Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 As for that load of shit you spouted about wages tollemache. Brazilian league. Corinthians and Internacional had highest salaries in the league and finished 10th and 13th. Cruzeiro who won the league had 10th highest salary and Atletico PR who finished 3rd the second lowest salaries in the league. Goias finished 6th had the lowest. So bring that back to that statistical community you're part of. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You've confused specific examples with a statistical trend there. Yes there is deviation but the pattern is that the teams finish pretty much in order of financial strength / wage bill. Christ, this is basic stuff. You think I was saying that all leagues finish exactly in order of their wage bill every year? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 As for that load of s*** you spouted about wages tollemache. Brazilian league. Corinthians and Internacional had highest salaries in the league and finished 10th and 13th. Cruzeiro who won the league had 10th highest salary and Atletico PR who finished 3rd the second lowest salaries in the league. Goias finished 6th had the lowest. So bring that back to that statistical community you're part of. Sorry stats were wrong. Atletico 4th lowest. Cruzeiro 6th highest. Point still stands. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You've confused specific examples with a statistical trend there. Yes there is deviation but the pattern is that the teams finish pretty much in order of financial strength / wage bill. Christ, this is basic stuff. You think I was saying that all leagues finish exactly in order of their wage bill every year? Well you've worded differently than from the beginning. It's quite clear that richer clubs tend to have a larger chance of winning since they can buy from lower clubs, but in countries where I come from (Brazil and Sweden) that's not always the case with it being a selling-to-foreign-country-league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You have no point though. Your point is that because deviations and exceptions exist, there is no trend. So the only way you could be satisfied would be if every league finished EXACTLY in order of wage bill, which obviously does not happen because clubs have injury crises, overperform here and underperform there. Plot the average league positions of clubs over 10 years next to their respective wage bills however, and you will see two incredibly similar graphs. Very generally speaking, your wage bill determines your expected finish in the league. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chopey Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Half Brazil, Half Sweden.....................you must be gorgeous Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You've confused specific examples with a statistical trend there. Yes there is deviation but the pattern is that the teams finish pretty much in order of financial strength / wage bill. Christ, this is basic stuff. You think I was saying that all leagues finish exactly in order of their wage bill every year? Well you've worded differently than from the beginning. It's quite clear that richer clubs tend to have a larger chance of winning since they can buy from lower clubs, but in countries where I come from (Brazil and Sweden) that's not always the case with it being a selling-to-foreign-country-league. Once again, it's not always the case but it is generally the case. That is why there are big clubs and little clubs, that is why Southampton won't win the league next year and neither will we. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Half Brazil, Half Sweden.....................you must be gorgeous Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spudil Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Don't know why anyone wastes a single second of their existence arguing with this utter clip. The guy clearly just likes attention. Best not to encourage him. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Right. It's attention-seeking to point out that nobody will be unduly surprised if we don't finish in the top 7. Top trolling from Tollemache there. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
olliemort Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Surely Ashley can't be happy that most of our squads value is declining, hopefully he is currently thinking this and he might get rid of this prick before we lose the likes of Ben arfa Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You've confused specific examples with a statistical trend there. Yes there is deviation but the pattern is that the teams finish pretty much in order of financial strength / wage bill. Christ, this is basic stuff. You think I was saying that all leagues finish exactly in order of their wage bill every year? Well you've worded differently than from the beginning. It's quite clear that richer clubs tend to have a larger chance of winning since they can buy from lower clubs, but in countries where I come from (Brazil and Sweden) that's not always the case with it being a selling-to-foreign-country-league. Once again, it's not always the case but it is generally the case. That is why there are big clubs and little clubs, that is why Southampton won't win the league next year and neither will we. Once again, you bring the PL into the discussion while originally saying EVERY league. Fluminense won the league in Brazil in 2012 and were relegated in 2013. I get your point, but you've changed your wording as the discussion has progressed. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 http://soccermetrica.blogspot.com/2013/03/premier-league-wage-vs-position-table.html http://www.squawka.com/news/2013/07/09/value-index-part-1/2013070912877 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You've confused specific examples with a statistical trend there. Yes there is deviation but the pattern is that the teams finish pretty much in order of financial strength / wage bill. Christ, this is basic stuff. You think I was saying that all leagues finish exactly in order of their wage bill every year? Well you've worded differently than from the beginning. It's quite clear that richer clubs tend to have a larger chance of winning since they can buy from lower clubs, but in countries where I come from (Brazil and Sweden) that's not always the case with it being a selling-to-foreign-country-league. Once again, it's not always the case but it is generally the case. That is why there are big clubs and little clubs, that is why Southampton won't win the league next year and neither will we. Once again, you bring the PL into the discussion while originally saying EVERY league. Fluminense won the league in Brazil in 2012 and were relegated in 2013. I get your point, but you've changed your wording as the discussion has progressed. I haven't. This applies to all leagues in which you need money to get good players. It doesn't matter whether I'm using the PL as an example or the Swiss 2nd division. