stozo

100% agree total clanger by Pope. But Beto is 2-3 yards behind Hall when the ball is struck and Hall is probably 5 yards behind him when Beto taps it in. Definitely no guarantee Hall gets there but he was totally asleep to the idea the ball could come back out whereas Beto was moving towards goal before it had even hit Pope’s gloves.

Our attack continues to struggle. And when that’s the case you cannot give away soft goals. I’m actually more angry with Hall than Pope for the second - Pope is a genuine mistake, Hall not bothering to follow Beto on the follow up is just lazy.

Strange one as I thought at the start of the season he showed promise, but did nothing in either of these CL games against Qarabag despite getting given a fair crack.

Possibly but in a non-European football scenario I imagine we’ll loan Neave out with a recall option and just go with Wissa, Woltemade and Gordon as the strikers.

ASM went to Al Hilal, which is PIF owned. You are absolutely right we could sell to a non-PIF club but spend levels are falling in Saudi (particularly among the non-PIF owned clubs) and they are generally pivoting towards younger players. So I think a purchase from a non-PIF club at £45m+ is wishful thinking probably.

Wissa to Saudi doesn't work as would be an associated party transaction under UEFA rules. So you need to find a non-Saudi club to give us £45m for him.

The two additional points are we're assuming in the above we don't replace Krafth (I'm guessing Shahar takes his place in the squad) and also worth observing that potentially someone like Osula leaves without a replacement if we miss Europe altogether.

I'd be pretty surprised if we get a RW in the summer. I think people are massively underestimating how close to shot at this level Trippier, Burn and Schar are. Even if Schar renews, this is the summer where probably have to buy younger replacement. I'd be very, very surprised if Tripps renews. So you're already looking at needing a LB, RB and a CB. That also assumes Tino doesn't go to City which is very possible. If that happens you need 4 new defenders. You're then looking at a new goalkeeper (whether to replace Ramsdale or Pope, preferably the latter) and almost certainly at least one midfielder as we'll sell Willock in the summer as our last chance to make some money on him. So you're at 6 new players before you even touch RW, and given we know how long it takes players to bed in under Howe I can't see us going for more than 6 new players. That all also assumes Tonali doesn't go, which would take us to 7 new arrivals before RW. And also assumes we don't choose to cash in on Osula - which would probably mean 8 new arrivals before touching RW.

Absolutely bizarre we don’t play again for nearly a month and then play 3 games in the space of a week. Anyway, given two of those three games are Palace and Birmingham, we’ll likely know by the end of that week if there is any chance of us getting promoted. As for today, another mediocre performance against the team at the bottom of the league. The problems remain for all to see and personally I would be very surprised if we are in the promotion race at the end of that pivotal week.

First time we've got to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup in three consecutive seasons since 1997-2000. Last time it happened before that was the 1950s. Every time you look at the record books you realise what a golden era for the club Howe has led us too.

Football is so much more enjoyable when you don’t have VAR interfering, eh…

I could see us going 4-2-3-1 for this with potentially both Wissa and Woltemade - mainly to give one of the midfielders a rest ahead of Qarabag.

I think that's a totally fair take. It's a really tricky one as it's fucking shit when without VAR there is a clear error but equally I didn't celebrate Willock's goal when it went in because I knew either way it would be a tight VAR call. Takes the joy out of the game a bit.

The Wenger rule will have exactly the same issues. You'll have VAR hyper-analysing whether any 'daylight' exists and they'll be some incredibly marginal calls. Ultimately it's a case of do you want VAR where 99% of offsides are correctly but you have reviews lasting several minutes and goals snatched away or do you want to do it the old way and accept that now and again they'll be some shocking mistakes in big games.

Getting better with every game.

The tolerance level is built into the VAR review. The centimetres of Willock's head that was offside was the amount he was offside after the tolerance level was applied.

