t00nt00n313

It's why we're gonna need to root for arsenal to beat Liverpool this weekend but I doubt they will. Liverpool are at home, and won't want to lose two in a row (especially if this is against arsenal) so they will actually try

It's not completely out of question to think that we couldnt draw arsenal and beat everton if we draw to Chelsea this weekend, which assuming villa don't win all their remaining games, could be enough assuming that final game between forest and Chelsea doesn't end in a draw. Still much more difficult so I agree we really need to beat Chelsea this weekend

I doubt we can afford to fill all those roles at least without selling isak. We're gonna have to decide which positions be we can afford to leave as is for at least another year. Pope and dubravka aren't great keepers but they are decent enough to get by so think we should hold onto them for now. I think defense and right wing are the areas we need to strengthen the most, particularly as we don't have enough cover in these areas.

Kinda feels like we've gone from a lot of people foolishly acting like this will be an easy game because Chelsea are poor, to a lot of people dooming and acting like we don't have a chance real quickly.

Think people are exaggerating how much of an effect the kick off time will have like.

Think if we draw to Chelsea this weekend it's not completely over. But we'd need to get 4 points from arsenal away and everton at home, so most likely draw to arsenal away which will be difficult then beat everton at home, could be doable if we just go hard on defense maybe, especially if they are being careful not to injure anyone for the CL matches. Could really do with arsenal beating l pool this weekend and securing CL football before playing us, but it's at anfield and I reckon this is one of the few games l pool will take seriously. Wed also need villa to not win all of their 3 remaining games in this scenario.

I think if we draw to Chelsea, it could be smart to go full defensive (which we never normally do) against Arsenal so as to just not get our goal difference down too much, then look to thrash Everton. It could genuinely come down to goal difference between us and Chelsea if we draw to them this weekend. Cept to be honest I reckon we are much better to just doing what we do best and just having a go at it.

The draw scenario gets weird as it comes down to our gd vs Chelsea. If we're assuming Chelsea get a draw, a win and a loss in this, and we get the same and we're currently on the same gd it comes down to how many goals we beat them by, how many goals we lose to arsenal by, and how many goals Chelsea beat man u by. Admittedly I can see that going more Chelsea's way than us. Chelsea could probably thrash man u, and we are capable of getting thrashed by arsenal.

I think if villa are gonna drop points from their next 3 it'll be to bournemouth away. Still man u and spurs are also capable of getting lucky and just not losing every now and then too. We're defo capable of getting a point from either arsenal away or everton at home. I think the most difficult will be beating chelsea though, which is why this Sunday is just so damn important

We beat Chelsea and get a draw from our remaining 2 we are on 67. If villa don't win all of their remaining 3 they are also on 67 but have way worse gd than us so that would be them out. If Chelsea lose to us in this scenario, then beat man u they'd be on 66 going into their last game with forest. Then if forest win their next two they would also be on 66 going into their last game with Chelsea. So three scenarios here: Chelsea win, they get cl, forest are on 66 and we are on 67 so we go through with them over forest Forest win, they get cl, Chelsea are on 66 and we are on 67, so we go through over Chelsea Forest and Chelsea draw: forest, Chelsea and us end on 67 points. But our gd and Chelsea's is much better than forests so we'd probably go through over them (and when I say probably I mean almost definitely as forest are never turning that gd around in this scenario). So yeah tl;Dr version, if we beat Chelsea and Villa draw or lose to bournemouth (or just don't win all their remaining games), then we'd only need one additional points from arsenal or everton to secure cl.

Another interesting fact, it we beat Chelsea and Villa get a draw to bournemouth away this weekend, that would mean we just need 1 more point from our last two games to secure cl. I don't think we will win mind but still here's hoping.

What could be an interesting scenario now. If villa don't win all their remaining games (so they draw one and win 2), and we draw to Chelsea but win against arsenal or everton (latter more likely), Chelsea beat man u, forest beat west ham and Leicester. We could get cl with 67 points assuming the forest vs Chelsea match doesn't end in a draw, so as long as someone gets beat (with the loser not getting CL). If they got a draw in this scenario they'd both finish above us. Would be an interesting match, would they both just play for a draw in that scenario knowing if they don't attack they risk the other getting a goal and knocking them out, could get all game theory.

Chelsea are picking up good form and we're struggling to win against teams that aren't in the bottom half. That said if we do manage to get a win I could see that giving us the confidence to do well in our final two games.

I think if we finish on 69 by beating Chelsea then it's almost impossible for both of forest and Chelsea to also finish above us because they both play each other in the last game. I.e. if we beat Chelsea the best they can get is 6 points from the remaining 2 games which would put them at 69 and due to gd they would probs be ahead of us, however in this scenario forest would have lost their last game, so even if they won their other 3 remaining games the best they could finish is 69 which would be level with us but it's really unlikely they would exceed our gd in this scenario (they would have to close a gd of 9, from 4 games of which one of them is a loss to Chelsea in this scenario, and we will have won 2 out of 3 which is extremely unlikely). Alternatively, if we beat Chelsea and forest win that final game then the highest Chelsea can finish on is 66. So basically 69 points assuming we beat Chelsea is practically guaranteed CL more or less, so we need to beat chelsea at home then either arsenal away or everton at home. Personally I think we'll struggle against Chelsea next week and get a draw but I hope I'm wrong.

What is it with us against Brighton, they're not even good.

It's just occured to me that if we win all our remaining games (unlikely but not completely unplausible) we would very likely finish the league in second. Can always dream anyway

Forest losing to brentford is massive I reckon, I could see them getting maybe 7 points from their remaining games (draw to palace away, lose to Chelsea, win the other two) which puts them on 67 but their gd is pretty bad. Especially with forest playing Chelsea it means we now have more potentially paths to 5th (I'll be honest before I had ruled out first missing out completely). I'm staring to think 67 points may be enough, so like a draw to Brighton and Chelsea, then a win against Everton for example. That does still ride on villa not winning every one of their remaining games mind.

Id be quite happy to try 5 defenders at the back for either Chelsea or Brighton but I don't see howe doing it.

I really doubt howe will put Miley in as the first choice. Most likely he plays willock with Miley coming in as a sub at around 70 mins or so.

I don't know how much we can spend, I imagine we will but I doubt we will have enough to cover every spot that people want them to cover/replace. Of all areas midfield is the area we are least in demand of reinforcement to be honest. Right winger and a couple of younger defenders are the main priority. After that maybe a new goalie or backup striker, then finally a new mid fielder.

Desperately need willock to get back to good form again.

Brighton is such a weird game. We have a mixed record against them at home and a horrendous record against them away. They aren't in great form ATM but then we also might be missing Jolinton. That said if we do manage to beat them and assuming Chelsea don't beat Liverpool (i.e. a draw or lose), I'll go from thinking we are slightly more likely not to get CL than we are ATM, to thinking we are slightly more likely to get cl. Under this scenario, we'd just need a draw to Chelsea and a win to everton (assuming we lose to arsenal) to secure cl. These next two games are are massive.

Whilst I agree that villa are on form and definitely could win all their games, all it takes is one bad day at the office or a slip up for a draw.

I was fully expecting a loss here and it's not the end of the world, but it was the way they lost it which has me worried. We have a tendency to go on a winning streak then be awful for 5 games or so and I really don't want that to be the case here. Really hope botman is back fit after Ipswich we could really do with him against Brighton and Chelsea.

Can't say it wasn't coming.