Who out of the 'big 4' are most likely to fail first?

[Parky]

This is always a tough one to call, especially as they look so impregnable at the moment. New money coming into Liverpool and Man Utd, the millions (pocket money) of Abramovich. The excellent set ups and management teams and the momentum they have built up over the last few seasons.

For me the most likely to start failing or give a chance for the chasing pack to catch up is imo Arsenal.

The main reasons are that they don't have a bottomless pit of money and they are into the banks quite heavily for the new stadium and also that imo they rely too heavily on Henry.

Also with recent events regardless of the media spin, I feel Wenger has been unsettled by Dien's departure. The other thing about Wenger is that he has many suitors in Spain and Italy as does Henry and knowing the type of personality Wenger is ( a keen scholar and student of the game) I feel the pull of Serie A or Barcelona will prove to be too much if Arsenal start to stumble and to be fair they have stumbled a fair bit this year.

 

So for me Arsenal are the most likely candidates to drop out of the 'top 4'.

[ElDiablo]

Arsenal aren't adaptable enough to keep their place in the top 4 consecutively, I think Tottenham with a few good signings could surpass them.

[Dave]

Arsenal are far from great without Henry right now.

[Baggio]

I can see Man Utd dropping off the pace when Fergie retires.

[Cronky]

I think the best hope is for someone to turn it into a big five, although I'd agree that Arsenal look the most vulnerable.

 

They're brilliant to watch, and maybe there's more to come as their players mature, but I have some doubts about their style. This thing of never playing a long ball and always relying on possession, passing and movement must be exhausting. The League Cup final, where they dominated Chelsea for 20 minutes and then gradually ran out of steam - that may be an experience that's set to be repeated a few times. Hope I'm wrong though.

[NUFC06]

Arsenal for sure

 

One of the main reasons apart from Henry being the main factor in their plan game is the fact that Wenger is relying on too many young players.I always respected Wenger about the fact that he is developing young players into top Premiership players.Nevertheless its obvious that Arsenal are the most likely to drop from the top 4 in the upcoming seasons.

They almost did that last season and qualify in the Champions league mainly because of Tottenham failure to win against West Ham.

ATM Chelsea,Man Utd and Liverpool are way ahead of the others clubs in the Premiership

[CaliMag]

I could see any of them having a catastrophic event ending them.

 

It could be ManU

When Fergie retires they are f*cked. The Glazers don't know what the're doing, it'll be strapped with debt, the academy is nowhere near as good as say Liverpool or Arsenal (ManU's has been in decline for a while) and Quiroz has already shown that he hasn't a clue how to make it work at Real.

 

... on the other hand. One car bomb in Moscow could be the end of Chelsea. I can't see Roman's lifespan being very long personally.

[Parky]

I could see any of them having a catastrophic event ending them.

 

It could be ManU

When Fergie retires they are f*cked. The Glazers don't know what the're doing, it'll be strapped with debt, the academy is nowhere near as good as say Liverpool or Arsenal (ManU's has been in decline for a while) and Quiroz has already shown that he hasn't a clue how to make it work at Real.

 

... on the other hand. One car bomb in Moscow could be the end of Chelsea. I can't see Roman's lifespan being very long personally.

 

Very pertinent point about Roman Cali. blueyes.gif

 

[Newcastle Fan]

Arsenal, without a shadow of a doubt

 

Mainly because they play too many youngsters, and over do their playing style, and the fact that they really lack experince make them the worst out of the top 4, they couldnt defeat us in one of our worst seasons.

 

After them i guess it depends,in the league its Liverpool because Rafa's rotation systam means that sometimes they lose the weaker sides -such as us- But in Cup games its Chelsea, because Liverpool play effective/good football in cup matchs that allow them to defeat almost anyone.

 

Manchester are the best side at the moment, they play fantastic, fast, and effective football, all the need is a top goal scorer and a one or two decent back up players and they will be the strongest side in the world.

[1878]

Arsenal easily.

[Martin Lol]

I think Arsenal will be the first to fall from grace, but far from confident about it. 

 

Henry is falling out of love with life in London, Wenger far from happy that Dein has been forced out, I could easily see both of those gone by this time next year and the decline would have started.  Add in the fact that they also need CL football just to keep the books balanced due to the huge debt building the Al Jazeera.  The doubts about their demise stem from Stan Kroenke.  If he is successful in mounting a takeover (I personally think he will in time), Dein will return hanging onto his shirt tails and Wenger then stays, there are no more money worries and progress goes on as normal.

