Making a prediction about a specific transfer window (it will be crap) based on past performance is one thing. Waiting until the end of the window to assess its levels of crap is entirely another.
To use your polar ice cap analogy, the former is saying "we see this trend of ice caps melting and think it will continue" and the latter is "let's see if ice is refreezing or continuing to melt faster in this specific period." The former makes a prediction the latter is verifying it, but not jumping to conclusions.
Has nothing to do with supporting or not supporting ashley.
for the record: he is crap and I think this window will very likely be a huge disappointment. I just can't agree that a final verdict can be passed before the end of it.