The Europeometer™ (2024/25)

[Yorkie]

I'm sad that we're not going to have more European nights and it's a missed opportunity for Howe and the squad to future acclimatise to the rigors of those campaigns.

 

Bruno's future doesn't hinge on Conference League participation imo so that's a moot point for me.

 

I don't really give a monkeys about the coefficient situation. I understand the need for us to increase it in order to gain more revenue, but I find the whole relationship between coefficients and financial reward utterly backward. I know that's contradictory when I want what's best for NUFC but there's an element of "if those are the rules of your game, I'd rather not play." I'm exaggerating a bit there but basically what I'm saying is I'm okay with us being an underdog. That's what leads to nights like PSG.

 

With Man Utd winning the cup, the best we were going to get this year was Conference League. I'm really fond of the competition but I'm not devastated that we're not in it. It's ridiculously winnable for any solid PL team and becomes even moreso next season with nobody dropping down from Europa. Looking at the teams likely to feature, I'm not even sure how great an achievement it would be for us to go and win it. Hopefully Chelsea do the Chelsea thing and half-arse it, avoiding what should be a procession to the trophy. 

[Erikse]

3 hours ago, leffe186 said:

 

I think not being in Europe helped us overall, but was a mixed bag to an extent. Our squad wasn’t deep enough to sustain both Europe and the League and Ange clearly still needs a couple of years to make the squad his own. That said, in the second half of the season we couldn’t get any kind of rhythm going  because we kept having weird long gaps between games where the odd European tie might have actually helped. 
 

Still, it did allow Ange a look at the squad without having to throw kids in (also a mixed bag). And it did avoid the stuff Villa had to face with everyone basically running on fumes at the end. I think it will benefit us in the long run with Ange having had more time with the players on the training pitch.

 

That’s why I think being out of Europe will actually be hugely beneficial for you this year in the League, as long as you don’t lose one of the big guns. You’ve already gone through that stuff and though Howe will clearly want to improve the squad they’ve already shown they can get CL in these circumstances.

 

So for CL - well almost nobody can expect it any more as the competition is even greater, but it’s clearly not ridiculous. Man City (presuming Pep stays) and Arsenal should expect it but that’s it. Chelsea may be in turmoil again, Liverpool will be in transition, we don’t know what Man U will be at all and all three have Europe. We’re clearly still rebuilding, and Villa will have a lot to contend with. I’m also a bit nervous about Palace this year, and outside the first two it feels like everyone will take points off everyone. I genuinely have you in 3rd.

 

If you look at peoples expectations before last season, many people had Chelsea in the top 4 due to no Europe. Some people had you in top 4 due to no Europe. I'm sure that if you read through the Chelsea forum from last summer, they were going on about how no Europe will help them massively, and that they will now become a real threat to the top teams. Kind of like what we are doing now.

 

When it comes to Villa, their squad didn't seem deep enough at all either, and they were having some issues with fatigue for brief periods of the season. However, they still got top 4 in the end, so it's doable. Ofcourse, chances are probably higher without Europe, but are they really that much higher without the Conference League?

[leffe186]

29 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

If you look at peoples expectations before last season, many people had Chelsea in the top 4 due to no Europe. Some people had you in top 4 due to no Europe. I'm sure that if you read through the Chelsea forum from last summer, they were going on about how no Europe will help them massively, and that they will now become a real threat to the top teams. Kind of like what we are doing now.

 

When it comes to Villa, their squad didn't seem deep enough at all either, and they were having some issues with fatigue for brief periods of the season. However, they still got top 4 in the end, so it's doable. Ofcourse, chances are probably higher without Europe, but are they really that much higher without the Conference League?

 Nobody had us in the top four. Remember why?

 

Just taking the BBC predictions, out of 27 sets of four Chelsea were in there three times. You guys were in there five times, Villa twice. Chelsea were the only team not in Europe even mentioned. They just picked the best teams for the most part.

 

If your point is that missing out on Europe isn’t a guarantee of good league performance then absolutely, but I can see where it might help (and I think I just did). If your point is that people overrate the potential then the actual predictions don’t seem to bear that out, although Copium might be a contributor in a given fan group. I don’t remember if Chelsea were optimistic or pessimistic about the season beforehand tbh.

 

 

[Erikse]

26 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 Nobody had us in the top four. Remember why?

 

Just taking the BBC predictions, out of 27 sets of four Chelsea were in there three times. You guys were in there five times, Villa twice. Chelsea were the only team not in Europe even mentioned. They just picked the best teams for the most part.

