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The Numbers


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Cisse's conversion rate last season was 42% according to this analysis: http://www.eplindex.com/14273/best-premier-league-striker-opta-stats-analysis.html

 

It was bound to drop over the length of a full season, but it would be interesting to see just how much it's gone down.

 

Tbf he also was provided with more clear cut opportunities too, i know he scored some ridiculous goals too but in the main he scored goals because we got players close to him and created chances for him.

 

Do that again and the conversion rate would rise.

 

While we are in the discussion of stats... Vurnon Anita has produced 168 final third entry passes for NUFC in the PL in 1697 mins - Jonas has produced just 151 in 2807 mins :lol:

 

 

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http://i41.tinypic.com/2444n52.jpg

 

We shoot from inside 6 yards only one third as much as we did 2 years ago.

 

Even though we take more shots, we fashioned 61 shots within the 6 yard box then, compared to 21 now.

 

http://i43.tinypic.com/33c2q7d.jpg

 

http://i43.tinypic.com/xly23k.jpg

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/231b3n.jpg

*Premier League only

 

http://i42.tinypic.com/2v0coox.jpg

 

http://i40.tinypic.com/4ihngg.jpg

 

OP updated  :aww:

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  • 4 months later...

http://i44.tinypic.com/2dawvmb.jpg

 

This graph is the trend in shot accuracy (shots on target/total shots) at NUFC over the last 24 games based on a 5 game average.

 

So the average accuracy for this season (5 games) is marked by the Hull marker at the end, which is 23%.

 

This graph shows the change since the transfer window closed in January.

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

After 9 or 10 games of every season I like to look at who has had the easiest and hardest start.  It's a quarter of the way through, so it's enough time for the league to settle, but each team has only played half the other teams, so there's the opportunity to look at which teams have over-underperformed and place some bets based on those teams either dropping, or improving.  I've been preparing my spreadsheet already, so here's a sneak peak of how it stands :)

 

Aston Villa have had the hardest start bar none.  Categorically.  Played all of the top 5 and only one of the bottom 10.  The average league position of their opponents so far has been 6.5.

 

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/aston-villa/2013-2014

 

By comparison Arsenal, have had the easiest start.  They've only played one team in the top 10, their average opponent position is 13.9, so it should be no surprise they top the league at the moment.

 

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/arsenal/2013-2014

 

Similarly Southampton's impressive start has the stench of fortuitous scheduling about it too...

 

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/southampton/2013-2014

 

Here's the average position of opposition for every team in the league...

 

Aston Villa 6.5

Norwich 7.3

Cardiff 8.5

West Ham 9.0

Swansea 9.3

Man Utd 9.6

Sunderland 9.6

Crystal palace 9.7

Newcastle 10.4

Hull 10.5

Everton 10.6

West Brom 10.6

fulham 10.9

Stoke City 11.0

Man City 11.5

Chelsea 11.6

Tottenham 11.8

Liverpool 12.8

Southampton 13.1

Arsenal 13.9

 

So I reckon....

 

Norwich will be ok if they stick with Hughton, who's had a helluva start.

 

It's difficult to say Arsenal won't win the league, because they may very well replicate their form against the top teams when they play them.  But Chelsea/Man City look like they're performing against the whole league, where Arsenal haven't had a chance to show that as yet. 

 

Man U will improve.  Not that I think they'll do enough to win the league or owt, they'll peg back Spurs and Liverpool though.

 

Unfortunately there's not much value in any of that because, it's largely what we all thought anyway and the bookies agree.

 

Fulham and Stoke to be relegated at 3/1 and 4/1 respectively might be better bets.

 

Newcastle to stay in that meaty part of the curve, although the teams we'd expect to be mixing it with have had bastards compared to us.  Villa, West Ham, Swansea....all performing reasonably considering their harder starts than ours.

 

Before the moaning starts, I'm not pretending this is in any way scientific.  There is obviously a huge degree of circularity and I'm not factoring ANYTHING other than league position,  whether games were home or away or whatever would over complicate it for me.  I've had a little success with it in the past, so like to try it every year, that's not to say it's not proven to be completely balls other seasons too.

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http://eplindex.com/42161/newcastle-united-started.html

 

Some Interesting thoughts on how individuals have performed this year.

