Stottie

Look at who we have left to play home and away. Especially home. Howe's home record in 2022. P17 W12 D4 L1 F30 A10 Pts 40 Keep that up and given who we can take points off at home, Top 4 looks likely.

50% clean sheets now. Five Thirty Eight puts us our CL chances at 50% as well. Liverpool's game in hand fixture is Chelsea away.

Peak Wenger-era Arsenal goal. Completely clinical.

On this evidence you win the league if you're top at Christmas. Unless you're "mentality monsters" called Liverpool, in which case its a one in four probability.

We've got six games, four league and one in each cup by Jan 15. If things are still looking good, and a signing or two could cement Top 4, then I think we have to go for it. The risk is that super moneybags owners will buy Man U and Liverpool, and the task will only get harder. Howe and Ashworth can spot players, so I see less need for "so called top signings". No one would say that about Dan Burn, but he's helped get us to third. If the idea is for Bruno to play 8, I don't think we'd need a big name to play DM, since both CHs are good on the ball. Conversely if Wilson and Isak are both having fitness issues, we'll need a striker and they're not cheap.

Leicester last six P6 W4 D1 L1 F10 A1. However expected goals is 6.5 for, 6 against. We're outperforming xG too, but not to that extreme degree.

Bruno has to be replaceable because of the risk of him leaving for Real, PSG etc. To stop this happening, we need to get into CL asap and to pray the new Brazil manager picks him. We got him into the WC debate, he's massively benefitted from coming to NUFC, but we didn't get him into the starting eleven. Pretty much all the others would be replaced due to age or ability upgrades. I've just seen the match cam and the pen is stonewall. It's actually a brilliant reflex save, given that the guy's hands start behind his back.

I see all of our players as replacable, even Bruno, Trippier, and Botman, but ASM deserves a proper go at Eddie Howe NUFC 2.0 before we think of replacing him. There is too much talent there, and it is a rare talent. Holding onto Wilson (perceived injury prone) and Almiron (perceived no end product) has paid dividends, and Maxi may make it a third. For ASM himself, a bit more shooting practice wouldn't go amiss. Trippier and Schar pack much more power.

Thuram has big numbers in the Bundesliga if you look at minutes played, not simply appearances.

I'd normally have bad feelings about this game, but Eddie and the lads have been excellent at overcoming whatever doubts I have, usually based on performances under previous managers, perceived curses, and the like. We could have done with playing them in the first eight or so games of the season when the Brenda Nout stories abounded, but it mightn't make any difference. Some of Leicesters recent form has been due to easier fixtures, and we're not an easy fixture any more. They're undoubtedly on form though and have a talented squad, so it'll be a tough test.

The decisions and the Miggy chance should not be forgotten when assessing the performance. The actual goal being fortunate also makes it easy to downgrade how the lads did.

Yes, there is so much going on around the club. injuries aside a tidal wave of good news, that the City performance and Wolves goal are easily forgotten. The stats people, Wey Aye Scout Kev and Sanjay on Twitter, both said Almiron's numbers were all up BEFORE he went on the scoring run. Kev's first article on the NUFC.co.uk website now looks like prophecy. The reason I'm saying this is that pre injury this season, ASM's production numbers were all up and were leading the side. Shot creating actions per minute played etc. The classic ASM criticism has always been "fancy tricks with not enough end product", but in those first games in 22/23, he was the biggest attacking contributor to the team. If (I want to say "Since") we have become a Top 4 team, we're going to have to play against probably 10-12 out of 19 teams in a low block. That will shut down the counter and space in behind, so dribbling past or through them will only become more useful. This last time may prove to be an injury too far for ASM, you never know, but he was looking promising before it, and promising in a Howe team way, not a "give to to him on the halfway line and pray" Steve Bruce way.

Just thinking about how much I would happily pay for a pint to not have to watch this halftime entertainment.

Yeah commentary is on left channel only.

The circus at ManU won't have helped Sancho, but given where he was two years ago, it must have disappointed him to not go to the WC and to have not deserved to go to the WC.

Rice has sixth most touches in the league and most passes into the final third, two stats which Trippier is very high in. I'm pretty sure he's very high, as in top or near-top, in "progressive carries", basically carrying the ball forward. His defensive stats are also excellent. It's the kind of signing who would make us less reliant on Trippier while still playing a defensive LB, possibly to unleash Maxi or Isak at LW.

I think a lopsided formation with a defensive LB works if we have ASM at left forward.

Tempting to say something about Giroud not being a goalscorer.

England's play against the USA was all about risk minimization. They basically played for a draw. The change I'd like to see England try is Wilson on with Kane at #10. Kane loves coming deep and is great at finding runners when there are others ahead of him. He's more of a Sheringham than a Shearer. Though he hasn't with us, Wilson played in a two with Josh King at Bournemouth and knows how it works.

Rudiger did that high kicking running thing he did to Almiron last season again in this match. The player he tried to mock this time, Asano, scored the winning goal ten minutes later. Justice was served!

Tifo are usually into stats, but they've not delved very deeply there. The main stat I would push is that we have only conceded one goal or fewer in 13 out of 15 games. Had the ref blown up on time against Liverpool, it would have been 14 out of 15. This means that whatever shortcomings our attackers have, they only have to get one goal for us to get points. In the seven games with clean sheets, one goal would have been enough for all three points. One goal is a decent setpiece, opponent error, or lucky deflection. That's not hard to do when you are playing in the other teams half. Against Chelsea, our average positions have seven players in their half. In the Tifo video, the first guy talks about us upgrading the defence with Trippier back, Pope and Botman, but dismisses this as just a "more stable base". The stats from January, especially if you discount the Spurs blowout and last twenty minutes of Man C away, said we already had a Top 4 defence. In the last 20 games of 2021-22, we conceded 21 goals, 10 of them in those two matches. Only 11 goals against in the other 18 matches. Upgrade that to remove any traces or suspicion of luck, put a superfit midfield in front, and you get a title chasing defence. On the attacking side, the big differences this season have been Trippier and the high press forcing mistakes. Trippier has also been the catalyst for Almiron.

One good game from Toney and the knives were coming out over Southgate's selection. Had he picked him, the knives would have come out over this. No wonder they call it "the impossible job".

Nice house, but look at the state of the pitch.

I thought he looked wicked in the glimpse we got, especially for someone just off the plane. The goals against Liverpool were sensational and its only the other crappy narratives about that match that stopped him getting the credit he deserved. The one-on-one he missed against Bournemouth? Palace? was down entirely to him solo pressing. He's got the same languid look about him as Chris Waddle, he doesn't look like he's giving 100% but it is very deceptive. Callum Wilson is extremely sharp but needs goals created for him. Isak looks more capable of doing it on his own. Prem players listed by expected goals per 90, 200 mins minimum to qualify. The offside goal against Liverpool will not count in his xG. If you look at non-penalty xG, Isak is still eighth, above Salah, Mitro, Harry Kane etc. Wilson is fifth. Top is Darwin Nunez, I fully understand folks hating on Liverpool, but that lad is a player.

Yes, no surprise to see him double-down on the pessimism a few days after the Saudi airline does a photoshoot at SJP.