Let’s get all defensive about Newcastle (warning: contains stats)

[johnnypd]

Another tactical discussion on our midfield.

 

http://www.zonalmarking.net/2012/03/15/tiote-cabaye/

 

Cant view it though since I'm not in the uk. Anyone knows of any proxies that would work? Tried a bunch of free ones and they're all crap.

 

Further reinforces the reason why we need a link in mindfield  between Tiote and Cabaye and HBA, Ba and Cisse.........

 

Tiote and Cabaye are fantastic defensively at stopping teams from creating chances and getting at out back four but once we get the ball there isnt a link to start the attack.

 

Also why we need a back up to Tiote who understands when to press and when to sit like he does.

 

Yep. Tiote seems to do far more linking or sparking off attacks than Cabaye, which you wouldn't have expected at the start of the season. But he has terrific pace, a great ability to turn and beat a man and a willingness to play it forward - sometimes it causes him to lose the ball or make a mistake but it's an overwhelmingly positive attribute to have.

 

Saying that he is still a defensive midfielder so we need someone further up the pitch with the ability to get forward or carry the ball or make more creative passes. In all Tiote and Cabaye look like they'd be perfect as the deepest two in a midfield three, but not quite a rounded pairing in a 4-4-2.

[HawK]

Don't care what the stats say. Simo let's his man cross the ball far too often and he's horrendous in possession which makes us do more defending than is needed.

 

Tend to agree, stats without context are useless. He has such a high successful tackle percentage compared to the others because he's too afraid/not good enough to pull off the necessary/risky tackles in the first place, and just makes the easy ones on the half way line.

[GoranBadlund]

Stats 

[Kaizero]

http://www.eplindex.com/11637/defensive-newcastle-statistical-graphical-analysis.html

It’s not nice being the pessimist (or is it realist?) all of the time, but lets call a spade a spade – Arsenal deserved to win the game on Monday. If it had have been Newcastle who had 23 attempts compared to 4 and the game ended in a draw, the sticky stuff would have hit the fan!

 

Newcastle have never learnt their lesson over the years – Theo Walcott loves playing the Toon! He has tortured the black and whites in nigh on every game he has played in recent years, scoring goals, laying on goals and generally wreaking havoc on nearly every left back Newcastle have put out.

 

Having said all of that, Newcastle United did their damnedest against Arsenal, and if a point had have been the outcome, it would have been a very hard fought, if not slightly fortunate one. The effort and desire of the majority of the team cannot be questioned.

 

However, this article does not originate from the worry regarding lack of effort or passion. More concerning is the way Newcastle are shipping in goals of late, particularly away from home.

 

In their last 8 Premier League away games, the Mags have seeped in 20 goals. In their last 8 Premier League games overall, they’ve leaked in. That’s 2 goals per game, with the division’s average now 1.4 – Newcastle United’s overall 41 conceded goals is 2 over the average.

 

Furthermore, those 16 goals in the last 8 is 10 more than the number of goals conceded in the first 8 games of the season. A time when our defence could do no wrong; a time when, with 3 English players, the country was raving of our superb back line and touting those players as possible England candidates.

 

The dreaded injury to Steven Taylor did nothing to sustain Newcastle United’s brilliant defensive record – in the 14 games where the Geordie boy participated, only 13 goals were conceded. That’s a ratio of 0.93 goals conceded per game. In the 14 games since, Newcastle have let in 28 – that 2 goal per game ratio cropping in again.

 

NUFC_Stats took a glance into the numbers for Newcastle’s defensive players this season and interrogated the whereabouts of the goals conceded in the Premier League.

 

http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NUFC-DEFS-2.jpg

 

A lot of the above numbers reflect the playing time which some of the players have had, but the percentage values shine some interesting light on some defensive aspects.

 

It will probably come to the surprise of some, but Danny Simpson is the one that Newcastle probably need more than anyone at the moment. He has the best tackle involvement and tackle win rate out of all the Newcastle defenders.

 

Another surprising one, will be the ground duel success of James Perch. He has a better percentage for ground duels won than any defensive player at Newcastle this season. He also happens to be Newcastle’ best defender aerially, winning only 6 aerial duels less than the ever-present Simpson, but having the best percentage again.

 

http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NUFC-DEFS-1.jpg

 

A simply amazing statistic beams out from the above – the fact that Steven Taylor, despite missing half of the campaign thus far, has made more total and successful headed clearances than anyone at Newcastle United in the Premier League this season.

 

He’s also made the same amount of successful ‘total clearances’ as Argentinian centre back Fabricio Coloccini, but Danny Simpson is the ‘prevailer’ overall with 71. Mike Williamson has made just 15 fewer headed clearances than Colo from 15 less appearances.

 

Only the Taylor’s have made an error this season that has led to a shot, but R.Taylor and Simpson have made errors leading to goals from the opposition. Simpson can be let off for this though, having made 6 goal line clearances – more than any other player in the Premier League.

 

 

Where the goals have leaked

 

height=400http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NUFC-CONCEDED.jpg[/img]

Newcastle United conceded goals

 

Quite definitive from the graphic that the central zone between the penalty spot and the goal has been the problem area this season.  However, there aren’t many that have been slid in from the angle, which probably again highlights Tim Krul’s presence this season.

 

Also, the number of goals conceded from outside the 18 yard box is pleasing, especially when you consider that Newcastle United have allowed a higher percentage of shots from that area than any other Premier League side (72%) this season.

