NUFC Transfer Rumours

[The College Dropout]

1 hour ago, Sibierski said:

 

 We could sell Miley for £30m and sign Matt O'Rilley as replacement.

 

People probably big that up, but for me that literally doesn't lift the bar. Miley is a good player, we can keep him and still sign a good CM after selling Longstaff and Willock.

Why would we sign Matt O'Riley? Onana level minimum.

 

45 minutes ago, buzza said:

Lascelles and krafth are good back up if we have an injury crisis. Agree, Miley should be loaned out to a lower prem team or at worst top championship team.

We need a couple of midfielders to cover for any sales (willock/longstaff) and also the positions we know need covering from a long time ago

Aye Krafth and Lascelles are injury crisis players. That's fine.

[The Prophet]

Good thread.

[r0cafella]

22 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Good thread.

Can anyone share this in full for those of us without accounts?

 

[The Prophet]

4 hours ago, r0cafella said:

Can anyone share this in full for those of us without accounts?

 

 

Spoiler

**Transfer Window Guide: How It *Really* Works** The transfer window opens today. While it’s often called unpredictable, there’s actually a method to the madness. Once you’ve followed a few windows, patterns become clear—and you’ll realise it’s not as random as it seems. This guide breaks down how most clubs like Arsenal operate during the window, and how the media shape what we see and believe. Some of it might sound like common sense, but many fans still fall for the same traps. There’s a mix of basic knowledge & niche details & “hacks” that’ll help you get a good idea of how a transfer saga will plan out before it even happens. So whether it’s your first window or your 20th, this should have something insightful for you. I recommend reading everything so that you don’t miss anything but I’ve split it into many sections, so if there are things you already know, then you can move onto the next section.

 

**When Do Players Actually Get Signed?** Even though the window officially opens in June, around **90% of signings happen from the first week of July onwards**. Why? Fans assume that their club is just being slow but there are 2 significant reasons. -The financial year for PL clubs ends on June 31st so many clubs strategically wait for the new financial year. -That’s also when players return from holiday and clubs begin pre-season training- it’s simply more convenient for everyone. Deals that have been worked on for weeks or months are often completed just before or during the first week of pre-season (not to be confused with the first game of preseason). So if you see **strong links in May or June**, there’s a high chance they’ll go through in early July. When you see news of a bid going in, a deal being agreed or a bid being accepted etc around the time of the first week of pre season, it’s not a coincidence & they’ve intentionally waited for that time to wrap up the deal. **Examples:** Jesus and Lacazette. **Why Some Transfers Happen Early:** * Clubs need to meet financial deadlines. *E.g. Chelsea selling Havertz before the PSR cut-off.* * Players signing on a free via pre-contract. *E.g. Kolasinac, Lichtsteiner.* * Players wanting clarity before a summer tournament. *E.g. Podolski, Xhaka.* Players being signed via release clause. *If the club had a low spend in the previous summer window, they would have flexibility to spend before July, as it is within the same financial year. **Why Some Transfers Happen Late:** * Player had an extended holiday due to playing in a final or major tournament. *E.g. Rice.* * Player is injured—clubs may delay the deal to avoid paying wages early. *E.g. Tierney.* * It’s a more complicated deal, the selling club needs a replacement, or the buying club is waiting on outgoing transfers. **How Many Players Do Clubs Look At?** Clubs like Arsenal track loads of players. But when they’re ready to buy, they’ll shortlist players based on key criteria: ability, price, age, availability, etc. It’s normal for the club to lay groundwork for **multiple players in the same position**, so if Plan A falls through, they can quickly move to Plan B without starting over. **Example:** Calafiori. Just because Arsenal are “in talks” with a player doesn’t mean they’ve abandoned other targets. But sometimes Plan A is *so much better* than the rest that they won’t even bother with the alternatives. The shortlist can be altered or sometimes even abandoned if a market opportunity arises where a player becomes available for an offer that they can’t ignore. It’s common for players to be offered to the club by their agent or their own club. These are where most of the “out of nowhere” transfers happen. The club genuinely had no plans of signing that player until they were offered to them. **Who at the club is actually involved in transfers?”” The common misconception is that sporting directors & managers are speaking to the selling club throughout the whole process but this is far from the truth. They will be involved in key stages of the deal, such as initial contact, convincing a player to join & closing a deal but a lot of the studf in between is carried out by lawyers, negotiators, accountants & intermediaries. The director sets out a transfer strategy; an action plan on who to contact, when to contact, whether to prioritise speed or money, quantity or quality etc. Then they delegate roles to the right people to execute the plan. Previously, Arsenal’s chief negotiator was Dick Law but since then the structure has changed & the role is split across many people. In extreme cases, the sporting director may speak to the selling party completely on their own. This is usually seen for deals where they want to keep it quiet, as having too many people involved will get the deal leaked.

