Paullow

Pontefract 2 Carlton Town 2 That means Shildon have a reprieve, they would have been down had Carlton won, but that draw means that they will now have to beat Grimsby Borough on Saturday and hope that Carlton don't beat playoff chasing Dunston to move into the relegation playoff places (a draw will definitely no longer be enough for them). It also means that Carlton can't catch Consett now.

Just looking at the BBC table and at the business end of the season, from the last 5 games, the below teams have collected the following points: Millwall 5 (5 from 6) Blackburn 3 WBA 8 (and have at least put together back to back wins) Coventry 6 Sunderland 9 Norwich 5 (or 7 from 8) Preston 9 (but were coming from far back, and have now lost their last 2) Watford 4 - and almost certainly out of the race

They couldn't have really asked for a better set of results tonight, especially with that 95th equaliser by the Coventry keeper. Never really convinced by Blackburn whenever I see them. A negative GD is never a great sign either. Coventry do have a couple of very winnable home games coming up, so that point could end up being vital for them, but I'd have much preferred a winner in that match.

Yeah, at least there's currently a team leading in the Blackburn match, but Preston getting battered, Norwich losing to out of sorts QPR, and even Watford going from 1-0 to 1-3 at home to struggling Cardiff. That would almost certainly rule Watford out of the running and they still have to go to Sunderland. Crazy how nobody can seem to string 4 or so results together to put themselves in a great position.

Just saw Coventry have Reading and Birmingham both at home after this so probably hoping they win here tbh. Gyokeres is a good player to watch. Suspect he will be playing PL football next season regardless of what happens to Cov.

I'll still keep an eye on the CL matches in case either Bayern or Benfica get an early goal, but neither tie looks great from a neutral perspective. Think I'll mainly be watching Blackburn vs Coventry on Sky Sports Arena (so should be proper coverage and not the red button shite) as that's a big game in the playoff race. Sunderland will be hoping for a draw so that both drop points, but not sure what the worst result is for them? Blackburn are in the better position and have an extra game in hand, so probably them winning is worst, but then their final 4 games are very tough as well, so they could still probably be caught (by s'land) even if they were to win tonight.

I see SkyBet have finally worked out that 'promotion' and 'to win the playoffs' are the same, and they are now 66/1 in both of those markets. Not quite as high as Betway's 100/1 or PP's 80/1 between their Cardiff and Birmingham matches, but still long enough for an 'emotional hedge' bet. A win over WBA would obviously help, but they are currently 14/1 at SkyBet to make the playoffs (the only place currently offering that market whilst they update), so it's pretty unlikely that they will make the top 6.

Christ knows what's happened to Darlo. Another defeat tonight so that's only 0W 4D 4L in their last 8, or stretching further back, 1W 7D 7L in their last 15 games - 10 points from 15 is abysmal for pretty much a third of the season. They've got top of the table King's Lynn on Saturday who have won 5 in a row, so hard to see them winning that, and they've gone from potential title challenge to very likely missing out on a 6 team playoff in a couple of months. I know very little about the set up / expectations / circumstances etc. but you'd think their manager Alun Armstrong would have to be under pressure if they didn't get top 7?

Yeah, massive win. A nice unbeaten run going as well. Leamington are away to title chasing (and only automatic promotion) Fylde, and Farsley host Gloucester who occupy the final playoff spot, so hopefully they are still out of the relegation zone by the end of that round of games, and then home to Hereford the week after who are lower midtable, but safe.

I was hoping Millwall would have got an equaliser so that they were two games ahead of Sunderland (at the moment if Sunderland win and they lose, S'land would go ahead of them on GD), but they lost at home to Birmingham. That said, it gives teams like Norwich, Blackburn Coventry etc. the chance to pip them (Millwall) which might make for some more interesting playoff matches, as Millwall are pretty underwhelming. Not a good result for Sunderland, but you never know, that point might be the difference at the end of 46 games, and they are unbeaten in 6. Massive match for them against WBA on Sky Sunday, just before our match.

Shit, 2-2

YAAAAANITED!!! (Carlisle)

I get just over £1,500 if they come up from a few scattered low money bets totalling around £15. I put £2 on them to 'win the playoffs' at SkyBet just before they beat Cardiff at 250/1 (wish I put more on) and have a few other similar bets, but I'd still rather they didn't come up

Quite tempted to go to Consett vs Lincoln United on Saturday. Never been to the ground, but it's only like 35 mins away, and a very easy place to get to down the A68. Consett are 14th, Lincoln 2 points behind in 17th (and in a relegation playoff spot). If Lincoln did win then they would go above Consett, and if Bridlington and Grantham both got points in their final matches, Consett would then drop into the playoffs (can't fully rule out Carlton from the equation either as they have a game in hand), but a fairly big game, and a point would 99.9999% seal safety for Consett (baring a crazy 15 goal swing from Carlton in their two remaining matches). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–23_Northern_Premier_League#Division_One_East Shildon will be hoping Carlton don't get more than 2 points from their final 2 matches or they are definitely down, but it's not looking too great for them anyway.

