The College Dropout

Agreed. Howe loves Burn, Botman & Schar but one will have to sit it out. Honestly, I expect Botman to sit on the bench and get minutes from there (probably for Hall) for a while—well into February—before eventually replacing a CB. I assume it will be Burn, but Schar hasn't covered himself in glory recently.

Brighton don't have genuine CL ambitions though.

Dont think this is true mind. The new directive means VAR is going with the referees decision if they saw it 95% of the time. Even when the decision is wrong. In the PL anyway. Don’t know what they are doing in the CL. Vini got kicked in the box no foul so dunno.

It is that simple mind. Most teams finish within 3 places of the squad cost on average. You’re absolutely wrong about squad cost and wages. From the last known account we are 7th and 8th in squad cost and wages swapping with Villa. Wages 8th closer to Everton, Villa and Leeds than the 6th place club Arsenal. The squad cost was 7th - 100m short of Spurs in 6th (who have spent 500m since these accounts iirc). Again closer in wages squad cost to Leeds, West Ham & Everton. The bottom line is the squad is far closer in value and wages to Wst Ham and Everton than Arsenal or Spurs. Im not arguing the point that we should be happy with 11th. If Howe finishes 11th he will fairly sacked. But some of you expect him to overachieve as par. Not The atmosphere at the club, squad or recent transfer windows make finishing higher than our budget and cost an unreasonable expectation. Howe benefitted from atmospheere for a long time - now it’s against him (although partial self created). Some of the clubs that will finish above us will do so not because they have better managers. But because the clubs are better run. Smarter transfers, better atmospheres. For a club to over achieve the transfers, squad building and atmosphere needs to be good. Ours is not.

I think 7th and 8th is a good target. But those spots don’t guarantee European football. Again maybe I’m being too black and white. But to me you target 7th or 8th and hope it brings European football and take what you get. Or European football is the genuine target which requires top 6 or a cup to guarantee as a target.

To guarantee Europa league you must finish 5th or win FA Cup. It’s likely 6th will do it. Anything less is unlikely which doesn’t make it a viable target imo.

The season before. Hence the points deductions. For Leicester it was the season before that. We didn’t learn from their issues. As we agree - that was a failure and a like has been drawn. When did Yasir downgrade being number 1? The short term goal is Europe. The long term goal is #1 is he doubled down in the summer I believe. Im going to bow out here. This discussion isn’t genuine. Me expecting the leaders to manage our PSR position better = take a points hit to you. Ok man. I’m out.

Training ground? Hotels?? Im sure there’s something we could do. Has to be.

7th biggest squad cost. 8th biggest wage. Target = 6th Doesnt make sense to me. Eddie should never have been responsible for who we buy sell or give contracts too. Won’t hold that against him. If he doesn’t like it he should leave.

I’m not advocating sacking anyone lol. Leicester, Everton, Chelsea, Forest, Newcastle, Villa all had PSR issues to deal with. All these clubs traded before the deadline. We were one of the last to act and we got the worst deal of them all - sold a useful player for a useless player and our most valuable prospect in a position we needed enforcements. That was dealt badly - Forest fleeced us. They got Anderson for 15m which they can recoup if needed. We didn’t even get the best offer for Minteh. Anyway the ppl involved have gone. But that still happened under PIFs watch - that doesnt absolve them of blame. They are the major shareholders. I’ve no reason to think Yasir has changed his end goal. So I will stick with his word until he says otherwise. I just don’t see how he plans for us to get there. Where we differ is I’m happy to speculate based on the last known facts. Will update my thinking as new facts become clear.

Selling the building of SJP will be worth a lot though surely. Or the leasehold. Even at FMV.

No Spain has a wage and spend cap linked to revenue. So it’s linked to that which links to PSR. It might be a cash flow thing but I don’t think so. They could take on loans if it was cash flow.

To front load revenues so they can spend now? Barcelona have been doing this for some time. Selling off future revenue for revenue right here and now. They sold future rights so they could buy the likes of Lewa and Gundogan. They are insane.

Can we sell SJP to the Saudis?

Well no you only get the revenue for 3 seasons on the books. But aye even just the 1 season that adds £100m to the books per annum. These are the type of schemes we should be doing. Half the seats at half the rate paid for in 2 year lump sum is still £50m on the books minimum.

Was there a single area of the club that Ashley bothered to invest in? A proper commercial team and academy pays for itself plus profit. I’ll never forget how the wider footballing world just didn’t care. That’s a main reason I don’t care if we find money hacks and just blow everyone out and dominate like that. They didn’t care when we were being devalued, they don’t care that we are blocked from investing. I won’t care if we ever buy our way to success.