 

 

Clubs like arsenal walk a thin line between legal & illegal transfer business. Tapping up is when a club speaks to a player about a transfer without the permission of the club. The penalty can range from fines, points deductions and transfer bans. However, in the modern era of football, pretty much every club is tapping up players & going unreported. In the current regime, Arsenal like to convince the player to join Arsenal so much to the point that they don’t want to join anyone else. This will avoid bidding wars with other clubs, as those clubs won’t bother entering a race for a player, if the player doesn’t want to join them in the first place. The only reason the player wouldn’t join Arsenal, if the strategy works, is if Arsenal themselves pull out of the race, because the transfer feee is too high or they’ve gone with another player. **How Do Clubs Pay For Players?** A traditional transfer fee is paid in 2 parts; a base fee & add ons. *A base fee is mandatory & is also in two parts; the up front cost & the instalments. -It’s self-explanatory but the up front cost is the amount of the transfer fee that must be paid now. -The instalments are the remainder of the transfer fee that gets paid over a period of time. There are two common ways that clubs pay instalments. Either they pay them over the period of time of the players contract or the selling club asks for them to be paid in a specific number of instalments. *Add ons are the part of the transfer fee which depend on the player’s success. They are like bonuses. So if the player makes X amount of appearances or scores x number of goals, then the club must pay an additional cost. *Release Clauses are the fixed fee in a players contract that obliges the selling club to accept, if offered. In most cases, the release clause can be paid in instalments, however in La Liga, the entire release clause must be paid all up front.

 

**Other Things to Keep in Mind** * **With no football on**, media outlets often recycle or straight-up invent transfer rumours to stay relevant. * **Watch for “link logic”:** Arsenal need a striker? Suddenly we’re linked to *every* striker on the planet. * **Fake stories can be spotted by looking at consistency and source credibility.** **Just Because You’re Linked, Doesn’t Mean There’s Interest** Sometimes a player is “offered” to a club by their agent or current club—this doesn’t mean the club actually wants to sign them. Therefore if you see reports of your club speaking to a player, it could be the player side doing all the talking.

 

**Media Tactics to Watch Out For** * **Agents use links** to drive up wages or win better contracts—especially when a player is in the final year of a deal. * **Clubs use the media** to drive up selling prices. *Example: West Ham dropping City’s name right before Arsenal submitted their final bid for Rice.*

 

Don’t panic. Think logically. Pay attention to wording. “May have to sell” and “will have to sell” mean totally different things—but often get the same fan reaction. Not everything will follow this exact guide, as the window can still throw up surprises. But understanding these patterns will help you navigate the chaos and avoid falling for media traps.

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 16:00 by The Prophet

[r0cafella]

3 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

 

Sorry, didn't think.

 

  Hide contents

**Transfer Window Guide: How It *Really* Works** The transfer window opens today. While it’s often called unpredictable, there’s actually a method to the madness. Once you’ve followed a few windows, patterns become clear—and you’ll realise it’s not as random as it seems. This guide breaks down how most clubs like Arsenal operate during the window, and how the media shape what we see and believe. Some of it might sound like common sense, but many fans still fall for the same traps. There’s a mix of basic knowledge & niche details & “hacks” that’ll help you get a good idea of how a transfer saga will plan out before it even happens. So whether it’s your first window or your 20th, this should have something insightful for you. I recommend reading everything so that you don’t miss anything but I’ve split it into many sections, so if there are things you already know, then you can move onto the next section.

 

