The College Dropout

There was nothing to suggest he was going to be a lot better.

Said it for a long time - replacing Nick Pope is going to be tremendously difficult. £25m in Europe to find a top keeper - it’s just that easy

I’m counting this season as their third year. They’re on track for an 80 point season at the halfway point and currently sit 2nd in the league. If they only collect the same amount of points as we’ve managed so far in the final 19 games they would still be challenging for CL. They’ve been consistent - actually improving. 68 points + Europa QF, 66 points + CL QF & FA Cup semi is more impressive imo and if if if they can get 75 points or more that would be progress again. We have done wonders to qualify twice. But we’ve not sustained a challenge in back to back seasons let alone 3. Europa League football and a 6th place finish from here would be a gigantic success from our current position.

Cunha, Sesko and Mbeumo are good players. Whether they succeed or not is down to Man U. If they sold Cunha in the summer they would get their £60m back. We would not make our £55m back on Elanga or Wissa or £45m on Ramsey. If we signed Guehi for £60m he would still be worth £60m or more come the summer. If he’s fit he’s starting for England at the World Cup. Guehi’s stature in the game has grown since we were linked with him. He’s going to have his pick of nearly every club in the world. I like the Thiaw deal now and I was sceptical of the Guehi transfer. But I now think Guehi would’ve been a fantastic signing. He usually brings great composure and leadership and that’s what we need to keep as we phase out Schar and Burn.

Identifying profiles and having pull to sign high reputation players left with Ashworth and Staveley.

Tbf Villa have challenged for CL 3 seasons straight. It can be done but it shouldn’t be the baseline.

He can cross and he’s rapid. He has skills. But like Murphy - he doesn’t have the fundamental ability needed to be a high level player. So he can be a new version of Murphy at best. But we still need a better player in that position.

I don’t want to re litigate it. But Athony Elanga is not a very good footballer at this level. Even if he becomes an effective player this needs to be watershed moment in our transfer approach Ala Antony at Man U. I don’t rate Amorim but Man U’s transfer business has been better since they admitted their previous approach was yielding poor results.

Agreed both are good players imo. But poor profiles considering PSR constraints. It would be seen as good if we sold both for price we bought them even if they were both successful for us - that’s not great profiling considering the big fees. If it was just those 2 it would be fine. But then you throw in Ramsey, Elanga and suddenly it’s £200m we struggle to make back. The Vlach swap deal was the worse swap deal that was made. Everyone else swapped talented youngsters that might appreciate in value Maatsen, Dewsbury-Hall(ok not young but a good player), Onana. We got a 30 year old goalkeeper. Regardless though - I would’ve trusted Staveley and co. to continue to attract top talent and sell the vision to anyone that would listen. Righting their wrongs.

Since Ashworth left we’ve: sold 2 of our best youngsters in 2 critical positions. Legitimately costing us over £100m+ Signed Joelinton onto a massive contract when he was probably best sold signed Gordon (which is good) to a new contract Failed to sign on Isak causing us uncertainty and disruption this summer at the least spent £70m on Wolte spent £55m on Wissa spent £55m on Elanga spent £45m on Ramsey spent £35m on Thiaw spant £5m on Ramsdale for a loan spent £15m on Osula and likely to make £25m in sale value lost out on about a dozen targets ranging from Guehi to Etikite to Sesko Got Kelly for free and then sold him for £20m in the next window Not signed a new contract for Tino which is becoming a major issue sold Isak for £130m but it caused mass disruption to the summer sold Minteh for £30m - his value has likely increased sold Anderson for £35m his value has atleast doubled. And in return we signed Vlad for £20m. Essentially selling Anderson for £15m and he’s now worth at least £70m I think that’s 90% of the key first team activity over the last 22 months transfer and contract wise (not including extensions for Schar and Burn). It’s a mixed bag at best maybe 5 out of 10 probably a 4 imo. 2 years prior to that brought us: - Trippier for £10m - Isak for £60m - Tonali for £55m and an extension - Bruno for £35m and an extension and a release clause that has expired - Burn for £10m - Pope for £10m - Botman for £35m - Tino for £40m - Barnes for £45m - Hall for £35m - Wood in and out for £20m a piece - Gordon £45m Thwres more but that’s 8.5 out of 10 at worst. It’s the quality that got us our trophy and CL football. It’s night and day transfer wise since Ashworth and Staveley and co left. Our pull in the transfer market has fallen off a cliff since Staveley left. The profile of player we sign and sell has gone entirely in the wrong direction since Ashworth left.

Every place counts in the CL

I will say - when we were linekd with JP & Etikite (and even Woltmade) I did think there was a plan to play 2 up top as an option. Or with 1 of them as a 10 as they have all either done that or have th skillset to do so. Evolve us into more of a possession side. But so far it looks like Howe just wanted an option of someone that would drop off a bit more in largely what is the same role in the team. And he was just going to rotate them. That doesn't seem like the smartest allocation of funds. I thought the team needed to think beyond Joelinton and it seems that think beyond Joelinton is Jacob Ramsey and not a 1-1 up top. i doubt Ramsey has enough about his game off the ball to pull that off. Ramsey is old Willock at best.

