Other games (2024/25)

[TheBrownBottle]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

Liverpool’s %s still look too low for me

[Sempiternal]

They had a cupcake run in, with players back, was always a possibility 

[Pata]

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

 

Something happening doesn't mean it was likely to happen. But yeah, I'm done with this conversation for now. 

To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it?  There's no universal likelihood 

[Disco]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

[Pata]

Just now, Kid Icarus said:

To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it?  There's no universal likelihood 

 

Flat earthers are certain earth is flat.

[AyeDubbleYoo]

9 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. 
 

All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. 
 

You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen  9 times out of 10. 

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system.

Einstein was right though 

[duo]

I think I could take losing CL football but not to Liverpool 

[Sempiternal]

1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said:

Einstein was right though 

[Pata]

13 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless.

 

 

 

 

Of course it swings when there are only few games left. Liverpool were about 60% favourites today, now the model can disregard those 4 times out of 10 when Liverpool dropped points.

[Pata]

1 minute ago, Sempiternal said:

 

[Sempiternal]

Pata, are you Nate Silver?

[Pata]

Just now, Sempiternal said:

Pata, are you Nate Silver?

 

I wish I was.

 

Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind.

[Kid Icarus]

1 minute ago, Pata said:

 

Flat earthers are certain earth is flat.

 

You're right, thinking that the team that has

won the Champions League, the league, accumulated 90+ points 3 times, going on huge winning runs and snatched a Champions League place in exactly this way 2 years ago would do it again was the same as thinking the earth is flat.

 

You're a genius

[Sempiternal]

Just now, Pata said:

 

I wish I was.

 

Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind.

 He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over 

[Kid Icarus]

7 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said:

Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. 
 

All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. 
 

You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen  9 times out of 10. 

The point is that model demonstrably doesn't apply to football

[Pata]

Just now, Sempiternal said:

 He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over 

 

No idea but I believe he made some decent money in the process in any case.

[Deuce]

46 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

The problem we have is that there is no one else to play in the middle 

Newcastle will be playing foh-foh-fookin-tyoo

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Just now, Kid Icarus said:

The point is that model demonstrably doesn't apply to football

I don’t understand but I don’t think we can resolve this. 

[ChrisJbarnes]

The "goal difference" scenario. Liverpool max points is 71. Assuming we get 1 win and 2 draws to equal 71, and worst case scenario win 1-0 in that game. The difference would still be 5. Meaning that Liverpool would have to beat Villa (lets say by 1) AND Southampton (lets say by 4) to beat us to it on goals scored. 

 

Looks a lot closer than a few weeks ago, although I would still say the above is possible but highly unllikely...

[AyeDubbleYoo]

Man Utd’s GD is only 10. 

[Geordie Ahmed]

I think Liverpool will smash Southampton and can easily see them beating Liverpool by 2 or 3 

 

If it's just the one win we get it needs to be a 4 or 5 job ideally 

[Pata]

8 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

 

You're right, thinking that the team that has

won the Champions League, the league, accumulated 90+ points 3 times, going on huge winning runs and snatched a Champions League place in exactly this way 2 years ago would do it again was the same as thinking the earth is flat.

 

You're a genius

 

I know I'm not the fool if the bookies gave you an opportunity to 15-20x your money on something that you deemed likely (let's say two times out three so 1.5x) and you didn't use the opportunity.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Pata

[ponsaelius]

I don't understand how anybody can be convinced that human made statistical models and betting odds for a sport as complex as football are perfectly represented by statistical principles. This isn't rolling a dice or flipping a coin 9 times. They are just numbers made up by humans to try and quantify something that has a whole multitude of difficult to quantify factors. It is ultimately just well educated and calculated guesswork. Leicester were 5000-1 to win the league, now you will never get any team for less than 1000-1 before a season begins. Why did that change? Why does one historical event change something so dramatically? Because at the end of the day it's just somebody's guesswork (and in the bookies case protecting their interests).

 

I would question this isn't a case of not understanding statistics, but actually not understanding football if you think statistical likelihood can be exactly applied. Or certainly if you think there is any singular truth that can't be reasonably contested or questioned by others.

 

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by ponsaelius