Paullow

Crazy, after getting 2 wins, and I think 11 points on that 19 match league run, there might actually be a chance we finish in 12th place. Fulham vs Newcastle Arsenal vs BHA Wolves vs Man Utd (probably easier than it looks given Man Utd guaranteed 2nd, and have Europa final on the horizon) West Ham vs Southampton Liverpool vs Palace Now, Fulham are still favourites to beat Newcastle (6/5 at most places), and had a decent point the other day, but if we were to match the result on the final day of 2 seasons ago (ironically Rafa's last match, will history repeat itself...) then a 3 goal swing would take us above Wolves, and it would also mean that Palace and Southampton would need to win as well. On the other hand, we could just as easily finish 16th, or even 17th if we lost, and Brighton sneaked a point, and Burnley beat Sheff Utd comfortably, but 12th would be pretty shocking considering that pathetic run we went on. Quite a big difference 12th to 17th, at least from big Mike's pockets POV.

I kind of asked this on the general NUFC thread, but nobody replied. Would most rather just finish 16th or 17th, or would you rather we got 6, or even 7, points from the last 3 to finish say 12th? The thought of listening to Bruce say 'ah finished 12th ya kna' makes me opt for the former.

Would you want Newcastle to pick up as many points as they can in the last 3 games, and end up finishing say 12th / 13th, or would you rather they got say 2 points and ended up 16th or 17th? Finishing 12th would be an absolute joke considering we were odds on to go down, and even in the bottom 3 of the live league with 9 games to go.

Happens all the time. Leicester were gone with about 9 (admittedly more) games to go, and they ended up going on a run out of nowhere the year before the league. Sunderland drew at Man City with a late Mannone error, and everyone thought they were done, but they then won at Stamford Bridge, beat Man Utd, and a couple of other good results and stayed up. Villa went on a good run towards the end of last season, and pulled a comfortably looking Watford in. West Ham under Brooking as caretake going a bit further back Bryan Robson's WBA.

We are still in a great position. Odds-wise it's like 1/50 Fulham, 20/1 Newcastle (in from around 35/1 pre kick off). Nobody would swap positions, but from a Fulham POV, it really is take it game by game - their next 2 are much more favourable than ours, doesn't mean they will get 6 points, probably won't, but game by game they could win them, and it wouldn't be a huge shock, and then if they are within 3 points, with GD in their favour by the time we play Sheff Utd, then this place will be a mess. Still in a good position, and should really be fine, but not done and dusted yet. I'd say 2 or 3 at the moment.

Bump

Arsenal winnable for them, but not us, or are you saying Fulham vs Newcastle is not winnable for us?

4. Current odds 1/4 us, 7/2 Fulham, so obviously a hell of a lot better than a couple of matches ago when we were odds on. 3 defeats in a row for Fulham, and all of them fairly 'winnable' on paper (4 including the expected defeat to Man City), and some of them lost from decent positions. Still not fully confident, just because we have to play them on the final day, but beat Sheff U, and nick a couple of points from the tough 5 games coming up, then hopefully we will be 4 points clear going into that potential huge match. They will almost certainly have to beat us on the last game of the season now, although as someone said earlier, that may not be a bad thing from their perspective, i.e. nothing to defend. Fixture placing could be crucial. Ours isn't great, bar maybe Man City, who will be able to put out any team to get the job done, but Fulham play Arsenal next weekend, just 3 days after they get back from Prague in the Europa, and Man Utd may well have 2nd place confirmed (can't finish 1st, can't finish 3rd) by the time they play Fulham on the 2nd last day, and I'd far rather play a weaker Man Utd, than a weaker Man City. Still a few possible twists and turns to come, but looking so much better than it was.

They've literally won 9 (and drawn 3) of their last 12 league games, and one of those draws was a 97th minute equaliser, which I'd imagine would feel more like a win at the time. They do have some tough games remaining, and most of them do have something to play for, but you can't really argue with their form over the past couple of months.

