Jagten

Opta's xG model parsed without incorrect chance accumulation, for fellow statos. Still all-time terrible

zinger!

Shame our opposition tonight didn't have the same perspective, and then maybe their team would be less good.

I think because most xG is used as the objective function for modelling player performance, with deriving stuff like "on ball value". At a micro level individual chance creation is maybe more important, but there are differing views.

Most public models do this, correct, but for results analysis it should really be one minus sum of prob of not scoring in continuous passage, i.e. two 0.7xg chances in the same passage gives 1 - (0.3 * 0.3) = 0.91xG.

The numbers have, until now, supported him, but that expected goal diff is as bad as it will get for any team in the league in basically any season.

It could have been 10. Probably a record xG conceded this season.

Approx 3.5 xG vs our 0.1, for fans of violence.

Well, that was mostly horrific.

But he was also complicit in his signing at 85, and he’s not worth 40m either. I’d sack everyone involved tbh.

But that’s not inferring chance quality. Anyway, this is all an approximation.

Fair enuf. I think most of our season’s underlying performances have been mostly good (and better than sentiment), but we’re starting to concede a high volume of good goal scoring opportunities.

Maybe of some interest - a ten game rolling (exponential) moving average of our xG for and against over the last three seasons. You can almost see the moment Bruce was sacked.

Fair to question whether there’s value in buying from Arsenal. Your reply was weirdly aggressive.

Wut

Extremely difficult to extract value prices from Arsenal players - see Balogun for 30-40m.

Consensus was we overpaid

I interpret the Barnes criticism as frustration that we didn't buy elite upside, and that we concentrated the skillset of our wingers, i.e. none of them are very good in 1v1s. Tonali was/is, for me, the greater question, re profile and value.

Agreed. I think he knows what he's good at.

Nothing new, but limitations obvious

Decisions with respect to personnel to maximise the probability of ultimately winning the Champions League vs being a functional Premier League team are very different and possess entirely different risk profiles, especially in the context of KSA funding. Margins are smaller, downside tail risk is less. If we went too early on Howe, would it even matter?

Which one is a massive underperformance? Forest gave accumulated that level of expected goals once this season, which was at home to Luton.

His influence has certainly grown. His nephew is "head of first team technical scouting".

Is this from Wikipedia?

His whole thing is a fairly complex pressing structure so inevitable it took time