STM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 29 minutes ago, Mazzy said: I'm glad you're so certain. Let's see. We are in a mini league Newcastle Norwich Watford Burnley With the outside chance of an Everton, Leeds, Brentford or Palace being pulled in it towards the end of the season. We have BY FAR the best squad of them 4 and we are pretty much all in the same boat points wise. If you told me, that with 17 games to play, we couldn't better them teams by 3 points, then quite frankly we deserve to go down. I'm a massive fan of Howe and I'm 100% behind him, but let's be honest, he has the tools to do the job. If we don't stay up, he has failed. It's more than achievable, but we can't keep allowing winnable games (and winnable positions) to keep slipping by because of individual errors. It's now or never. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 40 points hasn't been required for years, in recent history the following points totals would have kept you up: 20/21: 29 19/20: 35 18/19: 35 17/18: 34 16/17: 35 It's definitely decreased as the disparity between the cash rich clubs and those left behind has grown. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Prophet said: 40 points hasn't been required for years, in recent history the following points totals would have kept you up: 20/21: 29 19/20: 35 18/19: 35 17/18: 34 16/17: 35 It's definitely decreased as the disparity between the cash rich clubs and those left behind has grown. I'm not sure on the calculation at this point but it'll deffinitely be a lot lower than 40 like. Pretty sure 40+ has only happened once or twice? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Last time it was close was when we were relegated with 37 points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Since the Brighton game, where Howe was in the stands. We have lost 4 games to Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester and Man City, only the Leicester game I felt was a major disappointment because they were in terrible form and we didn't turn up. In the other 7 games, including Man United, we are unbeaten, picking up points in all. In those 7, we won 2 and we led in 4 others (Brentford, Watford, Man United and Norwich). I know we can all mess with stats to see what we want to see but I think my point is that we ARE competitive and we need to stop feeling sorry for ourselves and believe that with the signings we have made we will, at the very least, turn half of our draws into wins. The Everton game will be no different. It will be close, but baring the ref fucking us over, I don't think we will lose this game. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 11 minutes ago, The Prophet said: 40 points hasn't been required for years, in recent history the following points totals would have kept you up: 20/21: 29 19/20: 35 18/19: 35 17/18: 34 16/17: 35 It's definitely decreased as the disparity between the cash rich clubs and those left behind has grown. ...because I'm fun at parties and that. The last time 40 points was required was 10/11. Both Blackpool and Birmingham were relegated with 39 points, Wolves survived on 40. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Far from us worrying about the changes they have made, with management and transfers etc. If I was an Everton fan () I would be absolutely fuming that Newcastle had shown more ambition by buying Trippier and Bruno. Fuck the scouse mackems, let's dick them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 16 minutes ago, STM said: We are in a mini league Newcastle Norwich Watford Burnley With the outside chance of an Everton, Leeds, Brentford or Palace being pulled in it towards the end of the season. We have BY FAR the best squad of them 4 and we are pretty much all in the same boat points wise. If you told me, that with 17 games to play, we couldn't better them teams by 3 points, then quite frankly we deserve to go down. I'm a massive fan of Howe and I'm 100% behind him, but let's be honest, he has the tools to do the job. If we don't stay up, he has failed. It's more than achievable, but we can't keep allowing winnable games (and winnable positions) to keep slipping by because of individual errors. It's now or never. Don't know if its an outside chance but should we win on Tuesday Evarton are 100% in it with us. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Just now, madras said: Don't know if its an outside chance but should we win on Tuesday Evarton are 100% in it with us. Yeah but I'd argue that their squad and new manager lift they are highly unlike not to put a few wins together. I think Brentford are ones to watch. They are in free fall and we have all seen how quickly losses can mount up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Quite a few Everton fans seem as though they'd be content with a draw here, keeping the gap at four points. It's understandable, especially given their poor away form this season. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Just now, STM said: Yeah but I'd argue that their squad and new manager lift they are highly unlike not to put a few wins together. I think Brentford are ones to watch. They are in free fall and we have all seen how quickly losses can mount up. You know the new manager lift isn't an actual thing and now I'm not sure about how strong their squad is. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
STM Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 minute ago, madras said: You know the new manager lift isn't an actual thing and now I'm not sure about how strong their squad is. I know statistically it isn't but Rafa wouldn't have got that result yesterday. They will be a better side for the next 4 months. Until Lampard starts actually implementing his ideas on them. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 What's the craic with Lampard like? In theory he seems to have a decent plan. Maybe it's just my bias towards possitive managers but an attacking 3-4-3 can be hard to deal with. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 The issue with Lampard's style at Chelsea was that they conceded far too many goals. Everton's defence is absolute pony and while the high press will offer some protection they'll still get picked off by the more tactically astute sides. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