Are these not valid criticisms or something? We’ve had 3 years of evidence - including 1 year shit hit the fan and we dealt with it the worst of the 6 clubs involved. We’ve seen other clubs navigate PSR issues with more nous and creativity. That’s not speculation - that’s evidence. The people involved have been moved on and we unanimously agree we were mismanaged by them. Sacking Eddie and being ambitious doesn’t mean much. Ambition without skill and nous isn’t that useful. Unless they can give the next manager structure that they can succeed in it’s almost worthless. Increasing revenue is way more important than changing the manager. Being smart in the transfer market is way more important than changing the manager. Sorry pal but I think your second paragraph is BS. Running football clubs is tremendously difficult x10 one in our position. I don’t expect Owners to come in and be perfect from day one. Both City and Villa owners had multiple years wasting money, bad decisions etc. Brentford and Brighton needed years for their transfer approach to pay off big. Our Owners have made mistakes and I want them to improve and do better as other owners have over time. You seem to have this attitude that any criticism means I want the owners to leave - that’s a very shallow thought process. People did the same thing with Howe last season. I criticised Howe last season because he made mistakes. People thought I wanted him out and that’s such basic thinking. It’s because if they criticise a manager - they want them out. I don’t think like that. Im ok if they don’t ever show the nous and creativity I hope for. We’ll eventually get a new stadium and a great academy which will bring us closer to the top 6 in the long term. In the mean time we’ll average 7th/8th with the opportunity to challenge for cups. That’s better than what I’ve experienced for most of my life. But the rhetoric of challenging at the top will misalign expectations.

If wages become a problem it won’t be resolved by selling 3 players. The whole structure will need changing. I don’t think we’ll continue to give first team wages to bench players (Barnes and Kelly) and giving super max contracts to the likes of Joelinton though

What have been the practical advantages to date over Villa’s ownership? Think the Sela deal would be larger than we could get otherwise. Great atmosphere around the club for 2.5 years helped on the pitch. We assume the stadium won’t be financed by loans but that is all tbc. Sold ASM to Saudi. Ladies team is doing brilliantly. PIF have money and power but they actually have to use it for it to be useful. PSR means they have to be creative to use the money and we haven’t seen much of that. They can use their money on infrastructure and academy - no concrete plans there. Academy will take time - Villa already have a top academy. Power? Again actually have to use it. Ladies team will be serious though. Innovative, ambitious and committed owners are more important than rich and powerful ones that are not also all 3 of the above for a club like us. Our owners have higher potential than Villa’s owners - I agree with that. But not seen the skill, commitment and ability to make things happen. It looks like they let the minority stakeholders run the club while only providing a budget and bureaucracy. Early days yet. Villa’s owners let one of the minority stakeholders or even just a pal - give Gerrard the keys to the club for 12 months or so. Our Owners haven’t done anything that silly.

Nunes has been in the PL for 2.5 seasons and never consistently played well. Dont know how he even got the Man City move.

Leaning towards option B. Chelsea attack is good. Enzo sometimes playing 10. Chelsea have scored lots of goals. Enzo best player at his bracket. TAA is a much better option than Virgil but he would leave me with a weak squad. Raya isn’t providing value at 5.5m. I want to downgrade him by at least .5m. Can get Timber for that money. But don’t want to use transfers to do that now. I like Rico Lewis as a long term hold still. Cheap enough to be a long term 4th choice DEF option.

Smal green arrow. Still far off the pace bur it’s ok. Still early days for the Champ. Finally starting to like my team at least. liking Enzo as an option. But Gabriel’s fitness is a major issue. Option (a) Almost certainly selling Dalot for a LIV defender. Likely TAA. And doing nothing else. Possible if Gabriel is fit. (b) Virgil (over TAA) + Enzo for Dibling. Means I don’t have to start Rogers every week. Better bench cover over busy period. Needs a fit Gabriel. (c) if Gabriel is out. Get Virgil and Kerkez. Sell Rico Lewis. If Gabriel doesn’t play midweek this is my likely move.

This new implementation of VAR is waiting for a massive blunder. Can’t keep ignoring blatant referee mistakes. That was a pen all day. 1-1 anyway.

I think seeing what’s happened to us has helped Villa prepare. And they have more saleable assets. Rather than give their Joelinton a new contract they sold him.

I'm all over the PSR thread. @80 covered my points. Also this: Agree fully. I don't think Eddie vs a different coach is the difference between midtable mediocrity and a CL push. At least not at this moment. Last season i felt we were broadly going in the right direction and a decision or two or some good luck away from a really good season. But from June we've lost all momentum as a club. PSR and our mismangement has come to light. I don't think a change of manager is going to really move the needle. Could be wrong. We could've hired Maresca or Slot in the summer imo and maybe they would work magic. But also those clubs have top 3 wage bills so with City faltering - they should be in position to capitalise.