**When Do Players Actually Get Signed?** Even though the window officially opens in June, around **90% of signings happen from the first week of July onwards**. Why? Fans assume that their club is just being slow but there are 2 significant reasons. -The financial year for PL clubs ends on June 31st so many clubs strategically wait for the new financial year. -That’s also when players return from holiday and clubs begin pre-season training- it’s simply more convenient for everyone. Deals that have been worked on for weeks or months are often completed just before or during the first week of pre-season (not to be confused with the first game of preseason). So if you see **strong links in May or June**, there’s a high chance they’ll go through in early July. When you see news of a bid going in, a deal being agreed or a bid being accepted etc around the time of the first week of pre season, it’s not a coincidence & they’ve intentionally waited for that time to wrap up the deal. **Examples:** Jesus and Lacazette. **Why Some Transfers Happen Early:** * Clubs need to meet financial deadlines. *E.g. Chelsea selling Havertz before the PSR cut-off.* * Players signing on a free via pre-contract. *E.g. Kolasinac, Lichtsteiner.* * Players wanting clarity before a summer tournament. *E.g. Podolski, Xhaka.* Players being signed via release clause. *If the club had a low spend in the previous summer window, they would have flexibility to spend before July, as it is within the same financial year. **Why Some Transfers Happen Late:** * Player had an extended holiday due to playing in a final or major tournament. *E.g. Rice.* * Player is injured—clubs may delay the deal to avoid paying wages early. *E.g. Tierney.* * It’s a more complicated deal, the selling club needs a replacement, or the buying club is waiting on outgoing transfers. **How Many Players Do Clubs Look At?** Clubs like Arsenal track loads of players. But when they’re ready to buy, they’ll shortlist players based on key criteria: ability, price, age, availability, etc. It’s normal for the club to lay groundwork for **multiple players in the same position**, so if Plan A falls through, they can quickly move to Plan B without starting over. **Example:** Calafiori. Just because Arsenal are “in talks” with a player doesn’t mean they’ve abandoned other targets. But sometimes Plan A is *so much better* than the rest that they won’t even bother with the alternatives. The shortlist can be altered or sometimes even abandoned if a market opportunity arises where a player becomes available for an offer that they can’t ignore. It’s common for players to be offered to the club by their agent or their own club. These are where most of the “out of nowhere” transfers happen. The club genuinely had no plans of signing that player until they were offered to them. **Who at the club is actually involved in transfers?”” The common misconception is that sporting directors & managers are speaking to the selling club throughout the whole process but this is far from the truth. They will be involved in key stages of the deal, such as initial contact, convincing a player to join & closing a deal but a lot of the studf in between is carried out by lawyers, negotiators, accountants & intermediaries. The director sets out a transfer strategy; an action plan on who to contact, when to contact, whether to prioritise speed or money, quantity or quality etc. Then they delegate roles to the right people to execute the plan. Previously, Arsenal’s chief negotiator was Dick Law but since then the structure has changed & the role is split across many people. In extreme cases, the sporting director may speak to the selling party completely on their own. This is usually seen for deals where they want to keep it quiet, as having too many people involved will get the deal leaked.

 

 

Clubs like arsenal walk a thin line between legal & illegal transfer business. Tapping up is when a club speaks to a player about a transfer without the permission of the club. The penalty can range from fines, points deductions and transfer bans. However, in the modern era of football, pretty much every club is tapping up players & going unreported. In the current regime, Arsenal like to convince the player to join Arsenal so much to the point that they don’t want to join anyone else. This will avoid bidding wars with other clubs, as those clubs won’t bother entering a race for a player, if the player doesn’t want to join them in the first place. The only reason the player wouldn’t join Arsenal, if the strategy works, is if Arsenal themselves pull out of the race, because the transfer feee is too high or they’ve gone with another player. **How Do Clubs Pay For Players?** A traditional transfer fee is paid in 2 parts; a base fee & add ons. *A base fee is mandatory & is also in two parts; the up front cost & the instalments. -It’s self-explanatory but the up front cost is the amount of the transfer fee that must be paid now. -The instalments are the remainder of the transfer fee that gets paid over a period of time. There are two common ways that clubs pay instalments. Either they pay them over the period of time of the players contract or the selling club asks for them to be paid in a specific number of instalments. *Add ons are the part of the transfer fee which depend on the player’s success. They are like bonuses. So if the player makes X amount of appearances or scores x number of goals, then the club must pay an additional cost. *Release Clauses are the fixed fee in a players contract that obliges the selling club to accept, if offered. In most cases, the release clause can be paid in instalments, however in La Liga, the entire release clause must be paid all up front.

 

**Other Things to Keep in Mind** * **With no football on**, media outlets often recycle or straight-up invent transfer rumours to stay relevant. * **Watch for “link logic”:** Arsenal need a striker? Suddenly we’re linked to *every* striker on the planet. * **Fake stories can be spotted by looking at consistency and source credibility.** **Just Because You’re Linked, Doesn’t Mean There’s Interest** Sometimes a player is “offered” to a club by their agent or current club—this doesn’t mean the club actually wants to sign them. Therefore if you see reports of your club speaking to a player, it could be the player side doing all the talking.

