Stottie

Again on the seventh-o-meter, in the past 21 games, we've conceded 20 goals. Or if you prefer 10 goals in that past 19 games against teams not called Man City or Tottenham, the only two teams to score twice in those 21 games. fwiw, 9 clean sheets in 21 games is 42.8%. For us to NOT get seventh, we'll have start conceding more goals. With a lineup including a better midfielder, probably a better keeper, probably a better center half, and probably a better right back. Based on preseason and the two games so far, the team as a whole is moving the ball better and getting 10% or so more possession. In the 2-1 home win against Brighton a few months ago, we only managed 32.4% possession. On Saturday, it was pretty much 50% up to the 70th minute.

After two rounds of games, I think things are looking good for seventh. Leicester and Man U look poor, and we're already four points up on West Ham. We were outplayed by Brighton, but I don't think it was as bad as some posters are making out. They coped with Bruno better than anyone so far, Chelsea and Arsenal included, so I can't see that being a regular occurrence. The second half was bleak with just the Burn header, but we got Wilson in one on one first half and it would have been given had he got the ball in the net. I also expect at least one attacking player to come in.

A fine away point. Not a convincing performance, but I'll take it. Both teams had spells in the first half, but we were poor after the break. The BDB header was our only shot second half.

Probably lucky to not be behind, with one off the line and that Llalana chance, but actually came into it during the half and finished the stronger. Also made two chances for Wilson, which is always good. Caught in possession badly a few times, Bruno and Joelinton not at the pace of the game, but we're still level and it's over to Eddie to solve the puzzle.

I'd have wanted Maddison over Paqueta due to him being league proven, but now Shelvey is out, we need cover for Bruno. Paqueta looks like he could play deeper, in a double pivot at least if not on his own. He has the physicality to do it. Maddison is pure AM. At a push, Paqueta can also play false nine, which is good given our squad lightness up top and appeals to the Cesc fanboy in me.

City might have had a stronger shout if they still had Jesus and Fernandinho. I've read about Fernandinho being the older brother or daddy figure of the Brazilians in the PL, with the Liverpool players and Fred at Man U going to hang out with him. Brazil have a really strong team now, and if Paqueta does move, he's going to have to settle in fast and keep on performing because competition for places is fierce. fwiw, Bernardo Silva is just about the most mobile player in the entire league, so "just cover the same ground as him" could well be a poisoned chalice.

Not buying Cornet, who was cheaper than Ekitike, said to me that we're aiming higher. Cornet was actually good value and made sense as a backup, but we're not looking for a backup. Not with the large number of "not quites" already in our squad.

Unless something goes wrong, I can't see us conceding many goals. The main question is whether we can score enough to turn draws into wins. We managed it last season even without Wilson and Trippier, but there were enough single goal victories in there for it to remain a concern.

I reckon Ekitike money plus overdraft says we get at least one high level attacking player. I've no idea who it'll be.

I'm going to cheat and not click anything till we play Brighton. That should be more indicative than swatting aside Forest. fwiw, if we give him the 3-3 Brentford game when he had Covid (officially? down as Tindall), Eddie Howe's league record is now P28 W14 D5 L9. 50% wins and 1.68 points per game!

Sell them Darlow.

That Kevin Maguire football finances guy said Leicester's wages were at 85% of turnover or whatever that metric is. The level to aim for is below 70%. That 85% is with fans in the stadium. It was higher without them before, as Nucasol says above.

We've dominated possession and got the ball into good areas. Plenty of shots and should really be ahead. We need to get more targets in the box to create bigger chances. Set pieces have also been poor.

The correct verdict on our window won't come till Sep 2nd at the earliest. It may come later if we sign an unfancied player Howe then turns around. That's something Bournemouth Howe would do. Brighton under Ashworth would buy players no-one has heard of. There is still lots of time, but as the window draws to a close, selling clubs will become more desperate, and desirable players weighing their options, e.g., Cornet, Tielemans will make their choices. In our case, the option may have been to pay the Saudi tax to get players in early or wait and drive harder bargains. It's easy to forget but we are coming out of a pandemic where clubs lost lots of gameday money. With Liverpool and Man City in the first five games, I see them are free hits where it doesn't matter what happens. For me, it's fine for players to come in as the window closes and for Howe to ease them in as he did with Bruno. The most important thing for the first ten games is to not have stupid expectations that the media will feed on and put Howe under undeserved pressure.

Leicester's defence is coming off a poor second half to the season. Their XG against from Jan 1st this year has been worse than Watford's, so they need to strengthen, not sell their best defender. Soyancu is out of contract in 2023 and likely to go soon, so selling Fofana would also mean Leicester looking at replacing two CHs. DM Ndidi is increasingly missing games with injury and they need a new keeper once Schmeichel goes. Tielemans may not go until the final day of the window, so another player like Maddison or Barnes may be their best hope of getting in some funds that they'll actually have time to use.

