The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Pata]

10 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

This Brighton result will probably push our daft FiveThirtyEight/Opta percentages up. Which is patently ridiculous because it's obvious Brighton were not getting top four. 

 

They only had 7% before this game. You split that 7% to us, MUFC and Liverpool and it's not a significant movement. 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Pata

[WilliamPS]

19 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

Might get lost in the Other Games thread but thought I'd check the last 2 seasons for top 6 v bottom 6 clubs in the last 8 games of a season to see how much the 'fighting for their lives' and 'no easy games at this stage of the season' cliché was true...

 

P33 W3 D4 L26 F21 A86

I think it was Danny Finkelstein who did an analysis of this and the ‘on the beach’ effect and got the same results- teams tend to lose against the teams above them as they just aren’t as good, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s the first, tenth or last game of the season

[STM]

Oh it's 100% bullshit, the term "on the beach". It's up there with "new manager bounce" and the idea that corners are really good goalscoring opportunities, when in reality, you hardly ever score from a corner.

[NUFCDoog]

This time last night I was very worried about the Leicester and Brighton home games, now after these results I'm back to fully confident we'll beat both of them comfortably 

 

I know there's been a lot of ridicule for myself and others for "bedwetting" but at the end of the day, none of us want us to lose, and the main reason the pessimism is there is because we finally care again and it's so hard to switch that mindset after all these years, we're actually decent now and tbh after 14 years it's hard fo accept that as weird as it sounds.

 

I'm a pessimist in daily life as a fault, so it does carry over into football, but never misinterpret that as being a doom monger that enjoys being like that, I want to believe and hopefully over the next few years the club will make us all believe.

 

Someone who said about that lyric from Cobain the other day "I miss the comfort in being sad" was bang on, this season has been amazing but for some people it's difficult to have such a 360 in terms of psyche; because it matters more now I fear it hurting a hell of a lot more because still expect heartbreak, but maybe it's not like that anymore.

 

I've gone on a bit here after a beer or two so apologies but hopefully my point comes across. Here's to the good times 

[Guest]

Probably a big indication of anything can happen on the day. Behind the lads until the very end of the season, two wins and a draw. Howay

[SUPERTOON]

8 minutes ago, NUFCDoog said:

This time last night I was very worried about the Leicester and Brighton home games, now after these results I'm back to fully confident we'll beat both of them comfortably 

 

I know there's been a lot of ridicule for myself and others for "bedwetting" but at the end of the day, none of us want us to lose, and the main reason the pessimism is there is because we finally care again and it's so hard to switch that mindset after all these years, we're actually decent now and tbh after 14 years it's hard fo accept that as weird as it sounds.

 

I'm a pessimist in daily life as a fault, so it does carry over into football, but never misinterpret that as being a doom monger that enjoys being like that, I want to believe and hopefully over the next few years the club will make us all believe.

 

Someone who said about that lyric from Cobain the other day "I miss the comfort in being sad" was bang on, this season has been amazing but for some people it's difficult to have such a 360 in terms of psyche; because it matters more now I fear it hurting a hell of a lot more because still expect heartbreak, but maybe it's not like that anymore.

 

I've gone on a bit here after a beer or two so apologies but hopefully my point comes across. Here's to the good times 

Main concern with the Brighton game is our style suits then down to the ground. They have the ability to do what Villa did to us.

[ponsaelius]

59 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

This Brighton result will probably push our daft FiveThirtyEight/Opta percentages up. Which is patently ridiculous because it's obvious Brighton were not getting top four. 

 

Up 2% to 92%. Load of utter twaddle if you ask me this stuff like 

[The Prophet]

Pretty much puts the threat of Brighton to bed.

 

A maximum of seven points it is. Hopefully less.

[Skeletor]

Did a lot to cancel out that 6-0 GD boost they had the other dayş

[Bally21]

We’ve won 8 of the last 10 games, and have usually bounced Back well following defeats....keep the faith lads.

[Pata]

1 hour ago, ponsaelius said:

 

Up 2% to 92%. Load of utter twaddle if you ask me this stuff like 

 

They don't do probabilities in UK schools? 