This echoes what you can see if you've been trying to analyse Howe's approach over the last 4 years. Doesn't matter really who said it. You can see it. Yep the issue is that this team needs to do it with Joelinton, Burn & Pope. We are too weak, lack composure without them or better yet their replacements are.

TBH I feel like you sign 17yo's because they are talented and have a good enough mindset. Not necessarily because there's a squad space for them. A 17 yo may not be fundamentally ready for top level elite football - especially in midfield. If you have the budget you have a 25 man squad of senior players. That's 2 for every position and 3GKs. You add kids to that. At 19 they need minutes but they can get them on loan too. At 17, they can sit and watch mens football often. As of now Willock is one of 6 CMs and we play 3. Willock is not like Lascelles who is the 5th CB of 2. --- Separately - with Howe's style of play I think we'll always need a slightly older squad. There's a certain mentality Howe demands that benefits experience.

You don't sign a 17-yo with the intention of them adding big value in the current season. Doesn't make them bad transfers but doesn't address the current problems. We do need more long-term thinking.

These are running out of legs and have injuries. they bought a lad from Ajax in the summer but atm they are playing a 34-year-old fullback as a Wing Back.

I bumped into him the first GW of the season. He came into a cycling shop in Wembley with his family. They must have been getting them new bikes. His partner is really pretty and he has a beautiful family. I would've stopped and asked for a picture but lad was with his whole family, didn't want to disturb. I also spent an inordinate time looking at his lass which made it weird - tbf the sun was behind her, making it difficult to get a good look and I didn't notice she was with a man.

I know some models count a chance over 0.3Xg as a big chance. As in 1 in 3 times that opportunity is a goal as a minimum which is fair. That's what Howe's system is good at generating for the right type of 9. Central-ish penalty box shots are high Xg and likely to be big chances. Some players take lots of shots so will always have decent-ish Xg.. think Mitro was like that. So as an FPL guy I had to pay more attention to his Big Chances. ---- It is Howe's management style to ride out momentum in games through determination, work rate and a bit of luck. It's the same when we are good or bad. We've faced far worse "onslaughts" and he's not made any changes so Burnley was light by comparison. I said this years ago and got a load of stick for it. A few years later I appreciate sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Like it's not necessary as a boxer to react to every feint. I've seen Emery make more proactive subs which sometimes just kills the game for Villa. He shifts and it just doesn't work, team is lost. So the key is - can we do it well? It requires a high level of commitment and determination and physical exertion. My issue is that i don't think we can do it well enough without Joelinton. i think that style needs a Dan Burn and Joelinton (I include Schar, Pope etc. to a lesser degeree Trippier & Livra). Physical monsters that win duels, win headers, leaders, committed, composure, make every block etc. That leans into an older squad profile with experience and a certain type of character. I think we needed an Ederson or Gallagher in midfield, I'm not sure Ramsey is of that grinding physical monster mould - Gallagher is like a baby Tonali from memory. It's hard to get a young keeper - he needs to be a big personality (like a young Pickford), because the Howe system needs you to be big and bold. Come out and grab/punch these crosses time and again. I think that's a learning from his Bournemouth days. He likes Ramsdale as a player but having a Ramsdale in goal rather than a Pope was probably the difference between relegation and staying up for him. Likewise going for an unproven Solanke over a more establoshed ST - that choice cost them survival. So here he doesn't want to take risks.

Guys you have to watch football with your eyes.

He's not been sacked primarily because of performance. He's lost the job because he doesn't want to be a puppet and is causing issues behind the scenes. The Chelsea approach will damage a managers reputation. Truly ambitious managers like Maresca will want to move on. At best some may use it as an opportunity to then join a team that wants to win things consistently so will leave after a year or two. Chelsea are becoming a top 5 Brighton it seems.

The more that comes out, the more you can see Chelsea won't hire a top manager. Roman always wanted to win the league. This PE ownership - that's not the aim. The coach has to play kids they've bought. The coach has to put players in the shop window. Has to rotate etc. As imperfect as our owners are - I do believe they expect the coach to do the best on the pitch as possible and everyone is meant to support that. That's not the case at Chelsea. Sell value is more important than performance.

As good as can reasonably be expected? Qualified for the CL. Won 2 trophies.

Qualified for Europe for the first time in... however many years

Done a good job at Strasbourg aka Chelsea Lite

He's also a poor footballer and deeply unpopular with the fans. Spurs just want him off the books. It is a relatively low amount but more an indication that "the rest" aren't willing to throw big money at top 6 flops. I feel like Palace are losing recipes a bit with some of their attacking acquisitions.