SUPERTOON Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Just now, KaKa said: I'm very sceptical, but you may be right. Be interesting to see where he ends up next, and how he performs. Fwiw, I don’t think we sign him, the lad from Leipzig is much more likely imo. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 (edited) Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless. Edited May 15, 2023 by Kid Icarus Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gawalls Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Pata said: Eh? They had won like every third game until that point but somehow a 9 game winning streak was likely? We went on a 9 game unbeaten run this season after the Man City game on 4/3 and before that we’d only won 6 games out of 24 - that’s only a win every 4 games. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TK-421 Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 These two scousers... every other word..."eeerm" Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRon Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 16 minutes ago, Pata said: Liverpool winning their final 9 in a row was like 5-10% chance at best, that's never likely. Yet quite a few of us said it could happen, purely because we've seen it before. They also have the power of the establishment behind them to help out when it gets a bit rocky. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 10 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Yes, for the reasons mentioned. Their easy run in, their returning players, them having done it before. I can understand you arguing against it then, as you did. Not sure why you would argue against it now. Something happening doesn't mean it was likely to happen. But yeah, I'm done with this conversation for now. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBottle Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless. Liverpool’s %s still look too low for me Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 They had a cupcake run in, with players back, was always a possibility Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Pata said: Something happening doesn't mean it was likely to happen. But yeah, I'm done with this conversation for now. To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it? There's no universal likelihood Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Pata said: I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Just now, Kid Icarus said: To the people who thought it was going to happen it obviously was fairly likely wasn't it? There's no universal likelihood Flat earthers are certain earth is flat. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
AyeDubbleYoo Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless. Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen 9 times out of 10. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Pata said: I fucking hate maths but I'm like Einstein here. I'm worrying about the UK school system. Einstein was right though Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
duo Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 I think I could take losing CL football but not to Liverpool Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Kid Icarus said: Einstein was right though Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 13 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said: Just to give another example of those probability tables being shite, Liverpool's chance of CL went up from 30% to 37% solely from beating that godawful Leicester side. Our 92% chance is down to 81% based on an away draw. A model with that much swing is worthless. Of course it swings when there are only few games left. Liverpool were about 60% favourites today, now the model can disregard those 4 times out of 10 when Liverpool dropped points. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Sempiternal said: Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Pata, are you Nate Silver? Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Just now, Sempiternal said: Pata, are you Nate Silver? I wish I was. Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Pata said: Flat earthers are certain earth is flat. You're right, thinking that the team that has won the Champions League, the league, accumulated 90+ points 3 times, going on huge winning runs and snatched a Champions League place in exactly this way 2 years ago would do it again was the same as thinking the earth is flat. You're a genius Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sempiternal Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Just now, Pata said: I wish I was. Just wondering how bookies can make billions every year yet they are fucking fools according to N-O's hivemind. He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kid Icarus Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, AyeDubbleYoo said: Not sure if that is so crazy. The teams are really close and there are only 3 games left to produce results. All the model can ever be expected to tell you is the probability at a given point. You can have a 90% favourite in poker lose if that one card comes out of the deck. But the point is it won’t happen 9 times out of 10. The point is that model demonstrably doesn't apply to football Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pata Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 Just now, Sempiternal said: He’s out of a job isn’t he? Didn’t they get sold/taken over No idea but I believe he made some decent money in the process in any case. Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deuce Posted May 15, 2023 Share Posted May 15, 2023 46 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said: The problem we have is that there is no one else to play in the middle Newcastle will be playing foh-foh-fookin-tyoo Link to post Share on other sites More sharing options...
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