 

Seems pretty logical to me that our likelihood of top 4 is upped a bit when one team with a small chance gets eliminated? 

[ponsaelius]

It just has no basis in reality whatsoever IMO. Even betting odds are more accurate.

[Kid Icarus]

2 hours ago, ponsaelius said:

 

Up 2% to 92%. Load of utter twaddle if you ask me this stuff like 

It's insane. We're one defeat and one Liverpool win away from being level on points. The algorithm is tea leaves for stat worshippers.

[Pata]

Just now, ponsaelius said:

It just has no basis in reality whatsoever IMO. Even betting odds are more accurate.

 

Of course betting odds are more accurate and I'm sure they moved a bit too when Everton were scoring for fun today.

[timeEd32]

2 minutes ago, ponsaelius said:

It just has no basis in reality whatsoever IMO. Even betting odds are more accurate.

 

I'm not here to defend Nate Silver, but you mean the betting odds that are within a few percentage points of what 538 says?

[Kid Icarus]

46 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

They don't do probabilities in UK schools? 

 

Seems pretty logical to me that our likelihood of top 4 is upped a bit when one team with a small chance gets eliminated? 

You don't just indiscriminately share probabilities out between the other teams involved though. Form and history tells you that Liverpool are the main benefactors from this week, not teams that lost.

[Pata]

10 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

It's insane. We're one defeat and one Liverpool win away from being level on points. The algorithm is tea leaves for stat worshippers.

 

You have an opportunity to make money if you really believe it's so badly wrong. We're 1.13 (or 88.5%) right now on Betfair's exchange to make top 4. 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Pata

[Pata]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

You don't just indiscriminately share probabilities out between the other teams involved though. Form and history tells you that Liverpool are the main benefactors from this week, not teams that lost.

 

I'm sure our % was higher before any games were played this weekend. Doesn't mean Brighton losing wasn't good for everyone else in the hunt for top 4.  

 

 

Edited May 8, 2023 by Pata

[Boey_Jarton]

Always assumed the predictor sites were just implied betting odds. Or at least based on the same logic - i.e. stochastic simulations

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

It's insane. We're one defeat and one Liverpool win away from being level on points. The algorithm is tea leaves for stat worshippers.

 

You think the odds should be lower than that given we play 2 of the worst 4 teams in the league still and that would only leave another point to require? That's also based on Liverpool winning all 3 of theirs too. I think the percentages are about right. 

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

You have an opportunity to make money if really you believe it's so badly wrong. We're 1.13 (or 88.5%) right now on Betfair's exchange to make top 4. 

I'm saying it's a huge exaggeration, I'm not saying it won't happen.

[Kid Icarus]

3 minutes ago, Pata said:

 

I'm sure our % was higher before any games were played. Doesn't mean Brighton losing wasn't good for everyone else in the hunt for top 4.  

Ours has only gone down 3%, Man United's has gone down 10%.

[Pata]

2 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

I'm saying it's a huge exaggeration, I'm not saying it won't happen.

 

Huge exaggeration means it's an opportunity to make money regardless of the end result.  

[timeEd32]

6 minutes ago, Kid Icarus said:

You don't just indiscriminately share probabilities out between the other teams involved though. Form and history tells you that Liverpool are the main benefactors from this week, not teams that lost.

 

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. If we accept that Brighton were effectively eliminated today (or their odds were greatly reduced) then it benefits all of the teams in the race. And, in fact, it benefits Newcastle and Man United more because Brighton had a higher potential points number than Liverpool did. Newcastle and Man United now need less points than they did before today to finish in the top 4.

[Kid Icarus]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

You think the odds should be lower than that given we play 2 of the worst 4 teams in the league still and that would only leave another point to require? That's also based on Liverpool winning all 3 of theirs too. I think the percentages are about right. 

Yes, because I truly believe that football results especially at this time of year and especially involving teams fighting relegation are chaos. Year after year. We know this first hand, we've often been that team pulling a result out of nowhere.

 

terminally shit Everton have just beaten excellent all season Brighton 5-1 away, yet I'm supposed to take Leeds away and Leicester at home as bankers?