 

If your point is that missing out on Europe isn’t a guarantee of good league performance then absolutely, but I can see where it might help (and I think I just did). If your point is that people overrate the potential then the actual predictions don’t seem to bear that out, although Copium might be a contributor in a given fan group. I don’t remember if Chelsea were optimistic or pessimistic about the season beforehand tbh.

 

 

 

Yeah, I won't get all that hyped up about our league performances next season before it even starts, just because of this. 3 out of 27 is way less than I thought tbh, but I don't think many from BBC would put us in the top 4 next season either.

 

 

Edited May 26 by Erikse

[leffe186]

 

4 minutes ago, Erikse said:

 

Yeah, I won't get all that hyped up about our league performances next season before it even starts, just because of this. 3 out of 27 is way less than I thought tbh, but I don't think many from BBC would put us in the top 4 next season either.

Next season’s BBC predictions will be Man City, Arsenal and then a dartboard depending upon people’s biases and all the management situations I presume. Put a gun to my head right now and I’d say Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and then see who’s managing who. Maybe Liverpool fourth.

 

You’re going to have to tell me who had us in the Top Four though. I’m genuinely curious - didn’t think anyone did.

[madras]

Just now, leffe186 said:

 

Next season’s BBC predictions will be Man City, Arsenal and then a dartboard depending upon people’s biases and all the management situations I presume. Put a gun to my head right now and I’d say Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and then see who’s managing who. Maybe Liverpool fourth.

 

You’re going to have to tell me who had us in the Top Four though. I’m genuinely curious - didn’t think anyone did.

Apart from Man City and Arsenal it's pointless making predictions right now. Far too much can/will happen. I'll go as far as to say I can name 7 or 8 clubs who won't be in a relegation battle 

[Erikse]

17 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

Next season’s BBC predictions will be Man City, Arsenal and then a dartboard depending upon people’s biases and all the management situations I presume. Put a gun to my head right now and I’d say Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and then see who’s managing who. Maybe Liverpool fourth.

 

You’re going to have to tell me who had us in the Top Four though. I’m genuinely curious - didn’t think anyone did.

 

I can't find the video predictions that I watched, but maybe I remembered it wrong. Thinking about it, I probably did, because Spurs were not exactly getting hyped up before the season due to how they ended last season.

 

 

Edited May 26 by Erikse

[Kanj]

I think a fully fit team where we build and keep our top 3 players will see us absolutely steam roll some sides with our energy and intensity and we’ll be a meaner, smarter and fine turned version of the team that achieved CL. 
 

Onward and bloody fucking upward. 

[RobsonsWonderland]

Biggest complaint from Howe was that we never trained the first half of the season as we were back to back games.. well now is the time to see if that stacks up.

 

I also wouldn't mind any of the players staying as long as they know that purples are coming in and they either fight for a place or leave if they are not up for the challenge.

[SteV]

47 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

Next season’s BBC predictions will be Man City, Arsenal and then a dartboard depending upon people’s biases and all the management situations I presume. Put a gun to my head right now and I’d say Man City, Arsenal, Newcastle and then see who’s managing who. Maybe Liverpool fourth.

 

You’re going to have to tell me who had us in the Top Four though. I’m genuinely curious - didn’t think anyone did.

Garth Crooks probably had you winning the league by 15 points because he didn’t like the colour of Pep’s socks.

[Beth]

It's become a top 8 now instead of a top 6. The same teams but maybe a different order to this season from 2nd-8th. City will win it again obviously.

[Dancing Brave]

34 minutes ago, Beth said:

It's become a top 8 now instead of a top 6. The same teams but maybe a different order to this season from 2nd-8th. City will win it again obviously.

Ok Beth the mackem, however..

It's still better than finishing 16th in the Championship. 

[The College Dropout]

Not being in Europe is a net positive for league performance. Assuming you can spend the same and attract the same level of player. Which we probably won’t. But if we can keep the band together we’ll do well. 

 

 

Edited May 26 by The College Dropout

[Dokko]

13 hours ago, KetsbaiaIsBald said:

I’m still clinging onto the hope that Chelsea turn the conference down to avoid European sanctions?

 

Could be banned from entering due to financial irrigularitues. Interesting month coming up, if the PL don't sign off the hot deal, they are fucked.

[timeEd32]

16 hours ago, leffe186 said:

 

I think not being in Europe helped us overall, but was a mixed bag to an extent. Our squad wasn’t deep enough to sustain both Europe and the League and Ange clearly still needs a couple of years to make the squad his own. That said, in the second half of the season we couldn’t get any kind of rhythm going  because we kept having weird long gaps between games where the odd European tie might have actually helped. 
 

