Jagten

Because empirically this has no predictive power of future performance, which estimating expectations from the playing career do. Converse to your analysis which is a distrust of stuff you don’t understand

Where are the great seasons? Are they in the room with us now?

This is wrong. His numbers right now are similar to historical performance 💀 This isn’t remotely sophisticated modeling but this is nuts for 60mm

My point is people were very keen to consider him something that he’s not, and held very strong biases. As those biases fade they have to reconcile with what he is.

The unpopular opinion is that he was never as good as Bruno, or as people thought he was, and the opinion change is a violent reversion to the mean. Same happened when people overrated Gordon’s ability.

He actually wasn’t that good for forest. His underlying numbers were not, and never have been, good, but stats is for nerds ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This is so annoying how obviously bad this was and how it was so obvious to every other recruitment team

Hired by a recruitment firm, with bonus that he’s a EH man. Nope.

The lesson is limit Howe’s influence, and bin his nephew.

I agree, but we paid far too much and it was an obvious miss. Not much to be done now and I hope recruitment improves moving forward.

This is what average players do. Sometimes bad, sometimes do good stuff.

For sure. Howe is basically not an elite transfer operator, and he tends to engage in power struggles that give him an outsized influence. I think you can chart a regression in our purchases as his influence has grown.

I am quite concerned about how bad our transfer business has become.

The thesis case paying the premium was no doubt that his PL experience required less adaptation and that he therefore carried less risk. Amusing to never play him anyway, and when we have his performances have been so bad you'd be disappointed if he cost 15m from Scotland. The obvious predictably of this being a miss is depressing.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

+Isak disasterclass. Wissa a very bad overpay too

Yeah, clearly. He should take real criticism for the summer recruitment tho.

That probably doesn't matter because he doesn't seem very good.

Our recruitment has steadily been getting worse as Howe's influence grew.

150m on Elanga, Wissa and Ramsey was, on reflection, probably not a good idea.

I think this summer's transfer business was basically not good. With our restrictions, you cannot miss like we have.

Only elite players sustain outperformance. Average players experience mean reversion. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

He had a big outperformance of his underlying numbers which have always been mid af. Fans get shit wrong all the time.

He is an average premier league footballer who we paid too much for. Opinions will polarize until this is accepted.

Yes but it was us who spent 100mm on Barnes (who I think is fine) and Elanga (less fine). Those are looking like unforced errors