It's a punt nothing more - if it comes off great - else - not a massive amount wasted (In new world terms)
I don't think Rafa works like that, he's so meticulous with his buys, and yep he does get it wrong now and again as he's said himself. But nothing more than a punt ! With Rafa's big brain, nah not for me.
Yes Rafa would have done some homework on him, and will have his stats but it's still a punt as he's not proved himself at any level.