From a wanting Newcastle to stay up perspective, I wasn't sure what I was wanting last night. I think Brighton are and were the better side, but then Palace did have 3 extra points on the board (before kick off). Brighton's goal difference was -5 (compared to our -17), and their 6 league results before yesterday were: Leeds 0 BHA 1 BHA 0 Fulham 0 BHA 1 Spurs 0 Liverpool 0 BHA 1 Burnley 1 BHA 1 BHA 0 Villa 0 So unbeaten in 6, 12 points picked up, obviously not many goals scored, but only 1 conceded. They were around 22-28/1 to go down, but I think a lot of that would have been on the assumption of extending their run over Palace. That was a bitter blow for them, no doubt about it, and they're now around 11/1 to go down, but I still find it hard to see them not picking up enough points/wins to have no real concerns, despite just being the one point ahead of us. They have WBA, Southampton and Newcastle in their next 4 games, so I think we'll know far more about their relegation credentials after that period. I'd have been more confident of Palace sinking like a stone had they lost, but think that win all but confirms their safety.

2 wins, 2 draws, and TEN defeats in the last 14 league games. Fuckin 8 points from 14 games. That's in addition to losing to Brentford's second string and out of the other cup. The 'performance' and 'encouraging signs' will likely keep him in for a few more matches.

Thick skin? He's one of the most thin skinned tw@ts you'll come across...

It was a bit disheartening to hear that instead of having 8 or 9 teams looking over their shoulder, it was now down to 6 or 7 in that pre match interview. Probably referring to Everton's win over Liverpool.

It's just wu luck, isn't it?

A 'gritty', 'spirited', 'brave' 1-0 defeat would be one of the worst results possible here.

We're quite fortunate though, because as Steve says, we're not the only one, and there are 8 or 9 teams looking over their shoulder.

3 times. That was the talk on here the other day. Suddenly, (potentially) 7 points from 3 matches, another winnable game to come, and turning positive performances into results, and the situation isn't quite so rosy.

Fulham have only won twice all season man...

Draw the best result from a wanting Newcastle to stay up perspective?

It's the type of match that I just wouldn't see us picking anything up from. Within 6 points, better goal difference, and still have to play us at home, so I think they will be happy enough with this point, but they really do need to beat Sheff U on Saturday from their perspective.

It’s not the result. It’s the standard of the football. It's obviously bad tonight but we're still leagues ahead of the malaise around Sheffield United/Arsenal/Villa. We were absolutely broken then. We just need to make sure the run of defeats we're inevitably going to have doesn't terminally effect the morale, as was clearly the case before Jones arrived. Encouraging signs apparently

I don't understand this viewpoint. We are a point behind Burnley and Brighton, and 4 points off Palace and Southampton who both appear in freefall. How are the only two teams involved is and Fulham? For what it's worth, Fulham are clearly improving but so are we (in the last 4 games). However, if Fulham can close a 7 point gap to us why are people writing off the four teams mentioned above when we're 1 and 4 points behind them respectively? It wouldn't shock me if we got a result of sorts tonight. Such a long way to go and if Fulham beat Burnley in their next game I still won't panic because it keeps Burnley involved too. The preference is obviously a Burnley win but my point being with 15 games to go it is far too early to be worrying about remaining fixtures etc. We need 15 points from 15 games, if we lose the next 2 and beat Wolves we will still be on track. If we lose all 3 let's see what Fulham actually get from their next 3 games which according to most on here/twitter are all a guaranteed 3 points. I admit I am very influenced a lot by odds, and admittedly, particularly in this type of market, there probably will be more pessimistic money going on Newcastle going down, but not enough for us to be 9/4 at most places, whereas Burnley are 8s and 9s, Palace 10-12/1, Brighton 20-25/1 etc.: https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation There's got to be more to that than just current money going on, or expected money going on to influence that, and Bruce, injuries etc. will certainly play a part. Alternatively, if you look at the 'to stay up' market: https://www.betfred.com/sports/event/17449531.2 Betfred not currently taking bets on anyone bar Palace 1/33, Burnley 1/33, Newcastle 2/7, Fulham 13/8, and the other two a lot longer, so from that perspective, it definitely does look like if anyone is most vulnerable to get dragged into it, then it's Newcastle.