 

Further to that, Newcastle have conceded the least percentage of shots from the left hand side in the division (14%) and the 3rd least from the right (15%).

 

height=400http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/NUFC-OPP-ASSISTS.jpg[/img]

Newcastle United - Opposition assists

 

Although Newcastle seem to allow a lot of crosses this season, only 6 goals have been conceded from the ‘wide flank’ area. Moreover, to concede directly from just 1 corner in 28 games so far is also pretty satisfying – on initial reflection of the goals conceded, it was thought that those aerial values would have been a lot higher.

 

It is that central area that causes Newcastle problems; teams have been getting right through the ‘heart’ of Newcastle all season and the graphic shows that once in there, if the goal is not conceded straight by the ball holder, a teammate is usually thereabouts to help.

 

Finally, a quick look at the goals conceded numbers for the 14 games in which Steven Taylor played shows that the problematic central area is still evident, but the amount of assists occurring in there is completely nullified.

 

height=400http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/GOALS-SAYLOR-PLAYED.jpg[/img]

Newcastle United goals conceded and opposition assists in Steven Taylor's 14 games

 

Most fans would agree that the failure to purchase a good, experienced central defender in the January window was a big mistake. While Mike Williamson is a good contender aerially, he lacks mobility and guile on the ground and the quick, agile forwards get their way far too easily around him.

 

Steven Taylor has been a massive miss in the heart of Newcastle’s defence and the cover the team has at the moment is simply not good enough for a Premier League club challenging for European places.

 

While Danny Simpson and Davide Santon have their moments, the jury is still out on their Premier League ability, particularly Santon. Most fans seem to have made their minds up on Danny Simpson but you have to consider Man Utd’s lenient stance on his departure in the first place – would they have let a ‘European-class’ defender leave?

 

There isn’t anything anyone can do from now until the season’s end – here’s just hoping the season doesn’t flutter out into a mediocre placed finishing campaign, when so much hard work and endeavour has gone into getting the club where they are now.

 

Norwich next, and Newcastle owe them one, BIG TIME!

 

Interesting stuff IMO.

 

http://i25.photobucket.com/albums/c75/Kaizero/10f20067.gif

[skryp2nit3]

Probably get slammed for this but someone like Dyer would've been perfect for the role in a midfield 3 with Tiote and Cabaye.

[Sifu]

That's a nice, interesting read. The analysis is decent imo and it does point to one thing that we've known for a while now, we miss Steven Taylor.

 

But, as ever, stats don't count for anything if you don't have the actual performances to back it up. For example, Simpson making the most tackles doesn't really say anything about his actual overall defensive ability (still better than Raylor's though).

[Wullie]

Perch best in the air.

[The College Dropout]

Probably get slammed for this but someone like Dyer would've been perfect for the role in a midfield 3 with Tiote and Cabaye.

 

Why? I think the forum has grown to appreciate the good he did when he was with us. For a lot of people, that midfield he was in is the benchmark for all Newcastle teams since, atleast in an attacking sense.

 

The fact we have such poor full backs means Pardew is reluctant to go for a realish 4-3-3.

[Kanji]

A lot of those stats are very interesting, but you also need to put into context some of the  stats - for example Perch and Simpson's aerial stats may be higher based on their position and frequency of  aerial balls to the wings. You cant compare the statistics of a LB to a CB as they deal with different threats, its not apples to apple imo.

 

My example being sure, Simpson has a high number of headed clearances, but perhaps that number is inflated due to X amount of overhit crosses that beat the first and 2nd man.  Things like that...

 

The stats just further prove Steven Taylor's form this season, if anything to me.

[Keefaz]

Any stats that show Danny Simpson to be any good are clearly bullshit.

[Beren]

Wide areas are much more likely to have uncontested headers. Love the 'clearances' bit too, as if that's always a good thing.

 

Hope Pardew reads that piece so he realises what bollocks stats and stats alone can tell you.

[Guest ObiChrisKenobi]

Most of these indie stat blog people do the same thing. They write their story and use their stats to help tell it. Very rarely do they explain or offer critical analysis of their stats and ponderings.

[Guest Deadmau5]

According to the blog we rate Danny Simpson, while we are still undecided about Santon

 

http://www.tcmb.eu/uploads/yao-ming-meme2.jpg

[Disco]

I don't know why (perhaps I need a blog to tell me the obvious) but I find ZonalMarking pretty annoying.

 

Typical coach attitude. Nee interest in stats, just shout at the lads, tell them to get stuck in, and then wander off for your weekly meat and potato pie. English football is in the gutter

 

:lol:

 

I don't know, just can't understand how the guy has became such an 'expert' within the football media rotation for saying the obvious. I mean it is detailed, and at times its better than most professional experts, but I don't know.

Think I'm a bit annoyed that he's sort of spoiled it for others, as guardian removed their chalkboards due to people using them and gaining fame/profit. I'm not debating he's put the time and effort in, however.

 

Aww Chris is jelly.

[Guest Roy the Irish Magpie]

We should be playing Perchy ahead of willo then, accoring to the stats.

[Guest Brendan_Rice]

Brilliant post mate, crystal clear where our recent problems lie. Taylor is sorely missed, just wish we had decent cover for him, think this should be a priority in the next window.

 

I was just thinking how our defence has went to shit since his injury when I seen our goal difference compared to the teams around us in the table, we used to have the best defensive record in the league first quarter/third of the season. If we had decent cover we might be pushing for Champions league.