 

**Media Tactics to Watch Out For** * **Agents use links** to drive up wages or win better contracts—especially when a player is in the final year of a deal. * **Clubs use the media** to drive up selling prices. *Example: West Ham dropping City’s name right before Arsenal submitted their final bid for Rice.*

 

Don’t panic. Think logically. Pay attention to wording. “May have to sell” and “will have to sell” mean totally different things—but often get the same fan reaction. Not everything will follow this exact guide, as the window can still throw up surprises. But understanding these patterns will help you navigate the chaos and avoid falling for media traps.

 

 

A Scholar and a gentleman as always

[nufc123]

2 hours ago, Jaqen said:

The CM issue definitely needs sorted this summer, we have 6 and the secondary 3 are a massive stepdown from any of the main 3. Miley ahead in the pecking order of the reserves but you basically wouldn't want any of them starting for an extended period of time. 

Tonali, Bruno & Joelinton will be running on empty later in the season if we dont address the CM situation. 

[The Prophet]

Still can't shake the feeling that Elanga will be our right wing signing.

 

We were interested in him last summer.

He's very Eddie Howe (dangerous in transitions, can go on his left or right, etc)

Elanga has said Isak has already spoke to him about the move.

 

It's not the most exciting name, but I think Howe would elevate his game.

[Optimistic Nut]

1 minute ago, nufc123 said:

Tonali, Bruno & Joelinton will be running on empty later in the season if we dont address the CM situation. 

 

Think the problem we have getting depth in midfield is going to be similar to what we have getting a back up striker for Isak. The cost to sign anyone close to that level will be massive and convincing anyone under that level to join knowing they'll be second choice is hard. 

[r0cafella]

2 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Still can't shake the feeling that Elanga will be our right wing signing.

 

We were interested in him last summer.

He's very Eddie Howe (dangerous in transitions, can go on his left or right, etc)

Elanga has said Isak has already spoke to him about the move.

 

It's not the most exciting name, but I think Howe would elevate his game.

I'm sure we will be very interested in him but I think it will be tough to do, the asking price will be high. Forest aren't easy to deal with as we found out with what they gave us for Anderson. 

[Shearergol]

Just now, The Prophet said:

Still can't shake the feeling that Elanga will be our right wing signing.

 

We were interested in him last summer.

He's very Eddie Howe (dangerous in transitions, can go on his left or right, etc)

Elanga has said Isak has already spoke to him about the move.

 

It's not the most exciting name, but I think Howe would elevate his game.

 

I'm convinced it'll be him, and we'll overpay massively for him.

 

As I've said on other threads, he's an upgrade on Murphy but he's not the player we need if we want to address the issues we've seen all season, imo.

[nufc123]

2 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Think the problem we have getting depth in midfield is going to be similar to what we have getting a back up striker for Isak. The cost to sign anyone close to that level will be massive and convincing anyone under that level to join knowing they'll be second choice is hard. 

Problem with the CM depth is that Howe doesnt trust them so we are changing formation and system becauase of that, and I dont think anyone wants to see another fatigued midfield with Luton players running us down.

[janpawel]

If we balanced getting Anthony Elanga with someone like Joao Pedro, then I wouldn't mind it as we'd be adding more technical ability in the middle of the pitch to coincide our pace merchants out wide 

 

Knowing us though it would be Elanga and DCL 😂

[Shak]

Elanga would be interesting as it would seemingly be a commitment to playing a right footed player on the right you’d imagine, Elanga becoming first choice with Murphy his backup.

 

I did feel at times last year we were a 4-3-3/4-4-1-1 hybrid with Joelinton almost serving as the wide left option while Gordon/Barnes were almost playing just off Isak. You could see it in our defensive shape quite well, operated as two banks of four with our LW having a lot less responsibility than Murphy had.

 

I’d personally prefer to stick with the 4-3-3 and buy a left footed player for the RW but just a thought.

[The College Dropout]

3 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Think the problem we have getting depth in midfield is going to be similar to what we have getting a back up striker for Isak. The cost to sign anyone close to that level will be massive and convincing anyone under that level to join knowing they'll be second choice is hard. 

We play with 3 midfielders. You only need 1 player of 3 to get injured, suspended or need a rest to play. We will play 3x a week, every week from September to January excluding international breaks. That's loads of starts and minutes of the bench for another CM.

 

I like the idea of signing a JP/Cunha/Alvarez type. Could drop a CM and play as a 10. Or play instead of Isak in our current setup. 

[Froggy]

8 minutes ago, Shearergol said:

 

I'm convinced it'll be him, and we'll overpay massively for him.

