The College Dropout

If you’ve listened to some of the reasons Maresca was unhappy at Chelsea you know there’s basically zero chance Howe would go to work in that type of setup. The Chelsea head coach job is to qualify for the CL and develop players to be sold. That means enforced squad rotation. That means developing player for 2 years, they become regular contributors and then they are sold to sign a new 21 year old. Howe’s not going to join that.

If Nuno can’t save west ham they are done. Re football podcasts - The Athletic one has journalists that are clearly ok the Chelsea payroll or close to ppl at the club and it’s sickening. In some of their other reporting - it’s clear it’s clear the Chelsea head coach role is for a patsy and the ownership don’t care about winning.

Think he’s been 7/10 overall since he’s come back from the ACL. Not as good as the other CBs.

On fbref his regressions passing stats are poor.

Aye. This lad is not a progressive passer at all. He’s a safe passer so any progressive passes he makes will find his man. But he rarely tries them. Jenas had the same issue. In fact Jenas had better physical attributes. Really solid technically. But was so passive. Rarely passed it forward. Ramsey has ability too.

I’m not talking about outcomes I’m talking about profiles and process. You sign a 29 year old striker for a premium price - you’re not likely to make your money back. Even if he does well. Not many clubs will spend £55m on a winger as limited technically as Elanga with his same reputation. Brennan Johnson is a similar case - sold for £50m to Spurs - 11 PL goals last season, 5 in the Europa league including the winner in the final. But then sold for £35m. Maybe could’ve got £40m-45m but fundamentally he doesn’t have the technical ability to be a mainstay at perennial European contenders so the market for a player of that profile is limited. Conversely Thiaw is still young, quick, good in the air, might become regular international. He could be worth £50-60m. He has the profile. We’ve got a good number of players where we’ve bough them at peak value. With PSR constraints that doesn’t make sense. 1 or 2 is fine and probably needed.

Yep - that Vicario was getting loads of plaudits when he first joined. Put that ball on his head and he struggled majorly and everyone has clocked on.

I agree we’ve spent poorly. It’s just not going to be easy replacing cornerstone players that have taken us this far. No foreign league is as physical as the PL so whatever they do isn’t easily translated. Marmadashvelli hasn’t impressed in his few appearances and he was meant to be the dogs bollocks. We’re not replacing Martin Dubravka and Ciaran Clark anymore.

This is why I say you have to watch football with your eyes. Whether they perform excellent or not - Marc Guehi is a good footballer and so is Cunha. Highly regarded in the game - even if he flopped here he would get a move to a good club for good money. Cunha semi flopped at Atleti and was sold for a profit (Mendes fuckery). you’re theorising someone that may end up at Liverpool or Real Madrid might have flopped for us. Elanga and Wissa aren’t players of that stature in the game. They could do well and still only break even this summer or next. Wissa it’s just age. Elanga just doesn’t have the technical ability or reputation to justify the money.

There was nothing to suggest he was going to be a lot better.

Said it for a long time - replacing Nick Pope is going to be tremendously difficult. £25m in Europe to find a top keeper - it’s just that easy

I’m counting this season as their third year. They’re on track for an 80 point season at the halfway point and currently sit 2nd in the league. If they only collect the same amount of points as we’ve managed so far in the final 19 games they would still be challenging for CL. They’ve been consistent - actually improving. 68 points + Europa QF, 66 points + CL QF & FA Cup semi is more impressive imo and if if if they can get 75 points or more that would be progress again. We have done wonders to qualify twice. But we’ve not sustained a challenge in back to back seasons let alone 3. Europa League football and a 6th place finish from here would be a gigantic success from our current position.

Cunha, Sesko and Mbeumo are good players. Whether they succeed or not is down to Man U. If they sold Cunha in the summer they would get their £60m back. We would not make our £55m back on Elanga or Wissa or £45m on Ramsey. If we signed Guehi for £60m he would still be worth £60m or more come the summer. If he’s fit he’s starting for England at the World Cup. Guehi’s stature in the game has grown since we were linked with him. He’s going to have his pick of nearly every club in the world. I like the Thiaw deal now and I was sceptical of the Guehi transfer. But I now think Guehi would’ve been a fantastic signing. He usually brings great composure and leadership and that’s what we need to keep as we phase out Schar and Burn.

Identifying profiles and having pull to sign high reputation players left with Ashworth and Staveley.

Tbf Villa have challenged for CL 3 seasons straight. It can be done but it shouldn’t be the baseline.

He can cross and he’s rapid. He has skills. But like Murphy - he doesn’t have the fundamental ability needed to be a high level player. So he can be a new version of Murphy at best. But we still need a better player in that position.

