curious your thoughts on this - in this new system that only counts football expenses but counts all revenue isn’t something like STACK a dream business? Shouldn’t every club be running pubs, event spaces, and grocery stores with their name on it? High revenue businesses where low margins don’t matter for calculations.

 

If STACK could make £10m and costs £9.99m to run then free £10m in terms of SCR, no?

[TheBrownBottle]

16 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

This is the best part of the new rules. Transparent fines leading to a points deduction that means you’re so far off the rails that you deserve to be punished. And that combined with agreeing numbers ahead of time at least makes it a lot less stressful.

 

Curious your thoughts on this - in this new system that only counts football expenses but counts all revenue isn’t something like STACK a dream business? Shouldn’t every club be running pubs, event spaces, and grocery stores with their name on it? High revenue businesses where low margins don’t matter for calculations.

 

If STACK could make £10m and costs £9.99m to run then free £10m in terms of SCR, no?

Isn’t the rule that it is net profits from non-football income that are included?  If it’s just income then you’re right, the club would be best off attaching a supermarket the size of Kingston Park TESCO which would add huge sums to the revenue.

 

I would definitely expect any new stadium for NUFC to incorporate a complex like the Gate in there with pubs, restaurants, a casino etc - you’d want as much coin coming in as possible.  The numbers are much smaller but this model operates in Australia - here in NSW, rugby league is the no.1 sport but revenues from tickets, TV and sponsors has historically been dwarfed by what the clubs bring in with the ‘leagues clubs’ - effectively CIUs with added kitsch, Las Vegas meets Westerhope Comrades social club type operations.

 

In terms of my view - if PSR is to exist, I don’t think any of those revenues should be counted - it really should be matchdays only.   What is likely to happen is for football clubs to suck money out of the local community and it’ll pour into the pockets of ridiculously paid players and foreign-based owners - and will in all likelihood cause further damage to city centre economics and local pubs and businesses.  The clubs owners aren’t daft - the rules are once again designed to minimise their need to invest while simultaneously making sure Joe Bloggs pays for their vanity asset. 

[timeEd32]

5 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Isn’t the rule that it is net profits from non-football income that are included?  If it’s just income then you’re right, the club would be best off attaching a supermarket the size of Kingston Park TESCO which would add huge sums to the revenue.

 

I would definitely expect any new stadium for NUFC to incorporate a complex like the Gate in there with pubs, restaurants, a casino etc - you’d want as much coin coming in as possible.  The numbers are much smaller but this model operates in Australia - here in NSW, rugby league is the no.1 sport but revenues from tickets, TV and sponsors has historically been dwarfed by what the clubs bring in with the ‘leagues clubs’ - effectively CIUs with added kitsch, Las Vegas meets Westerhope Comrades social club type operations.

 

In terms of my view - if PSR is to exist, I don’t think any of those revenues should be counted - it really should be matchdays only.   What is likely to happen is for football clubs to suck money out of the local community and it’ll pour into the pockets of ridiculously paid players and foreign-based owners - and will in all likelihood cause further damage to city centre economics and local pubs and businesses.  The clubs owners aren’t daft - the rules are once again designed to minimise their need to invest while simultaneously making sure Joe Bloggs pays for their vanity asset. 

Ah yes, thought that seemed too easy. 
 

Noises coming from the club indicate excitement about this change. I can see a number of benefits like mentioned above, but they mostly protect the downside scenarios like random point deductions.
 

The happiness is probably more for reasons like you said. For example, building a stadium using loans and the interest no longer being held against the club in terms of these calculations. That’s a more business friendly arrangement without negative PR.

[r0cafella]

I haven't bothered to read into the details, does anyone know if publishments are capped at a certain amount of points? I understand administration is a 12pt deduction going beyond that for a breach when solvency isn't in question would be insanely Draconian. 

[TheBrownBottle]

20 minutes ago, r0cafella said:

I haven't bothered to read into the details, does anyone know if publishments are capped at a certain amount of points? I understand administration is a 12pt deduction going beyond that for a breach when solvency isn't in question would be insanely Draconian. 

Haven’t seen anything which suggests there is a cap, doesn’t mean there isn’t one.  But you’d need to be over by a lot to even hit 12 points - you’d have to be beyond the red threshold and then a further £39m over to hit that number.  

[r0cafella]

29 minutes ago, TheBrownBottle said:

Haven’t seen anything which suggests there is a cap, doesn’t mean there isn’t one.  But you’d need to be over by a lot to even hit 12 points - you’d have to be beyond the red threshold and then a further £39m over to hit that number.  

Should be quite easy to breach especially if you were saying running a CL budget and drop out to no European football, especially if your trying to grow think us and Villa. 

[timeEd32]

It’s incredibly difficult to breach to the point of point deductions. There’s a 30% allowance beyond the limit where you’d pay a fine. Essentially a luxury tax.

 

if you do go beyond that additional 30% then it’s 6 point deduction plus 1 point for every £6.5m over.

[r0cafella]

48 minutes ago, timeEd32 said:

It’s incredibly difficult to breach to the point of point deductions. There’s a 30% allowance beyond the limit where you’d pay a fine. Essentially a luxury tax.

 

if you do go beyond that additional 30% then it’s 6 point deduction plus 1 point for every £6.5m over.

This allowance is a temporary thing from what I recall? 

[andyc35i]

Sounds like we should just spend, spend, spend!