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Although I'm curious - how did they go from champs to relegation? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Although I'm curious - how did they go from champs to relegation? Football in Brazil isn't about buying players although we're moving towards that. But players lose their top players to european leagues and have to restart. So every season is a very different from the before as the champions might have lost 3 or 4 key players. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cajun Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Isn't the Brazilian league the one where you can finish 2nd then have one playoff game and get relegated or have I made that up? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 @SanToon: I'm not doing that. It's just a trend - a guide. One way of demonstrating that Newcastle are *roughly* the 7th, 8th or 9th strongest team in the Premier League. Another way of doing it is to use your eyes and brain, and look at the sides above us who are clearly stronger. Whichever way you want to do it, that's roughly our place in the league right now. The original point, way back in the day, was that the media are not going to suggest that Pardew has underperformed in his job if he finishes 8th or 9th. Because that is, in broad terms, where we are expected to finish. Nobody in here has yet argued against that by suggesting we should be expected to finish higher, because in order to do that you have to say it's reasonable to set us the target of finishing above Spurs, Liverpool or whoever, and it's not. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
LRD Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Isn't the Brazilian league the one where you can finish 2nd then have one playoff game and get relegated or have I made that up? Argentine league isn't it? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not sure what tollemache is saying wrong tbh. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flip Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not sure what tollemache is saying wrong tbh. He's worded differently as the discussion has gone on. (or that's how I've interpreted it at least). There's tons of factors involved in football, he was trying to make the point earlier that the wages is the most important factor and that usually you can determine a season at the beginning of the season by just looking at the wages which is an absolutely ridiculous statement. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wonder if QPR start panicking about their promotion chances, whether Harry comes back into Ashley's thinking. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tollemache Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I'm not sure what tollemache is saying wrong tbh. He's worded differently as the discussion has gone on. (or that's how I've interpreted it at least). There's tons of factors involved in football, he was trying to make the point earlier that the wages is the most important factor and that usually you can determine a season at the beginning of the season by just looking at the wages which is an absolutely ridiculous statement. They are the most important factor, and you can determine about 85% of the variation in league positions based on them, as I linked to above. That 85% figure might vary from league to league (in accordance with the financial disparity between the good and poor teams I bet) but the trend will remain. Looking at the wage bills is an excellent way of predicting roughly how a league will turn out. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
littlelunchbox Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 @SanToon: I'm not doing that. It's just a trend - a guide. One way of demonstrating that Newcastle are *roughly* the 7th, 8th or 9th strongest team in the Premier League. Another way of doing it is to use your eyes and brain, and look at the sides above us who are clearly stronger. Whichever way you want to do it, that's roughly our place in the league right now. The original point, way back in the day, was that the media are not going to suggest that Pardew has underperformed in his job if he finishes 8th or 9th. Because that is, in broad terms, where we are expected to finish. Nobody in here has yet argued against that by suggesting we should be expected to finish higher, because in order to do that you have to say it's reasonable to set us the target of finishing above Spurs, Liverpool or whoever, and it's not. the teams 1st-6th to 7th etc is a lot greater than ours, that's fine. The problem is there is no ambitions to close that gap, there is no attempt to even try to bridge that gap. There are only desires to stay and where we are. That's the problem, whether that's good enough for you that is your choice. For the rest of us we want more. And it's not really asking for a lot just to try. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
JH Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Probably already been posted: Pardew’s job at Newcastle not under threat by MILES STARFORTH ALAN Pardew is NOT under threat at Newcastle United – despite the club’s dip in form. Newcastle have lost their last three games without scoring a goal. And the club’s 4-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday night was United’s fifth successive home reverse. A report yesterday claimed manager Pardew would be dismissed if his team failed to beat Aston Villa at St James’s Park a week today. But the Gazette understands Pardew – who is under contract at Newcastle until 2020 – is not under threat, despite unrest among fans. United’s objective this season is a top-10 finish in the Premier League. The club is ninth in the table with 12 games left to play. http://www.shieldsgazette.com/sport/football/newcastle-united/pardew-s-job-at-newcastle-not-under-threat-1-6443294 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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