 

So if it's not Arsenal, it'll be Man Utd when Fergie retires.  But even then, Utd will still that aura around them that will enable them to attract the best managers in the world (or Mark Hughes or Roy Keane).  So it's very difficult to visualise them falling by the wayside either.

 

If I'm brutally honest, I find it near impossible to imagine the big 4 not dominating the league.  Which by any stretch of the imagination is depressing.

 

[brummie]

If I'm brutally honest, I find it near impossible to imagine the big 4 not dominating the league.  Which by any stretch of the imagination is depressing.

 

 

I agree on both points.

 

And all these people blathering on about how Liverpool - Man U would be the dream CL final should possibly remember that all that does is make the gap even wider.

[CaliMag]

If I'm brutally honest, I find it near impossible to imagine the big 4 not dominating the league.  Which by any stretch of the imagination is depressing.

 

 

I agree on both points.

 

And all these people blathering on about how Liverpool - Man U would be the dream CL final should possibly remember that all that does is make the gap even wider.

 

A deluded minority - please ignore them.

 

FYI- Wullie is the authority on this subject.

[Superior Acuña]

The sad thing is we were in there just a few years ago.  yet both times we've been in the top, we've fallen after a couple of years, yet arsenal, liverpool, manu, chelsea have managed to stay

[CaliMag]

The sad thing is we were in there just a few years ago.  yet both times we've been in the top, we've fallen after a couple of years, yet arsenal, liverpool, manu, chelsea have managed to stay

 

Steady on mate... you start talking about the glory days --> then we start talking about the Board --> and then this will be the #587 thread hijacked by NE5. Stay on subject.

[Parky]

The sad thing is we were in there just a few years ago.  yet both times we've been in the top, we've fallen after a couple of years, yet arsenal, liverpool, manu, chelsea have managed to stay

 

Steady on mate... you start talking about the glory days --> then we start talking about the Board --> and then this will be the #587 thread hijacked by NE5. Stay on subject.

 

For Gods sake listen to him!11

 

Close one Cali.

[brummie]

The sad thing is we were in there just a few years ago.  yet both times we've been in the top, we've fallen after a couple of years, yet arsenal, liverpool, manu, chelsea have managed to stay

 

Without wanting to state the obvious and not in any way a wind-up, maybe the difference is that they won things?

[Delima]

Honestly I don't understand why big 4 dominating the top echelon is depressing. Personally it is a tremendous joy for me to watch how the rich big 4 trying to outwit the others with astute signing, tactics, strategy and prioritising.

 

Granted it is painful for a Newcastle United supporter to see his team struggling in midtable but it would be a big big crime to football if such a badly run club manage to mount a challenge at the top.

 

Bolton and Reading, with such tiny budget are still serious contenders for the top 6, merely 10 points off Liverpool and Arsenal, hardly an astronomical gap. Tottenham are still a club in progress but with Dawson and Robinson guarding the goal it would be a huge mockery to football if they are in the top 4.

 

Football is not charity and football is still quite a very fair and square game. The top 4 have tons of money but without excellent managers they couldn't have sustained their position.

 

If anything it is West Ham, the bottom table club who do not deserve to be in the premiership for their blatant breach of regulations.

[OzzieMandias]

I can see why most people say Arsenal, but I think you can make a case for either Chelsea or Man U, too. Weirdly, Liverpool seem the most stable. The takeover's gone smoothly, Benitez is securely in charge, the club is pleased with itself, the new owners seem to "get" the place. And even if Benitez buggers up (and it would take more than losing in Athens to AC Milan for him to have done that) I don't think they would be jolted by a change of manager as much as any of the other three clubs.

 

When Ferguson eventually retires, who knows what'll happen at Man U? I was thinking that might be the end of this season, if he'd won a Double or a Triple or something. Now I think he'll be around for another season or two. They'll obviously be able to replace him with a top manager, but you never know, it might not "take". Or a changeover might need loads of cash, and the Glazers might not release enough. Or whatever. Wishful thinking perhaps, but it will definitely be a real wrench when Ferguson goes. He's totally what they are.

 

Chelsea... Abramovich decides that he's spent a fuck of a lot just to win the League Cup and gets bored with the whole thing. Mourinho is replaced by another manager who doesn't really know what to do with a squad so carefully tailored to someone else's system and there is no longer unlimited funds to change it around.