Yeah, it's fascinating. Crystal Palace under Dowie are always cited an an example of a team going on a great run, just sneaking in, but having the momentum heading into the playoffs, but on the other hand, teams can and will approach the final regular league games differently. Huddersfield pushed us and Brighton for large parts during the 2016/17 season and I'd say they were clearly the 3rd best team in the league that year, but they ended up finishing 5th. They lost a few games in March and April to allow us and Brighton to pull away, and then they only took 4 points from their last 5 games, but they were in a position to kind of do what they wanted in those games - they weren't getting top 2 at that stage, but they also weren't finishing below 6th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016–17_Huddersfield_Town_A.F.C._season#Matches https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39676171 The above BBC link is their penultimate match of the season and Birmingham went down to 10 men after 20 mins, but scored twice after that and won 2-0 with Huddersfield using their squad how they saw fit. Huddersfield, who made 10 changes after being assured a play-off place with Tuesday's 1-0 win at Wolves, drop two places to fifth ahead of next Sunday's final home game against ex-Terriers boss Neil Warnock's Cardiff. I think if Sunderland did get into the playoffs then they would clearly go into them in form, with momentum, and they would make their home match a big event / spectacle, so I'd think they'd have as good as chance as any to come through them, but then the likes of Luton and Boro could use their squad in the final couple of games, like Huddersfield, and be more rested for them, so it's very hard to call, and like the old cliche, pretty much a lottery. Notts County might in the National League (and they'd be an exception), but very few sides will go into the playoff semi finals and be odds on to get promoted.

It's only one match, but the Villa result has clearly put doubts in a few peoples minds. You then start to think what if Brentford scored another in that first half, what if West Ham scored after 2 mins instead of hitting the post, or if they didn't stupidly concede 25 seconds into the second half when they were looking like they may have gone on to get at least a point at half time, you then start to think Dan Burn is looking more and more vulnerable every match, Pope a bit more shaky, Botman making more mistakes, and then you start to doubt some of the pre takeover guys being good enough, despite collectively being excellent for 15 or so months. Next couple of games are massive. We are circa even money faves to beat Spurs at home, who aren't great travellers, have injuries, and are not in a great place generally, we'll be similar odds against Everton as well who have just lost 1-3 at home to a Fulham side who everyone thought would be 'on the beach' and season just fizzle out. We should be looking for 4 to 6 points in those games (which would be very good assuming we also beat Soton), but at the same time, both could potentially be tricky - Kane could give our defenders nightmares, and they could get in behind us early like what Lpool did so successfully at SJP and what Spurs didn't do successfully at their ground. Everton will make it a hostile atmosphere with it being an evening kick off and the Gordon factor, and if we were to only get 0/1/2 points in those games, then the gap / odds will almost certainly shorten. Contradicting the above paragraph , but I guess we can only just take it one game at a time and try not to be too concerned with other teams results, starting on Sunday, where we have a good chance to almost certainly put the final nail in Spurs' coffin, and it will be great to finally get back to SJP after making it through 3 potentially awkward away matches in a row.

I think that was more a reply to my reply to you, ha.

I had this mindset, and would have been absolutely delighted with 6th and European football, and just happy to back in the upper echelons of the league again, but I think after the West Ham result, or certainly Brentford, seeing where we were (or are) in the table, hearing more and more noise about the Champions League, and it becoming much more of a reality, it would be a bit disappointing if we were to miss out, but then again, we clearly are a team on the up, we will be getting stronger ever year, and will be expecting (even if not achieving) to be competing with the best sides for years to come, and not like a West Ham or Wolves or someone who could have one great season, just miss out on top 4/5 and then be equally as likely to finish 12th or 13th the following season.

Yeah, I've been thinking similar. Start of the season we'd have probably been expected to finish 7th to 9th (competing with West Ham, Leicester, and possibly Brighton) - bookies had us as 7th faves for most things (league, top 4, top 6, best of the rest etc.), but then there probably would have been a lot of covering their backs / anticipated money to shorten those odds. Arsenal were 5th / 6th faves along with Spurs, so both have done brilliantly to be where we are, but it also feels like both are now more relying on games running out / maintaining position than forcefully going out to achieve the incredible. Arsenal could shithouse a draw at the Emirates and then just about do enough, likewise we could win 3 or 4 and draw another 1 or 2 of our last 8 and just get over the line, but I think if there were another 6 games remaining then Man City and Liverpool (possibly Brighton as well) would probably be many peoples faves to surpass the respective 'overachieving' clubs, certainly more so in Man City's case, given they are already the current 4/9 faves for the title and it also 'being in there hands' (as well as Arsenal's of course).

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish As others have mentioned on other threads, Spurs are now behind Brighton and Liverpool in the top 4 odds. Liverpool as short as 4/1 at BetVictor. We're still in a great position, but a couple of dropped points here and there and it can change quickly. If we do beat Spurs then that should really eliminate them from the race completely.

Not good for the old goal difference mind. If Liverpool are to match our points haul in the coming weeks then they'll almost certainly go ahead of us now after the 8 goal swing this weekend.

New 100 post topic on him (and another) on their main forum. https://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/200152-kuol-and-oda/

The worst thing about this is the more secure they are in the top 3/4 and the more competitions they are fighting in, they'll probably be in more of a position to ease off in some of the fixtures we'd actually like them to get something from (Spurs, Brighton etc.)

It's fascinating how one scenario could potentially change another. A few weeks ago, you'd think the title race would 100% go to the final day, if not, Arsenal might wrap it up with a game to go, but now, after a couple of draws, City winning for fun, and looking at those next games, the league could just about be wrapped up with 2 games to go (the other way), especially if City had their penultimate match before Arsenal, and if that was the case, that City Ground match would then look far less daunting for Forest than what it would just 8 days ago. Mind, Forest could well be down themselves by that game, so it could be a dead rubber

I think that's the strongest position Man Utd were in that season prior to a loss at Sheff Wed the next day. 11 clear, but Arsenal had 2 games in hand. https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/06-march-1998/ Man Utd did have a 12 point lead on Arsenal (3rd at the time) that season, which is often referenced, but Arsenal did have 3 games in hand. https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/premier-league/01-march-1998/