7th-ometer

[Decky]

Getting to the stage now where I'd be raging if Chelsea finished above us so its all about the top 6 for me. Obviously there's a lot of excitement about the top 4 at the minute and I really hope we do it but I think in the long grass we'll fall short. We're really relying on Man Utd being a shitshow but they seem to have sorted themselves out getting results even if they don't look great doing it. I think Liverpool will kick on now too. 

[black_n_white]

2 hours ago, Decky said:

Getting to the stage now where I'd be raging if Chelsea finished above us so its all about the top 6 for me. Obviously there's a lot of excitement about the top 4 at the minute and I really hope we do it but I think in the long grass we'll fall short. We're really relying on Man Utd being a shitshow but they seem to have sorted themselves out getting results even if they don't look great doing it. I think Liverpool will kick on now too. 

I’d agree with this, anything less than 6th now would feel disappointing even though at the start of the season most of us would have been delighted with 7th. That said it’s not even half way through the season, a lot can change.

[LV]

2 hours ago, Coffee_Johnny said:

Here’s the end of December update. Tracking progress towards 56 points (seemed appropriately ambitious in June!) taking into account quality of opposition (on previous season’s position) and home/away fixture variation. 
8 points ahead of target, at turn of year. 

Nice graph! 

[Coffee_Johnny]

1 hour ago, LV said:

Nice graph! 

Nice numbers! 

[Guest]

60 points target.

 

We need at home 5 more wins & 2 more draws (17 points to go).

 

We need away from home 2 more wins & 2 more draws (8 points to go).

 

Points in brackets is what we're tracking for based on results pre-season. 'points required' is what it will take to reach 60 between now and the end of the season.

 

 

Nottingham Forest (H)- 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 60 points)

Brighton (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 61 points)

Manchester City (H) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Wolves (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 62 points)

Liverpool (A) - 0 points required - 0 points won (On track for 62 points)

Crystal Palace (H) - 3 points required - 1 point won (On track for 60 points)

Bournemouth (H) - 3 points required - 1 point won (On track for 58 points)

Fulham (A) - 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 58 points)

Brentford (H) - 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 58 points)

Manchester United (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 59 points)

Everton (H) - 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 59 points)

Spurs (A) - 0 points required - 3 points won (On track for 62 points)

Aston Villa (H) - 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 62 points)

Southampton (A) - 3 points required - 3 points won (On track for 62 points)

Chelsea (H) - 0 points required - 3 points won (On track for 65 points) 

Leicester (A) - 0 points required - 3 points won (On track for 68 points)

Leeds (H) - 3 points required - 1 point won (On track for 66 points)

Arsenal (A) - 0 points required - 1 point won (On track for 67 points)

Fulham (H) - 3 points required

Crystal Palace (A) - 1 point required

West Ham (H) - 1 point required (originally 3 point)

Bournemouth (A) - 3 points required

Liverpool (H) - 0 points required

Brighton (H) - 3 points required

Man City (A) - 0 points required

Wolves (H) - 3 points required

Nottingham Forest (A) - 3 points required

Manchester United (H) - 1 point required 

Brentford (A) - 0 points required (originally 1 point required)

Aston Villa (A) - 0 points required (originally 3)

Spurs (H) - 0 points required

Everton (A) - 0 points required (was 3 points)

Southampton (H) - 3 points required

Arsenal (H) - 0 points required

Leeds (A) - 1 point required (was 3 points)

Leicester (H) - 3 points required (was 1 point)

Chelsea (A) - 0 points required

West Ham (A) - 0 points required

[Guest]

To think a record of P20 W7 D4 L9 should see us qualify for Europe from the position we're in.

 

I just don't see a world where we have as bang average a finish to the season as that. I think we'll get nearer 70 now.

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by Optimistic Nut

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Optimistic Nut said:

To think a record of P20 W7 D4 L9 should see us qualify for Europe from the position we're in.

 

I just don't see a world where we have as bang average a finish to the season as that. I think we'll get nearer 70 now.

 

 

 

 

Would love to see us get close to 70 points. Real testament to Eddie and his merry gang. 
 

Don’t even care what position we end up finishing in, 66-70 points I’d be over the moon. 

[Kid Icarus]

Cracking run of results. On paper you're delighted with 5 points from:

Leicester (A)

Leeds (H)

Arsenal (A)

[Coffee_Johnny]

End of January update to ‘top-ten tracker’ created in June. Which charts where we would be most likely to pick-up points based on strength of opposition (last season’s finishing position) and home/away advantage. We’re 9pts ahead of target. I’ve assumed the re-arranged West Ham away will take place in March. 

 

Given the above has become irrelevant (hallelujah!) I’ve added the average points totals for 4th place in the PL (68 pts based on a 38 game season), the maximum total for 4th (79pts, The Arse 2013-14) and minimum (60pts, Liverpool 2003-4). We’re currently one point ahead of the average. 
 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Coffee_Johnny

[Guest]

In a position where 1 win in 3 should secure some sort of European qualification when we're averaging 1 in 2. 

[Guest]

Shows how confident we've been overall of this that the top 7 thread went untouched from January.

 

Turned out the 60 point goal used for it would have literally been bang on and down to goal difference with Spurs in the end.