Jagten

To sell Tripper for a fee that represents a positive risk/return would require a high-value buyer in need or a short-ish term fix, which Bayern are. There's no guarantees there's a market for that in the summer. Likewise, there appears to be no market right now for an Almiron, who I would also much rather sell. I agree there's obvious downsides, and I don't have the data to make a confident decision, but I tend towards doing it.

It's an expectation over the next ~5 years though. Of course, he cannot be replaced right now, but we can replace his impact over that duration, during which he stops playing.

His transfer record isn't actually that bad, even if it's difficult to know the level of involvement he's had in every deal. Clearly there was great talent ID in moving Bournemouth through the football league, even if this doesn't always scale well to PL. In his last two years at Bournemouth, he also spent circa 60m on non-UK players: Danjuma, Lerma, Rico (not these guys were a great use of 60m).

Sure, but the fact he has generally been so remarkable, in his position at his age, is extremely rare. Generally full backs peak and drop-off the earliest. Aside from Kyle Walker, I can't think of many other great full backs over 32.

Billing is alright but he's not even in the Bournemouth team at the moment. No known contract situation to exploit so don't see how it remotely makes sense.

Given his salary (assuming no man city pay off)you’re probably looking at 10-15 max tbh, and I like him.

Fans of 11th place Norwich are extremely against the idea of them re-singing Hayden. He's shit. https://forum.pinkun.com/index.php?/topic/155124-isaac-hayden/

Gotta hope it's a Saudi player. Makes a lot of sense, especially in context of a short-term, FFP-compliant fix, which Joelinton means we really need. I don't think people could dislike us more anyway.

Our midfield is definitely flat by design, and our out-of-possession game looks like it might have been "figured out", in combination with an absence of intensity in the press.

I think it's weird in the sense that whilst it's been impossible to make a call on individuals, recent tactical challenges indicate we might have identified the wrong player profiles. I don't think anyone is right, yet - either those saying the signings are excellent or the window was a failure.

Yes, but extremely difficult to do that with Joelinton and Longstaff in midfield.

Agreed, and I meant defensive unit. I think the tweet also agrees and suggests why

Some interesting analysis on what is now probably the most porous defense in the league here https://x.com/jon_mackenzie/status/1746354228828766487?s=46

For fans of charts, our rolling average expected goals diff has closed. It is very rare to see an averaged xG go limit-up like that.

Not that close in the end https://x.com/optaanalyst/status/1746253844739186861?s=46

Def getting on board with this guy being our best player

They’re making us look like a plucky lower-league team who’ve gone too far in the FA cup. Not sure who this says more about.

Given our ambition and FFP constraints we want to buy elite upside optionality. The perceived lower variance outcomes of buying domestic make people feel like we're not getting that (even if they have no opinion of X foreign player). Once a player has been a success to the level we now require domestically, buying the elite upside cheaply is incredibly difficult to do. We need a unique catalyst for PL value, which is rare at the level we're looking for - age, contract, financial trouble, etc.

Solanke is better. Jonathan David is mid as and there's a reason nobody has bought him.

Interesting because a lot of their numbers are actually slightly worse than last season. If I had to bet on anyone to fall off it would be them.

Depends on the model, but not generally. It can additionally be a function of many variables, such as opposition player positions, ball speed, ball trajectory, etc.

He is clearly very good and is much better than Gerrard but even a 38-game season isn't a very big sample size statistically. Union Berlin are a great example of this, who were the underlying-numbers overachievers in Europe last year. Now things look much less great for them.

For sure, but the extent to which we can attribute other injuries to the physical demands of our style is probably non-zero I think Tonali’s greatest asset is out of possession, and I don’t think he’s quite the technician many might hope. What’s odd is that Barella definitely was that person, and I’m not sure Tonali was the next logical step

It was the profiles that were disappointing, more so than the positions. Whilst neither have really played (and what I say might turn out to be incorrect), Tonali and Barnes reflected a concentration of our position in our existing tactical framework, failing to consider that aspects of it might be unsustainable, especially under fatigue (some of which was very unlucky).

Great post. I thought, and still think, we have gone too long Howe and last season's tactical template. Ashworth probably assumes most of the responsibility here, as his job should have been to hedge this (with e.g. the profiles you mentioned).