I don’t want to re litigate it. But Athony Elanga is not a very good footballer at this level. Even if he becomes an effective player this needs to be watershed moment in our transfer approach Ala Antony at Man U. I don’t rate Amorim but Man U’s transfer business has been better since they admitted their previous approach was yielding poor results.

Agreed both are good players imo. But poor profiles considering PSR constraints. It would be seen as good if we sold both for price we bought them even if they were both successful for us - that’s not great profiling considering the big fees. If it was just those 2 it would be fine. But then you throw in Ramsey, Elanga and suddenly it’s £200m we struggle to make back. The Vlach swap deal was the worse swap deal that was made. Everyone else swapped talented youngsters that might appreciate in value Maatsen, Dewsbury-Hall(ok not young but a good player), Onana. We got a 30 year old goalkeeper. Regardless though - I would’ve trusted Staveley and co. to continue to attract top talent and sell the vision to anyone that would listen. Righting their wrongs.

Since Ashworth left we’ve: sold 2 of our best youngsters in 2 critical positions. Legitimately costing us over £100m+ Signed Joelinton onto a massive contract when he was probably best sold signed Gordon (which is good) to a new contract Failed to sign on Isak causing us uncertainty and disruption this summer at the least spent £70m on Wolte spent £55m on Wissa spent £55m on Elanga spent £45m on Ramsey spent £35m on Thiaw spant £5m on Ramsdale for a loan spent £15m on Osula and likely to make £25m in sale value lost out on about a dozen targets ranging from Guehi to Etikite to Sesko Got Kelly for free and then sold him for £20m in the next window Not signed a new contract for Tino which is becoming a major issue sold Isak for £130m but it caused mass disruption to the summer sold Minteh for £30m - his value has likely increased sold Anderson for £35m his value has atleast doubled. And in return we signed Vlad for £20m. Essentially selling Anderson for £15m and he’s now worth at least £70m I think that’s 90% of the key first team activity over the last 22 months transfer and contract wise (not including extensions for Schar and Burn). It’s a mixed bag at best maybe 5 out of 10 probably a 4 imo. 2 years prior to that brought us: - Trippier for £10m - Isak for £60m - Tonali for £55m and an extension - Bruno for £35m and an extension and a release clause that has expired - Burn for £10m - Pope for £10m - Botman for £35m - Tino for £40m - Barnes for £45m - Hall for £35m - Wood in and out for £20m a piece - Gordon £45m Thwres more but that’s 8.5 out of 10 at worst. It’s the quality that got us our trophy and CL football. It’s night and day transfer wise since Ashworth and Staveley and co left. Our pull in the transfer market has fallen off a cliff since Staveley left. The profile of player we sign and sell has gone entirely in the wrong direction since Ashworth left.

Every place counts in the CL

I will say - when we were linekd with JP & Etikite (and even Woltmade) I did think there was a plan to play 2 up top as an option. Or with 1 of them as a 10 as they have all either done that or have th skillset to do so. Evolve us into more of a possession side. But so far it looks like Howe just wanted an option of someone that would drop off a bit more in largely what is the same role in the team. And he was just going to rotate them. That doesn't seem like the smartest allocation of funds. I thought the team needed to think beyond Joelinton and it seems that think beyond Joelinton is Jacob Ramsey and not a 1-1 up top. i doubt Ramsey has enough about his game off the ball to pull that off. Ramsey is old Willock at best.

This echoes what you can see if you've been trying to analyse Howe's approach over the last 4 years. Doesn't matter really who said it. You can see it. Yep the issue is that this team needs to do it with Joelinton, Burn & Pope. We are too weak, lack composure without them or better yet their replacements are.

TBH I feel like you sign 17yo's because they are talented and have a good enough mindset. Not necessarily because there's a squad space for them. A 17 yo may not be fundamentally ready for top level elite football - especially in midfield. If you have the budget you have a 25 man squad of senior players. That's 2 for every position and 3GKs. You add kids to that. At 19 they need minutes but they can get them on loan too. At 17, they can sit and watch mens football often. As of now Willock is one of 6 CMs and we play 3. Willock is not like Lascelles who is the 5th CB of 2. --- Separately - with Howe's style of play I think we'll always need a slightly older squad. There's a certain mentality Howe demands that benefits experience.

You don't sign a 17-yo with the intention of them adding big value in the current season. Doesn't make them bad transfers but doesn't address the current problems. We do need more long-term thinking.

These are running out of legs and have injuries. they bought a lad from Ajax in the summer but atm they are playing a 34-year-old fullback as a Wing Back.