timeEd32

We have all summer to talk ourselves into the Europa League if needed. For now there's no reason to not be dreaming about trips to the Bernabeu, Stade Velodrome, and the real Stadium of Light.

You're countering mathematical odds (which aren't perfect of course) with emotional arguments. There's no end to this debate. This is the most wrong thing you've said though. I'm going to vomit if I read one more time about how in form Liverpool are. I'd be much more on the side of how questionable the odds are if we had been playing like them. They could have easily dropped up to 6 points in the last few weeks. Maybe they ride this good fortune all the way to the end. BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER if we beat a Leeds side that has won two games since February (shipping 32 goals in the process) and a Leicester side who have one 1 out of their last 15 games having just conceded five to "on the beach" Fulham.

If you take a mix of 538 and the betting sites the consensus is we're roughly 90% likely to finish in the top 4. Those that think 90% is too high seem far too focused on Liverpool. Their results only matter if we can't win two of our remaining games. If we played these fixtures 100 times how many times do you think we'd fail to earn 6 or 7 points? And then in those times we do fail to do it we have the safety net or Liverpool dropping points and/or Man United dropping points. Honestly, it seems about right and that's why you can make a decent amount of money if you bet against us right now. It doesn't mean it can't happen. Even at these odds there are 10 out of 100 scenarios where we fail to do it. This seems apt right now: The odds seem more ridiculous when you tell stories of the mighty Liverpool, a Newcastle United who always fail to get it done, and Manchester United being a foregone conclusion because of who they are. And Brighton losing shouldn't change anything because little Brighton was never going to get it done anyway.

Sorry, but this doesn't make any sense. If we accept that Brighton were effectively eliminated today (or their odds were greatly reduced) then it benefits all of the teams in the race. And, in fact, it benefits Newcastle and Man United more because Brighton had a higher potential points number than Liverpool did. Newcastle and Man United now need less points than they did before today to finish in the top 4.

I'm not here to defend Nate Silver, but you mean the betting odds that are within a few percentage points of what 538 says?

I'm obviously biased, but I realized yesterday there are few sights in world football more exciting than Isak, ball at his feet, running full speed at defenders.

I hope we do. Real Madrid at SJP would be something.

Hoping for it, need to erase the Ashley era derbies.

If we were still owned by Mike Ashley I'd be 100% rooting against the mackems. But with where we are now I can't imagine anything more fun than a derby at SJP.

Over the last two years they've more often than not lost big games against good sides. Take it as a compliment.

It would be massively disappointing, but we've won 8 out of our last 10 games. To this point we've shown no signs of limping to the finish line.

Nailed it. The general opinion of some sound Arsenal fans is that's probably the best away performance they've put in all season (Spurs the other very good one). They are very proud of how their team did yesterday and think we were tough opposition. That makes it even better that there are a lot of things we could have done better and the fact the game could have turned on a handful of moments.

I'd be a lot more nervous if we were playing like Liverpool and they were playing like we are.

We were as well at Everton (more down to them being shit than missing any chances). We were a mess.

Per xG both of those chances were half as good as Willock's and also not as good as Murphy's off the post. And Willock's 2nd half chance that Xhaka made an excellent block on was essentially equal to the Martinelli off the bar chance.

I would agree we didn't play particularly well at times and I think they were very good. But here's the top 5 chances of the game by xG: 1. Odegaard at the end of the half 2. Schar's header 3. Saka's one on one 4. Isak off the post 5. Willock's first half chance To say they could have scored four or five is extreme (though sure, they could have had they been both extraordinarily clinical and fortunate), but to completely ignore our chances like we were never in the game is an incredibly negative view of what we just watched.

You don’t remember Willock’s chance in the first half? Or the penalty shout? Or Schar’s header that forced an outstanding save by Ramsdale?

Do you only remember the negative parts of games? FFS, you’d think we just got played off the park by Southampton.

I would have signed up for this before the game:

The general reaction by pundits is they just watched a great game of football between two very good teams and, on the whole the right team probably won today, but it could have gone either way. Somehow some on here think the sky is falling.

Honestly what is there to say? We lost 2-0 to the head and shoulders second best team in the league. We hit the post at the beginning of each half, either of which would have changed everything. We had another couple chances that we’d score more often than not. I can’t imagine how today drastically changed anything for anyone and if you’re looking to use today to victory lap prior concerns then honestly I’d question if you’re rooting for the failure to happen.

Botman just looked at Trossard like “why are you so little?”

And they may have scored 4 or 5 but would have preferred that. And no, that’s not would prefer to lose 4-3 shit — this has just been extremely frustrating.

Really is

15 minutes before this thread becomes the worst place on the internet for 6 days.