 

Arsenal... It depends whether they can keep Wenger. Under him I think the squad can only get better, and they could get over the loss of Henry, even though they won't be able to replace like with like. Depends what happens behind the scenes, but Wenger isn't going to retire and he isn't going to get the sack. But the whole Dein/Kroenke thing has to play itself out, and that'll leave either a taken-over club with a secure manager and new investment, or a less uncertain set-up under the old mob without Dein, and it's conceivable that a situation might develop where Wenger would want to move on.

 

I think they're all strong enough to weather transition, but they all have their dangerous moments to negotiate.

 

Change also depends on another club being able to challenge for a seat at the top table. Might conceivably be Spurs. If this Thai guy takes over Man City they might make a run for it. But I can't see the balance shifting in the near future. It was at its most open just before Abramovich bought Chelsea -- and just before first Leeds, and then us, dropped out of contention.

 

 

[Martin Lol]

I can see why most people say Arsenal, but I think you can make a case for either Chelsea or Man U, too. Weirdly, Liverpool seem the most stable. The takeover's gone smoothly, Benitez is securely in charge, the club is pleased with itself, the new owners seem to "get" the place. And even if Benitez buggers up (and it would take more than losing in Athens to AC Milan for him to have done that) I don't think they would be jolted by a change of manager as much as any of the other three clubs.

 

When Ferguson eventually retires, who knows what'll happen at Man U? I was thinking that might be the end of this season, if he'd won a Double or a Triple or something. Now I think he'll be around for another season or two. They'll obviously be able to replace him with a top manager, but you never know, it might not "take". Or a changeover might need loads of cash, and the Glazers might not release enough. Or whatever. Wishful thinking perhaps, but it will definitely be a real wrench when Ferguson goes. He's totally what they are.

 

Chelsea... Abramovich decides that he's spent a f*** of a lot just to win the League Cup and gets bored with the whole thing. Mourinho is replaced by another manager who doesn't really know what to do with a squad so carefully tailored to someone else's system and there is no longer unlimited funds to change it around.

 

Arsenal... It depends whether they can keep Wenger. Under him I think the squad can only get better, and they could get over the loss of Henry, even though they won't be able to replace like with like. Depends what happens behind the scenes, but Wenger isn't going to retire and he isn't going to get the sack. But the whole Dein/Kroenke thing has to play itself out, and that'll leave either a taken-over club with a secure manager and new investment, or a less uncertain set-up under the old mob without Dein, and it's conceivable that a situation might develop where Wenger would want to move on.

 

I think they're all strong enough to weather transition, but they all have their dangerous moments to negotiate.

 

Change also depends on another club being able to challenge for a seat at the top table. Might conceivably be Spurs. If this Thai guy takes over Man City they might make a run for it. But I can't see the balance shifting in the near future. It was at its most open just before Abramovich bought Chelsea -- and just before first Leeds, and then us, dropped out of contention.

 

 

 

It won't be Spurs, not in the short term at least.  It really depends on who buys up which clubs and what money they throw at getting things improved.  Villa and Citeh could be contenders soon, Spurs, Newcastle and Everton could be some time in the future.  But overall, I go with your last sentence I highlighted..................  I can't see the balance shifting in the near future.

[Superior Acuña]

The sad thing is we were in there just a few years ago.  yet both times we've been in the top, we've fallen after a couple of years, yet arsenal, liverpool, manu, chelsea have managed to stay

 

Without wanting to state the obvious and not in any way a wind-up, maybe the difference is that they won things?

 

But we've fallen so rapidly both times - and i dont see that's what to do with winning things.  But i just couldnt comprehend it happening to any of those 4 so fast.  96/97 we finish 2nd.  97/98 we finish 13th!  02/03 3rd, 03/04 5th, 04/05 14th!

[OzzieMandias]

It could only be a club with a strong enough fan base which, yes, narrows it down to us, Spurs, Man City, Everton and Villa.

 

The current period of renewed investment might throw up a contender, but I agree it is more likely just to consolidate the clubs already at the top. Still, there is room for mistakes to be made, and opportunities to be siezed, until the new ownership landscape settles down.

[OzzieMandias]

I want to see how the vote is going but I don't want to cast my vote for any one club just so I can have a look.