 

Debuchy in particular clearly pisses on Danny Simpson in terms of tackling and headed clearances. Still can't believe people argue the latter was better.

 

Debuchy's main problem is going walkabout and being too far up the pitch and not having the recovery pace t come back. Letting someone cross the ball when you're a foot behind them isn't a stat but it's a problem.

 

Those stats are based on absolute values. Debuchy has been picked out as a weak link and has had to do more defending than Simpson generally did. He's also more likely to dive in. Which is great when it goes right and he wins the ball but he also often gives away dangerous freekicks.

 

I was very impressed with Debuchy on Saturday. Looked a real defender. But in the 5 or so games i've seen this season he's been average to terrible on most occasions.

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http://eplindex.com/42161/newcastle-united-started.html

 

Some Interesting thoughts on how individuals have performed this year.

 

Debuchy in particular clearly pisses on Danny Simpson in terms of tackling and headed clearances. Still can't believe people argue the latter was better.

 

Debuchy's main problem is going walkabout and being too far up the pitch and not having the recovery pace t come back. Letting someone cross the ball when you're a foot behind them isn't a stat but it's a problem.

 

Those stats are based on absolute values. Debuchy has been picked out as a weak link and has had to do more defending than Simpson generally did. He's also more likely to dive in. Which is great when it goes right and he wins the ball but he also often gives away dangerous freekicks.

 

I was very impressed with Debuchy on Saturday. Looked a real defender. But in the 5 or so games i've seen this season he's been average to terrible on most occasions.

 

His attacking is a large part of why he was brought in surely?  Like Santon.  Both are keen to get forward and apply some additional pressure to opponents.  In a 433, that's a must.  The let down has been in terms of all the players understanding the system and their decision making to implement it, both the wing backs deciding to make those advances and the midfielders/forwards chasing back to help cover.

 

What was annoying on Saturday was Ben Arfa had been more central and Gouffran had worked his arse off providing cover for Debuchy, we switched that round moments before Liverpool scored their second, easily passing it around Debuchy down our right while Ben Arfa was a spectator.

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http://eplindex.com/42161/newcastle-united-started.html

 

Some Interesting thoughts on how individuals have performed this year.

 

Debuchy in particular clearly pisses on Danny Simpson in terms of tackling and headed clearances. Still can't believe people argue the latter was better.

 

Debuchy's main problem is going walkabout and being too far up the pitch and not having the recovery pace t come back. Letting someone cross the ball when you're a foot behind them isn't a stat but it's a problem.

 

Those stats are based on absolute values. Debuchy has been picked out as a weak link and has had to do more defending than Simpson generally did. He's also more likely to dive in. Which is great when it goes right and he wins the ball but he also often gives away dangerous freekicks.

 

I was very impressed with Debuchy on Saturday. Looked a real defender. But in the 5 or so games i've seen this season he's been average to terrible on most occasions.

 

His attacking is a large part of why he was brought in surely?  Like Santon.  Both are keen to get forward and apply some additional pressure to opponents.  In a 433, that's a must.  The let down has been in terms of all the players understanding the system and their decision making to implement it, both the wing backs deciding to make those advances and the midfielders/forwards chasing back to help cover.

 

What was annoying on Saturday was Ben Arfa had been more central and Gouffran had worked his arse off providing cover for Debuchy, we switched that round moments before Liverpool scored their second, easily passing it around Debuchy down our right while Ben Arfa was a spectator.

 

Simpson got forward a lot too. He was just crap when he received the ball. Santon's JOGS back into position and doesn't have being goal side as a priority. Debuchy sometimes looks too slow to get back. The midfielders could help more but the solidity of teh FB position is down to the FB. You don't see Ramires or whoever constantly covering for Ashley Cole. The way Santon plays at times would require someone else sitting at LB a lot of the time.

 

Tbh Gouffran needed a bit of a breather and I like the idea of rotating the 3. However, HBA simply has to do more.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Guest neesy111

Pardew's league record in the games following a Europa game

 

http://i42.tinypic.com/mj1vkg.jpg

 

:laugh:

 

That goes along with quite a few on here said, we did better when in the Europa League.

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