Stottie

Add on two points for the Palace robbed goal and I think that's a good start. Eighth most goals scored, sixth fewest conceded, with both of the top two played says its a fair position. Miggy joint top scorer!

Man City type goal.

Great job lads! It's my birthday tomorrow and it certainly feels like it.

October goal of the month!

Yep, out of control.

Bruno at #8, Trippier, and Wilson in the same team hasn't happened before, no? Whatever the formation is, Howe will have told them all what their role is, so let's see what happens. He's played unexpected formations before like Chelsea away and its gone well, so I'm still quite hopeful.

In Eddie we trust! Doesn't look like our normal 4-3-3 but good luck to whatever it is.

Just Understat's numbers but our expected points per game this season has actually gone up vs. last season starting from Jan 1. Last season starting Jan 1 was 27.33 points expected off 19 games (1.43 per game), versus 38 actual points. We massively overperformed by sneaking many single goal wins. This season so far has been 10.34 points expected off 7 games (1.47 per game), versus 8 actual points. Actual points is disappointing, but expected ones is not bad when you consider the difficulty of the fixtures included in this small sample. Expected points is based on chances alone, and does not consider decisions. 1.47 pts per game is a 56 point season. I think we're doing okay and pretty much as expected, but have been unlucky with decisions and injuries. The Palace decision alone cost us two points, which would have had us at 10pts off seven games, a much better looking start. The injuries have underlined an ongoing lack of squad depth and prevented Howe from using the bench from going for it in games where we are dominating possession. Bruno's injury sounds like it was caused by him playing in a game (Tranmere) in which he ideally would not have featured, and feels like a case of injuries begetting other injuries. Tranmere were kunts though, and I'm pleased Howe did the necessary to win that game. For Krafth, Darlow and Lascelles, if not for the cup itself.

If you have time to waste, fbref shows us in the top 7 for lots of metrics. Shots per game, shortest average distance from goal per shot, passes into the box, crosses etc. The defensive stats are all sound, if that's not obvious from watching the games. The one stat we are rock bottom on is "expected assists minus assists", in other words, chances actively created but missed. Our goals per shot is also very low, even though we are shooting on average at the fourth shortest distance from the goal. So we can add poor finishing to injuries, more sinned against than sinning with decisions, and weird circumstances like the Brighton heatwave and Bournemouth mournfest, both I reckon the two worst performances. Ditch the morbid stuff at the Bournemouth game, get the flags up and the music on, and the increased momentum probably gives us two more points. The injuries include that awful Tranmere game and Maxi running the length of the pitch to defend an attack featuring a clear shove. Just keep working hard, be patient, and it will come.

No need for the Spanish Inquisition, but not a good set of results so far. It's all very good doing "evolution" but its not going to happen with Championship level wide players against an organized defence. If we did spend all the budget that was available, then fair dos, the road ahead is a long one, but if we kept some money back based on Miggy's output in preseason, oh man what a headfake.

Arsenal played him in a DM-type holding role didn't they? Maybe they were right after all.

Unlucky not to score. Not his best game by far, but still the pick of our midfielders.

Isak's movement could be a bit better, Shearer pointed it out at half time, but we're not getting him involved enough. If the opposition are putting two on him, someone else should be free and be able to drag them around. In a game with 70% possession and 20 shots, we need our main man to shooting more (three) than our center halves (Schar, also three).

Credit to Bournemouth who earned what they got, but we were poor. A bit lucky to get a penalty, if I'm being honest. Ditch VAR and we don't get it. The biggest issue is no quality at all from the wings or from AM. Not especially good movement from Isak either, compared to Wilson who makes poor crosses into chances, but he's only just joined the club. We hit the post twice, Joelinton's was the inside of the post, so not a complete disaster, but not good enough for where we want to be.

C'mon lads! This is there to be won!

Sheareresque, no, Sholaesque!! COME ON!

Weak effort but maybe only our third shot from open play. Need more.

Frustrating, but we've hit the post twice and forced a couple of decent saves. All were from set pieces, partly due to lots of fouls by them, but we need more from open play. Isak is clearly quality, but he still lacks the understanding and anticipation Wilson has. Keep pegging away and something will happen. Give it fifteen and then push Bruno right up if nothing is happening.

Get Isak onto some of his passes.

Did the Queen use Tomket tyres?

I wonder what kind of shape Costa is in. The instincts and nous might still be there, but I doubt the body is, especially if he's not been at a club for half a year.

Shame about Darlow and good luck to Karius. Welcome to NUFC! Whether it was a concussion or not or deliberate or not, the guy's been through the wringer. I must admit I was happy to see Liverpool lose that final and that last one this year, but its only because the English football media fawn all over them. If there was any kind of objectivity, I wouldn't care either way.

Real Ronaldo vs. Chris Sutton, yep I think I know that one.

I know its old ground but for the Edwards comments on Bruce, all he had to do in season 1 was keep the defensive structure Rafa had introduced. Even then, it was Dubravka who kept us up that year. In season 2, Bruce started badly, but had empty grounds protecting him. The team had Callum Wilson, and then Joe Willock on fire. Most of the defensive structure had gone by this time, but Fulham being really bad kept the pressure off. The finishing positions in those two seasons are mostly irrelevant because 13th can happen if you see off relegation with two games to go and win those games against teams on the beach. In season 3, we reached a historical point of no return, no wins in 14, and would definitely have gone down without a complete overhaul. This is what Howe did, mostly with the same squad Bruce had had by reintroducing some defensive structure. The third worst team ended up as Burnley vs. Everton, a huge step up on Fulham, and way beyond what Bruce could have managed. We would definitely have gone down. I like the comparisons between Potter and Rodgers, which suggest Potter must take the Chelsea job while his stock is high. Aside from Man Utd who were clearly unready at the start of the season, they are yet to face any top team this year and their position may be artificial. They played us in a heatwave and only turned it on after 70 minutes when it became a battle of the benches.

This smacks of Chelsea buying into Moneyball, especially if Chelsea bought players on metrics and not who Tuchel wanted. The thing with Moneyball and managers is that the higher a manager goes, the more it seems to be about controlling and motivating big egos and less about simple tactics. Potter may be the best tactical manager in the league, I couldn't tell you, but he won't have worked with this level of ego. Howe with us keeps insisting he wants no arseholes in the dressing room. That is not going to show up in a player's passing stats or expected goals.