madras Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, STM said: I know statistically it isn't but Rafa wouldn't have got that result yesterday. They will be a better side for the next 4 months. Until Lampard starts actually implementing his ideas on them. I'm not so sure, he was without DCL and Richarlison for a large chunk and I can see Brentford escaping due to their early season results when they were an unknown. Tuesday could well give us a better guide on both teams. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Hanshithispantz said: What's the craic with Lampard like? In theory he seems to have a decent plan. Maybe it's just my bias towards possitive managers but an attacking 3-4-3 can be hard to deal with. Going by his Derby and Chelsea sides, he'll usually go 4-2-3-1 with the occasional 4-3-3. He loves going with at least two attacking midfielders who'll press high and try to pin the opposition in. Both sides had suspect defensive records though and once the wheels fell off his teams tend to lose shape and he struggles to turn it around. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackyboy Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Maybe an average of a point a game from here on in would be enough to keep us up ? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
GWN Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Just now, jackyboy said: Maybe an average of a point a game from here on in would be enough to keep us up ? it’s a possibility, I keep going on that a draw here is not such a bad result , these will be very difficult to play . Every point will matter so don’t turn our noses up at it Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantail Breeze Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 3-1 win. Go 1-0 up, get pulled back to 1-1 and then canter to victory. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix711 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 1 hour ago, The Prophet said: 40 points hasn't been required for years, in recent history the following points totals would have kept you up: 20/21: 29 19/20: 35 18/19: 35 17/18: 34 16/17: 35 It's definitely decreased as the disparity between the cash rich clubs and those left behind has grown. Just a small correction but points to keep you up is what the 17th team gets rather than the 18th team + 1. I know what you're thinking, 18th team + 1 = 3 worse teams, but what you need to do when calculating is take one team out and put yourself in. If you do 18th + 1, then you will still be 18th as there are 17 teams higher. The 17th + 1 means you are replacing the 17tth team which is how you should calculate survival. For most seasons it only changes your total by 1 point, but for last season you would need 39+, not 29 to survive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanshithispantz Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 I think Prophet is right like. You're looking at what the 4th team needed to survive, not what you would need to survive if you were to replace the 3rd team. I mean you can do both to find out different things, but in this case we're assuming that we aren't one of the bottom sides so will be replacing a team from 17th and up. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gazzaschicken Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Prophet said: 40 points hasn't been required for years, in recent history the following points totals would have kept you up: 20/21: 29 19/20: 35 18/19: 35 17/18: 34 16/17: 35 It's definitely decreased as the disparity between the cash rich clubs and those left behind has grown. Yeah the tally has been lower past few seasons but I think the reason everyone says 40 is because only 1 team has been relegated with 40+ points in the history of the Premier league so if you hit 40 regardless you are safe. Correct me if I'm wrong was it palace with 42 way back when? Edit, just googled sheff utd went down on 42 and then Palace on 45 but that was 94 and 95 seasons then west ham went down on 42 in 03 seasons. Apologies I was just a sprog in 94 and had the luxury of growing up with the toon at the top of the table Edited February 6, 2022 by Gazzaschicken Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix711 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Hanshithispantz said: I think Prophet is right like. You're looking at what the 4th team needed to survive, not what you would need to survive if you were to replace the 3rd team. I mean you can do both to find out different things, but in this case we're assuming that we aren't one of the bottom sides so will be replacing a team from 17th and up. I agree which is what I said or at least was trying to say :P. Prophet's numbers take the 18th team, not the 17th team. So if you had 29 points last year, you would still be 18th because Burnley (17th) had 39 - Prophet said you needed 29 points to survive, I recon you need 39 or 40 i.e. 17th's points. Edited February 6, 2022 by Phoenix711 Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Prophet Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Phoenix711 said: I agree which is what I said or at least was trying to say :P. Prophet's numbers take the 18th team, not the 17th team. So if you had 29 points last year, you would still be 18th because Burnley (17th) had 39 - Prophet said you needed 29 points to survive, I recon you need 39 or 40 i.e. 17th's points. My numbers are based on 18ths total +1. So if you had 29 points last season you'd have finished 17th. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phoenix711 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 14 minutes ago, The Prophet said: My numbers are based on 18ths total +1. So if you had 29 points last season you'd have finished 17th. 18th + 1 point doesn't take you to 17th. 18th + 1 means 18th place + 1 point = you replace 18th place i.e. there are still 17 teams above you. So take last year, if you had 29 points (18th + 1) you would be 18th. You would need 39 points or more to survive. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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