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The 2013/14 Betting Thread


Kaizero

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How do you post an image of an online bet slip? I'm a bit shit with technology sometimes.

 

Re: that bet, Wilson. If I were him, I'd have been gutted and thought the world was against me. Looking at it more coldly, it has to be said, Leverkusen themselves got a 92nd minute winner. :lol:

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Shakhtar draw/BTTS in Leverkusen-Sociedad came in at over 5/1 last night (if I could sort out this screenshot I'd happily post. :lol: )

 

Decent chunk of that is going on Standard Liege tonight. Might put some on -1 too.

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Think Valencia are overpriced at 13/8 - 3 wins in a row in La Liga to recover after a pretty shite start. Think they're good enough to overcome a "tricky away game". Might go on the DNB - 19/20 with Coral, really good price that.

 

Lyon I'm just staying well away from barring exceptional value. They may well win but they've screwed me on more than one occasion in the past. Unreliable team.

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What's the story on Standard Liege? Elfsborg just being awful?

 

I was hoping Towelie/some other kind Swede/Scando could provide some more info.

 

As far as I can see: Liege lost their first group game (very surprising home defeat). Won 9/9 in Belgium, often comprehensively too. See no reason they wouldn't play a strong side to try to recover after their first game. Elfsborg themselves have been in poor form as of late. Plus SL are, well, better than Elfsborg.

 

One thing to note is it's an artificial pitch. Not that I think it'll make a massive difference.

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Btw, I feel I should explain:

 

You may or may not have noticed I've posted a lot in this thread recently. Couple of weeks ago I basically sat down and had a look at my past bets from the past couple of months. I had some good wins, had plenty of bad losses. The common denominator though was I wasn't thinking about my bets that much, and more importantly, I wasn't placing enough emphasis on the odds.

 

So, I've been looking a lot more closely at the odds and they're dictating what I'm betting on. If it's good value, then it's usually worth a bet. Instead of willy-nilly going "well, I quite fancy that", I'm looking pretty in-depth at the information. It's all there to look at, make use of it. And match that up with the odds on offer - do they reflect the likelihood of each possibility? If not, there's likely to be some value, and take advantage of it accordingly.

 

Not to say I've wiped out the urge to have the odd daft bet - but if you want to be successful at this betting malarky then you need to take emotion out of it as much as possible. Got a long, long way to go before thinking I'm actually good at this but I don't think it's any coincidence that the past couple of weeks have been, arguably, my most successful gambling period to date. No spectacular wins, but fairly regular wins and a very healthy cumulative profit, and more importantly I'm getting value from the odds on offer (to which end it always helps to have a number of online accounts to exploit this).

 

I'm in no way suddenly any sort of expert on any particular team, league, or whatever. And you'll always have freak results, poor decisions, or sometmes intangible factors where one team just is up for it loads more than the other. That's always going to happen. But if you consistently take good prices for various events, long-term you will win.

 

Tbh I could ramble for ages about it - I find the whole lot of it very interesting, especially how psychological it all is (why do you think places do "BTTS offers"? You naturally want events to happen in a game, as you, as a natural state of mind, don't want your bet to be potentially over at one sudden point, you always want to have a chance - they're just exploiting your brain's default setting.)

 

I realise this is all setting up a decisive Liege defeat tonight. :lol:

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And yes, I realise this Bale bet has started in shambles, mind I said the only reason he wouldn't reach the target was due to injury.

 

If he could stop being injured constantly and fire a few in after the international break, I'll still be very confident. Long season.

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Need to click on "all matches" mate.

 

If anyone suspended betting due to my actions, I'd be so proud.

 

Just just realised my error, was actaully clicking on 'show all' on the main page but it was just a list of all the top bets in Europa, Leige isn't one of them...yet  :shifty:

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And yes, I realise this Bale bet has started in shambles, mind I said the only reason he wouldn't reach the target was due to injury.

 

If he could stop being injured constantly and fire a few in after the international break, I'll still be very confident. Long season.

 

I'm not worried about that, that will still come in. Just unlikely it will be in by xmas now  :lol:

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Perhaps my proclamation of "Cheers Gareth, I'll be £500 richer before Santa even thinks about visiting" was, despite tongue-in-cheek, a tad overconfident.

 

Next target is before my birthday in February. Easy. Ish. :shifty:

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Something else which is intangible which I'm finding - go with your instinct. Did anyone see Santos @ 2/1 last night? At home to struggling Sao Paulo? Just plain weird odds. But did I go for that? No, I tried to be a clever dick and went for the draw. Won 3-0. Lesson learnt.

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