 

As I've said on other threads, he's an upgrade on Murphy but he's not the player we need if we want to address the issues we've seen all season, imo.

 

We have a big sell on clause for Elanga, so I'd imagine Forest will inflate the price even more due to that.

[Paully]

If we do sign any free agents (you know who I’m referring to!) they’ll announce them last - imagine the Twitter meltdown if he (DCL!) or another free agent was announced first?!

[soyt]

Jonathan David is a free agent at the end of this month. I don't think there would be any meltdown if we got him..just saying.

[The College Dropout]

8 minutes ago, Shak said:

Elanga would be interesting as it would seemingly be a commitment to playing a right footed player on the right you’d imagine, Elanga becoming first choice with Murphy his backup.

 

I did feel at times last year we were a 4-3-3/4-4-1-1 hybrid with Joelinton almost serving as the wide left option while Gordon/Barnes were almost playing just off Isak. You could see it in our defensive shape quite well, operated as two banks of four with our LW having a lot less responsibility than Murphy had.

 

I’d personally prefer to stick with the 4-3-3 and buy a left footed player for the RW but just a thought.

Big advantage of Elanga is that he's two-footed. Only scored 11 PL goals, but 6 with his left, 5 with his right or something like that.

[KennyUtd]

23 minutes ago, The Prophet said:

Still can't shake the feeling that Elanga will be our right wing signing.

 

We were interested in him last summer.

He's very Eddie Howe (dangerous in transitions, can go on his left or right, etc)

Elanga has said Isak has already spoke to him about the move.

 

It's not the most exciting name, but I think Howe would elevate his game.

Spoke to him in what way though. As in "come to Newcastle and we'll tear up the league" or "you can come to Newcastle but you're not getting in ahead of my pal Murph"

[SUPERTOON]

I’d take Elanga if we were also going to bring in another attacker who is more technical. I don’t think Elanga alone solves the issues we had at times last season when trying to break sides down or be better in possession.

[Paully]

15 minutes ago, soyt said:

Jonathan David is a free agent at the end of this month. I don't think there would be any meltdown if we got him..just saying.

He's not coming to be Isak’s back-up

[Ikon]

Elanga is effective for teams that sit back and look for counters and transitions and run into space. Otherwise quite lacking in talent and efficiency. Give the ball  to him standing still out wide against low block teams and he offers more or less nothing. He doesn’t use/have any flair or guile to drat the opposition out of shape. 
 

If we want to evolve and progress we need players with better IQ and technical ability. He will cost a bomb while not changing anything but squad depth basically. Would probably improve us actually, but not the degree so it’s worth it. Would be a bit of a waste of money and proper progress to evolve really.  Would be disappointing if we sign him imo. 
 

Yea he would do “well” as he’s not shite. But doing well isn’t enough if we have any ambition to compete at the very highest level. 

[SUPERTOON]

The Chronicle linking us with Madueke, won’t link it as the site is awful.

[janpawel]

The CM recruitment is so much more complicated than the rest, it's a shame that 1 of Longstaff/Willock or Miley (yet...) aren't up to scratch as this would give us so much more flexibility 

 

With the links to Cunha/Pedro, makes me think we are trying to get someone who could play as a CM/AM, and also CF. But it's ashame we can't get both in 2 different players. 

 

Ideally I'd love to have something like Ederson, Pedro, and a new RW. Sell 1 of Willock/Longstaff, loan Osula 

 

We’d have up top - Isak, Pedro, Gordon, Barnes, New RW, Murphy 

 

And midfield - Bruno, Tonali, Joelinton, Ederson, Miley, W/L

 

Isak has a quality and like for like replacement, who can also play as an AM giving us more flexibility 

 

Miley can start off as deputy to Bruno/Tonali, could see how he fares till January 

 

Ederson / Joelinton can rotate in our physically demanding LCM role

 

Shame this is likely impossible cos of FFP, I'd fancy us against anyone with this midfield and forward line

 

 

 

 

[jonny1403]

59 minutes ago, Optimistic Nut said:

 

Think the problem we have getting depth in midfield is going to be similar to what we have getting a back up striker for Isak. The cost to sign anyone close to that level will be massive and convincing anyone under that level to join knowing they'll be second choice is hard. 

 

They aren't really the same. A fourth choice CM will have plenty of opportunities to play as soon as one of Bruno/Joelinton/Tonali get injured/need a rest.

 

A back up striker potentially never starts a PL game if Isak is fit all season.