It's not a complete write off, but I think you are relying on something like this Simone Charley who signed on deadline day being an absolute world beater to make it happen. We just don't score enough goals at the moment. We've dropped points so far this season against Ipswich (11th), Sheffield United (10th) and Durham (9th). And we were a late, late winner from doing the same against Portsmouth (bottom of the league). We aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination but until we start consistently putting 2 or 3 away against bottom half teams, then we'll always be at risk of dropping points and that'll probably cost us promotion.

Sadly I think this is very optimistic. Getting promotion now probably means being absolutely faultless in our remaining games, including beating 2nd place Birmingham. I say that because given the fact we got slaughtered by West Ham in the FA Cup, it's very unlikely the 3rd place WSL 2 team is going to win a promotion/relegation play-off against whoever finishes bottom of the WSL. So it's pretty much 2nd place or bust.

Hard to say exactly as the percentage of the theoretical five million we would be fined depends on how much overall we breach SCR by. But it’s already pretty well documented that this season will be a fairly substantial breach, largely because some of our previous transfer business (e.g. Anderson sale, which is viewed by UEFA as a swap not a sale) is not compliant with UEFA rules. I think the easiest way to explain it is there is such a broad spectrum still of revenue outcomes this season that the club very likely think about it as a spectrum risk. There are obviously some outcomes like good CL progress and CL qualification again where we’d be fine, but equally there are outcomes like elimination in the CL Play Off Round and only getting Conference League which would put us probably in dicey territory, and obviously there is a spectrum of outcomes in between those two (and irony of ironies, our financial constraints would probably be less restrictive if we miss Europe). The simplest way to think about it though is that potentially a loan signing could mean we have £20k-£30k per week less to spend next season (and I’m being conservative on numbers here - it could be more). Does that sound a massive deal? No. Could it be a massive deal if a top target won’t come because we are short that amount in our wage offer or a Tino (for example) chooses to push for a transfer because our contract offer is short of his expectations by that amount. Yes, that would be a massive deal and problematic.

Because any decent loan signing is going to come with a loan fee, which will be booked fully in this year, which will increase the amount we breach UEFA SCR by, which will increase the UEFA SCR breach fine we receive which will fall into next year, reducing the amount we have to spend. I get the point you are making about higher league placement but that cuts right to the crux of the difficult decision the people in charge had to make - it MIGHT do exactly that. Equally Mr. Backup Loan RB could roll his ankle in the first game, have no impact and then you’ve massively fucked the plans for next season for no gain. It’s a gamble and we chose not to gamble. Which is 100% the right call given that the last time we gambled it cost us two of the best young players in Europe. There is even less case for ‘signing a backup’ in that in the new SCR world being stuck with their wages for five years is problematic. Anyone we sign now needs to either be a XI starter or a young talent we can develop (but who prob won’t be game ready in season 1).

Sadly I think we do as the way it works is we’ll get a small fine this time (a few million) but a massive suspended fine (probably £20m+). That basically means we have to start complying from next year with UEFA SCR or find a way to account a profit or extra revenue that mitigates the impact or taking the larger suspended fine.

It does because it increases the amount we will breach UEFA SCR by, which in turn will increase the fine we receive.

Just to add to this - that’s without touching on the fact that maybe there is also a moral argument that fans should show a bit more decency towards a man who seems to have given every moment of his life for the past few years to this club and won us our first domestic trophy in 70 years as a result.

Of course you can’t blame the fans for the appointment. But what I am effectively saying is, when people boo at FT they are doing so on an evidence free assumption that better things will follow. If I was a betting man, I would say there is an extremely strong possibility a Howe successor could be worse. The real question is - do we trust PIF to get the next appointment absolutely spot on? A new stadium, new training ground, lack of investment in the women’s team says to me I would not have complete trust.

Of course there are other actors involved (not least the owners) but fundamentally it the SBR sacking led to some terrible appointments, which built pressure on the ownership, who then flogged the club to a charlatan who crippled the club for more than a decade. The fans turned on the man who, as it turned out, was holding everything together.