I know Transfermarkt's valuations are not gospel, but Leicester's top four most valuable players on there all have deals that expire in 2023 or 2024. Most valuable is actually Fofana, but you get my point. They're in a bad situation with their existing players, never mind how much money is or isn't available to spend on new ones. Just one point on the graph, but the Liverpool approach to this problem was first sell the less important player (Mane) and with him out of the way, then break their wage structure to re-sign the crucial one (Salah). Clearout, then begrudgingly pay the players you must keep whatever it takes. Unfortunately for them, Leicester have completely lost control of Tielemans, who looks like he'll go for peanuts whenever Arsenal or someone can be bothered to bid. The lack of rush about it suggests there will be no price war, and that Leicester will not get any usuable funds from it until very late in the window. Lingard has just proved how much money you can get as a free agent. It's a big incentive for players to not re-sign deals.

I was about to write something about Tielemans but Foxedup has way surpassed the drivel I had down. Leicester will be shifting someone once the season starts. Its almost nailed on. Whether they sell Maddison is a different question, but I don't think our people are stupid enough to waste time if there were little chance of success. It must be a possible goer.

Yes, the club may be proactively mentioning ffp to counter expectations that our new owners have a bottomless pit of cash and can/should pay more than other clubs. Starting the window by signing an expensive CB and a keeper when we need attacking players also pours salt onto claims of funds limited by ffp or our owners' pockets.

This does have a marquee signing feel to it. Not in the sense of getting a "name" per se, but in the sense of amassing top level players when the odd chance to get them arises. The top level players in question all have to fit a certain personality profile, have reasonable wages, and be willing to join a team without European football. Those three things will limit the pool. It's hard to see other logic after going so hard to get Ekitike and now going for an AM not a striker. I wonder if Maddison plus ASM in a two is a backup plan for when Wilson is rested or injured. In that situation, Bruno can be pushed up to #8, though you'd think the main plan would be for him to plan further back with Maddison at AM. Whatever it is, the schedule will be weird this year with the WC coming mid season and more fixtures being crammed together. Five subs changes things up as well.

I had to look it up myself, so I'm not claiming any great footballer observation skills. Mount is the player fbref's AI suggests as second top best match for comparisons https://fbref.com/en/stathead/player_comparison.cgi?show_form=1&request=1&sum=0&comp_type=by_type&dom_lg=1&player_id1=ee38d9c5&p1yrfrom=2021-2022&player_id2=5e861944&p2yrfrom=2021-2022&player_id3=9674002f&p3yrfrom=2021-2022&player_id4=507c7bdf&p4yrfrom=2021-2022&player_id5=38ce1150&p5yrfrom=2021-2022&player_id6=4a5a45c7&p6yrfrom=2021-2022 With England, Maddison being behind Smith Rowe and Bellingham is presumably Southgate not liking him. Favouritism wouldn't be a new accusation for Southgate. Maddison not being in the England conversation could be a strong reason for him to move from Leicester. You'd expect younger players to look up to Trippier, 100% sound lad who played for Simeone, and he might be bending Maddison's ear.

If the stated release clause exists, Cornet will definitely move this window. I think the delay is the player waiting to see what his best option is. He'll know that it may be as a fallback choice for a team pursuing other players. I quite like the idea of stringing Cornet along to deadline day, and seeing how Almiron does in the first few games played in anger. Give him one last chance to prove he's been unBruced.

JM's numbers are almost identical to Mason Mount, including the defensive contribution ones. I don't think you'd say Chelsea or England are built around Mason Mount or especially vulnerable due to him. They just play with DMs, which is fairly standard these days.

Ah, but you can like the club without liking the fans. What Leicester did was amazing, Vardy, Mahrez, and Kante, off the scale scouting.I cannot stand Liverpool fans, especially the celebrity ones who cannot go five minutes without mentioning it and the "we're underappreciated/best front three of all time" victim complex ones, but I admire the club. I think the equivalent to this transfer would be us selling Bruno to West Ham for 45M. I would be livid!

I had a look too and my impression is that they are still stuck in "who are Noocarsel?" type denial. This will switch to fume if/when they realise its going to happen and happen with a fee that is way below Maguire, Grealish etc. Leicester aren't a club who've done a whole lot wrong, European semis last season, so this is an unfortunate turn of events for them. In terms of picking off a top-class player with the added bonus of weakening a rival, I would rather it have been another club up there, like West Ham or Arsenal. Having a team like Leicester challenging for Europe and beating Man City and Liverpool on their day is good for the league.

I'd be fuming if I were a Leicester fan, this is a really bad situation they've created for themselves, but it looks like this is definitely on for us. With Maddison being so clearly an AM, a really pointy one, I wonder if the equation with him relies on a Miggy/Fraser level of pressing and defensive contribution from one of the wings. LW is ASM in a free role, LB is Targett holding, with Joelinton also marshalling the left side, RB is Trippier coming forward as an outball and progressive passer, and RW is a grafter expected to cover back for Trippier.