Jagten

He’s a slightly above average premier league winger. 60m is a unhedged full send on his upside. We have money but we cannot afford to miss like that.

No the point was you don’t understand expectations.

Do I think you were seriously recommending, or supposing, the swap? No. Do I think the point was stupid? Yes.

Wut. No stats guy thinks Wood is better than Isak. Stats is also about estimating latent quantities, so literally the opposite of this. Chris Wood also ran really hot so idk man

90th percentile assists but 50ish percentile expected. One of these things is not true. It’s a big bet on it being the former.

He’s a slightly above average premier league winger. These numbers are not good.

hmmmmm

Mbuemo for 60mm obviously had poor r/r. It’s a huge bet on his underlying numbers improving with no downside protection.

Liverpool’s recruitment actually got a lot worse as Klopp’s influence grew. Man City’s current malaise is a mostly a recruitment failure.

Mitchell was always 2013’s good idea but I hope we secure an independent replacement

Not a lot of value in what Brentford would demand imo. 14 non-penalty goals from ~7 expected is historically pretty dangerous. He’s pretty good but 30m is your cap

Letsss fucking gooo. This is art

This is a masterclass in how to exploit our weaknesses jfc

We are just not very good at breaking down low blocks.

I think the r/r at his price point is actually not good.

If it makes you feel better ~40% of the transfer fee saving will have gone to signing bonuses and wages. Certainly not free.

Real problem now. Both painfully post-peak, increasingly aggressive liabilities.

So who are are taking someone from Juventus given this mental fee?

Fwiw

Don’t have data that far back but probably close

Letting Martin last this long was gross incompetence. This is all-time Premier League bad

He's a lot better

A 7-8th result is then average, given the investment, so the value add is probably nil. I think it's a lower bound for not considering us to have made bad decisions somewhere.

Literally every analytics guy I know thought he was rubbish

This is an extremely optimistic perspective that was and is not unanimous. Milan opinion is that Reijnders was an upgrade. I did not, and do not, like the transfer.