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The TopFourometer™ (2023/24)  

629 members have voted

  1. 1. How likely are we to finish top four this season? 0 = nee chance, 5 = can’t call it, 10 = nailed on marra



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That was an absolutely huge fixture for us this season. The belief the players will have after beating Arsenal makes me believe that we’re in with a shot of top four even in spite of half the team being on the operating table 

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1 minute ago, STM said:

I believe we are a top 4 side, I just haven't decided who isn't yet. :lol:

 

This is likely true and can be extended to top 5. Long way to go but there's a decent chance that whomever finishes 6th in that first Europa League spot will feel a bit hard done by. Will be even in more true if England fail to get the extra place.

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3 hours ago, alexf said:

All rides on suspensions, injuries etc. 

No Bruno next week, we didn't win a league game without him last year did we? 

 

We have been unlucky with injuries but most of them are mid to long term so it's not gonna turn around quickly, then you are just hoping we don't pick up anymore. But we are currently picking up a fresh injury each game at the moment. 

 

Likewise if we get bit more luck with injuries and Isak, Botman come back in and then Barnes, maybe a few signings in January, possibly out of europe and then suddenly we could go on a mad winning run like we did last year in the league. 

Him missing the game against Bournemouth is much better than missing the game after that against Chelsea. A very good timing to get suspended I would say. It might’ve been even intentional. 

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4 minutes ago, Solitude20 said:

Him missing the game against Bournemouth is much better than missing the game after that against Chelsea. A very good timing to get suspended I would say. It might’ve been even intentional. 

A booking.....yes. but not the way he went about it. Intentional would have been kicking the ball away/imaginary card waving, not something the could have been a red (Jorginho).

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51 minutes ago, gbandit said:

Imagine if Arsenal fell apart mentally after this result and it derailed them [emoji38]

 

I think if anyone will it'll be them. For the money they've spent they don't seem much better to last season or the season before, other than Rice. 

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19 minutes ago, Solitude20 said:

Him missing the game against Bournemouth is much better than missing the game after that against Chelsea. A very good timing to get suspended I would say. It might’ve been even intentional. 

Agreed. However I just meant, he was crucial to us winning games last year in the league. I think he even missed this fixture last year did he? and we drew it. 

 

So I was just saying as a generic example, something as simple as losing Bruno for a game or so can disrupt our momentum. 

 

I would like to think we have enough without Bruno to beat this current Bournemouth team. 

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Think it's actually really difficult to predict, other than (imo) Man City and Liverpool.

 

Arsenal could bottle it, but I doubt it. Spurs have yet to have an iffy patch or play a lot of difficult teams in a row. So while they look great now, a lot of my Spurs mates are worried that their depth is going to be their undoing. 

 

Man U aren't that far off, some-fucking-how, so you never really know, though again, doubt they'll do it. Chelsea are another that could quite conceivably stick a run together and without European distractions, may well have an outside chance. But they're shit as well. Saying that, could be a massive turning point for them tonight against Spurs. 

Which leaves us and Villa, really, as the next closest. I don't think Brighton will have what it takes, so I'm ruling them out.

January could impact a lot of this. Spurs for instance, could address their squad issues, and then be almost impossible to get out of the top 4.

Gun to my head, I think we finish 5th.

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Man City and Liverpool are the only certs. Arsenal 'should' be at least 3rd with what they've spent but if they're going to crumble like on Saturday they might drop. Spurs are similar to us last year I reckon. They could drop and level off to around 6th, but if they keep riding this crest when the tougher games come, they will be close to 4th. Man Utd are a fucking nightmare to work out. They've been shit and should be lower mid-table based on performances but are somehow in the mix. Villa could finish anywhere better 4th and 9th. Chelsea are another nightmare to second guess. You wouldn't be shocked if they went on a run like we've just had since Brighton even though it doesn't look like it's coming.

 

It's class for the league, though. Just a shame Man City are so much better than anyone else because title races could be exciting as fuck. 

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If Spurs had equivalent injuries to us: 

Van de Ven/ Romero = Botman

Son = Isak 

 

Not to mention our other absentees: Tonali, Murphy, Barnes etc. 

 

I don't think they would cope aswell as we have. So it all depends on them keeping their key men fit. But they could definitely replicate us last year with having less fixtures than everyone else. 

 

 

Edited by alexf

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8 minutes ago, alexf said:

If Spurs had equivalent injuries to us: 

Van de Ven/ Romero = Botman

Son = Isak 

 

Not to mention our other absentees: Tonali, Murphy, Barnes etc. 

 

I don't think they would cope aswell as we have. So it all depends on them keeping their key men fit. But they could definitely replicate us last year with having less fixtures than everyone else. 

 

 

 

 

They're likely going to play about 12 games fewer than us this season you'd think so injuries will fall in their favour you'd think. 

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16 minutes ago, alexf said:

If Spurs had equivalent injuries to us: 

Van de Ven/ Romero = Botman

Son = Isak 

 

Not to mention our other absentees: Tonali, Murphy, Barnes etc. 

 

I don't think they would cope aswell as we have. So it all depends on them keeping their key men fit. But they could definitely replicate us last year with having less fixtures than everyone else. 

 

 

 

 

Agreed, just losing Maddison or Son would seriously impact them. Though that's probably more like us losing Bruno or Trippier.

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Spurs have three of the top 6, a local derby and a tricky away game at Wolves in the next 5. If they come through that lot with 9 or more they'll finish top 4.

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On an equivolent fixture basis, we are actually 4 points better off thus far than last year, swapping Sheffield (a) + Burnley (h) for Southampton (a) + Leicester (h).

 

Looking at the next 8 matches, we secured 20 / 24 points last season, including wins vs Man Utd (h), Chelsea (h), Tottenham (a).

 

Not a ton of room for error for top 4. But top 5...

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On 30/10/2023 at 14:08, The Prophet said:

So some very quick fag packet maths, from the teams in and around us last year:

 

Man United -7

Us +3

Liverpool +3

Villa +2

Brighton -2

Spurs +11

 

Rolling table, I might try and put something less basic together if I get time...

 

Man United -7

Us +6

Liverpool +3

Villa +1

Brighton -4

Spurs +8

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14 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Rolling table, I might try and put something less basic together if I get time...

 

Man United -7

Us +6

Liverpool +3

Villa +1

Brighton -4

Spurs +8

Is this table based on the points difference after the same number of games last season? Or is it based on the comparison with the opposition faced?

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54 minutes ago, Geordie Ahmed said:

Is this table based on the points difference after the same number of games last season? Or is it based on the comparison with the opposition faced?

 

The latter. I know ours is correct, but I need to double check my count for others.

 

 

Edited by The Prophet

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