Still, it did allow Ange a look at the squad without having to throw kids in (also a mixed bag). And it did avoid the stuff Villa had to face with everyone basically running on fumes at the end. I think it will benefit us in the long run with Ange having had more time with the players on the training pitch.

 

That’s why I think being out of Europe will actually be hugely beneficial for you this year in the League, as long as you don’t lose one of the big guns. You’ve already gone through that stuff and though Howe will clearly want to improve the squad they’ve already shown they can get CL in these circumstances.

 

So for CL - well almost nobody can expect it any more as the competition is even greater, but it’s clearly not ridiculous. Man City (presuming Pep stays) and Arsenal should expect it but that’s it. Chelsea may be in turmoil again, Liverpool will be in transition, we don’t know what Man U will be at all and all three have Europe. We’re clearly still rebuilding, and Villa will have a lot to contend with. I’m also a bit nervous about Palace this year, and outside the first two it feels like everyone will take points off everyone. I genuinely have you in 3rd.

This is what my ‘ridiculous’ comment is based on. If we assume City and Arsenal take two spots then there are only two left for the rest of the established six. Newcastle could have a very, very good season and still not qualify for the Champions League.

 

The expectation is based on some level of overachieving combined with continued underachieving by at least three clubs. That’s why it feels like a stretch to me, but I can also see why people feel like it’s the most appropriate goal.

[ATB]

Agree. But if we sell some players and really focus on a strong eleven we make it. All other clubs have europe also. Can see Villa and Spurs falling off. Then Chelsea and Man United you dont know. Same Liverpool to some extent. If we dont make EL at least I think Howes gone.

[Keegans Export]

11 hours ago, Dokko said:

 

Could be banned from entering due to financial irrigularitues. Interesting month coming up, if the PL don't sign off the hot deal, they are fucked.

I'm sure I read that UEFA don't allow income from selling non-football-related assets (eg hotels) to count towards the FFP calculation. So even if they hadn't essentially sold it to themselves they could still be in trouble.

[Dokko]

11 minutes ago, Keegans Export said:

I'm sure I read that UEFA don't allow income from selling non-football-related assets (eg hotels) to count towards the FFP calculation. So even if they hadn't essentially sold it to themselves they could still be in trouble.

 

Would be worth it for all the macktracking on SM that the conference isn't a worthy competition.

 

I'm fine either way. I'd have like it as it's a chance to win something, but for where our squad depth is, I reckon we'd just see more of the same season with injuries. We're a couple of years away of having depth to cope with more than the PL and 1 cup run. 

[Guest]

Italian clubs seem to take the hit and take any UEFA punishments when they're in one of the lesser competitions. Would be handy for Chelsea to do the same like.

[Guest]

Even if Chelsea opt-out, would the position in UECL pass down to us?

[Keegans Export]

1 hour ago, Jack27 said:

Even if Chelsea opt-out, would the position in UECL pass down to us?

It did when Juventus were banned for this year's competition, their place went to Fiorentina who are playing in the final this week...

 

(At least this is what I've read)

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Jack27 said:

Even if Chelsea opt-out, would the position in UECL pass down to us?

 

It dropped down to Fiorentina in 8th when Juventus accepted their sanction last season after finishing 7th so it should do.

[Fezzle]

Just been educated on Facebook that being in Europe is a waste of time and will cost the club a lot more than we make even by winning it, apparently every club suffers unless it's the champions league......

[The College Dropout]

11 hours ago, timeEd32 said:

This is what my ‘ridiculous’ comment is based on. If we assume City and Arsenal take two spots then there are only two left for the rest of the established six. Newcastle could have a very, very good season and still not qualify for the Champions League.

 

The expectation is based on some level of overachieving combined with continued underachieving by at least three clubs. That’s why it feels like a stretch to me, but I can also see why people feel like it’s the most appropriate goal.

IMO we have by far the strongest squad not playing in Europe.  We already over achieved by getting the best out of Isak and Bruno and the others. We got 60 points this season. We should be looking to get 10 more points next season. That will put us in the CL or very close. 

[timeEd32]

1 hour ago, The College Dropout said:

IMO we have by far the strongest squad not playing in Europe.  We already over achieved by getting the best out of Isak and Bruno and the others. We got 60 points this season. We should be looking to get 10 more points next season. That will put us in the CL or very close. 

I was going to say a points total of at or around 70 feels like a more reasonable goal. Wherever that falls so be it.