Paullow

It would take all of the following: Newcastle to lose to Arsenal and Burnley, probably by a margin of around 5 or 6 combined Leeds to beat Chelsea, Brighton, Brentford, probably by a margin of 8 or 9 combined (basically a swing of 14 goals in those 5 results between Leeds and Newcastle). Burnley to beat Spurs, Villa, Newcastle Everton to get 8+ points from Watford, Brentford, Palace, Arsenal, which maybe could happen Southampton to beat either Liverpool or Leicester, and make sure their GD remains better than ours, or 4 points Leicester to draw one of their last 4 matches

Yes, but it would take the most ridiculous sequence of events that you could ever think of

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation It's ridiculously tight. Burnley with the 'point' advantage of GD (which won't be overturned), but Leeds perhaps the slightly better fixtures, and perhaps a little bit of extra individual quality. If Arsenal beat Spurs on Thursday then that Spurs fixture doesn't look quite so tough for Burnley as Spurs will be guaranteed to finish 5th regardless of how they get on in their final 2 matches, although you'd still probably expect them to win. With Everton as long as 12/1 and with the remaining fixtures to maybe even threaten to get past us, I certainly won't be hoping Burnley beat us on the final day now, as I'd prefer Leeds to stay up out of the main 2 in question.

I swear I listened to a Howe interview with Geoff Shreeves last night when asked about next season the top 6 and Howe said we were miles away from those, but I can't find it now

I've already given my opinion that we are currently a fair way off those 7-10/11 type clubs and 4 quality signings would properly take us into that echelon, not constantly scraping one goal wins where we are sometimes quite fortunate like vs Leicester, Villa, Brighton etc. which could easily go the other way when the feel good factor is not quite as prevalent, or very fine margins like Watkins goal where if they drew those lines a CM the other way, nobody would have batted an eyelid. Bruno and Trippier could operate at the top 6 level, Wilson when fit just outside, ASM on a good day etc. but after that it's not great. Dubravka, Schaar, Burn, Targett, Shelvey, Willock, Fraser, Murphy, Wood, Almiron etc. are all mid table at absolute best, most of them bottom half, which is why IMO that cracking run was so unexpected, albeit perhaps not sustainable, and why Howe deserves enormous credit for changing the fortunes (I'm not really sure where Joelinton fits in longer term, he's a cult hero, and has been very good, but the jury is still out for me). We'll never agree because you've obviously been massively optimistic in recent months, but that's what forums are for. It does look however from within the club, and recent Howe interviews, that the aim next year is to be a solid 8-10 type club (with the additions) and keep bridging the gap year on year, and if we were to actually genuinely challenge the top 6 next season then many would be very surprised, and others seemingly not so much.

Sorry yeah, I realise that wasn't the most clear sentence. What I meant was a(n albeit fellow ambitious) Villa side who finished mid table last year and have been in the bottom half for about 90% of this one, looking to replace him (at the time) kind of says that they don't think he's good enough for where they ultimately want to go, so we should perhaps be having the same mindset, even if he was largely been good / solid since he came in. He'd certainly be fine for next season, but I'd think we'd be looking for better after that, and then he would pretty much be in the same situation as he was at Villa in a years time, and he obviously didn't fancy waiting in the wings at your place, so would surely be similar here.

Trippier obviously fine. Jury out on Targett - he would be a familiar face instead of a(nother) completely new one, which could be important, but he's probably mid table at best / bottom half, and Villa looking to replace him does kind of suggest something. I think a quality CB is essential, whether we go back to Carlos or Botman (if not Milan bound), or someone completely new, and then Schaar and Burn rotating will probably be fine for a year, before improving again the following season. I'd put Dubravka in a similar boat, lower mid table, could certainly do better, but probably fine for at least one more season. So: --------------------------------Dubravka------------------------------------- Trippier--------------New CB-------Burn/Schaar-------------New LB / Targett

We have, as referenced in the text you quoted, but we are still a hell of a long way off the top 6, even with Trippier and Wilson. We've the 4th worst goal difference in the league, and are -26 in our 11 matches against the big 6, and it'll take more than 4 quality additions to bridge that, and you wouldn't really want 7 or 8 top players (which is pretty much needed) coming in at once, especially on the back of 4 or 5 in January, even if FFP wasn't a thing.

I think Sunderland will be happy with that. MK Dons have absolutely battered Wycombe, 68% possession, 27 shots to 2, 18 corners to 1, but could only win 1-0, so lose 1-2 on aggregate, and 6th place Wycombe await the winners of tomorrow in the final. Betting wise, whoever wins tomorrow will be favourites, whereas MK Dons would probably have been had they made it.

Obviously some were under Bruce / early Howe days, but our record this season vs the Big 6, or Top 7 if West Ham pip Man Utd (with Arsenal still to play) is played 13 won 0, drew 2, lost 11 which is absolutely shocking. We did exchange home wins with Leicester and Wolves, but Leicester made about 6 changes and their mind was fully on Europe at the time (which they won't have next season), and it took a last second goal against the run of play to win it. I was going to say Wolves were missing their best players at SJP, and a much different Wolves, particularly in terms of mindset, to earlier in the season, but then I guess we have missed a few key players, and it is part of the game. I still say realistically 8th at best, or 9th-10th with decent recruitment should be the aim for next season, and hearing that mini clip from Howe, sensibly, that looks like what the aim is going to be.

For me, I'd like a quality CB, CM, RM, ST and then, along with Bruno, Trippier, Joe, Wilson (when fit), ASM, etc. I'd be confident of genuinely competing with the likes of West Ham, Wolves, Leicester etc. for the 8-10 spots, but at the moment, I do think there are levels between those sides without these additions (which I'm sure will come).

All about opinions I guess, but I still think we're a long way behind. Burn wasn't a guaranteed starter for Brighton, and would either be on the bench or a LB when Dunk, Duffy, Webster were fit, and despite his strong start, is very much a bottom half defender IMO. Him and Schaar rotating with a quality addition would be fine for a top 10 charge next season, but we need better longer term. Villa obviously wanted better than Targett, which tells you something. Shelvey has been operating in the bottom half or Championship for the past 6 or 7 years, Fraser probably bottom half. I don't think we need to replace Dubs yet because there's other positions I'd go for first, and you do need a bit of familiarity, but I doubt he'd get into any of these teams mentioned, and again bottom half standard IMO. You can't rely on Wilson for a full season, and Wood is bang average and at 30 has had a career of struggling in the PL or in the Championship. There are some decent players here, and plenty to build around, but there's also some pretty average players who Howe has been getting the best out of. You can't knock the 10 wins from 14, but there were clearly a few factors that went out way in a lot of those wins such as early red cards, timing of fixtures etc.

Forget the 'big 6', our team / squad is a long way off the likes of West Ham, Wolves, Leicester, Villa. I'd still include Everton in there, and probably and one or two others, and those will all be strengthening in the summer as well, well maybe not so much Everton, but if we can finish in and amongst those crop of clubs, and away from the rest, then it will be a solid follow up season.

Yeah, I said pretty much the same in the match thread, albeit to less likes , although would likely have got lost in the thread, but yeah, totally agree. There would be a fair few expecting top 6, or at least a genuine challenge, whereas 9th/10th should be exactly where we are aiming for next season, and it will be progress, and it also shows that we absolutely do need at least 4 more Bruno level signings to be a solid 9th/10th side with no realistic relegation worries.

That would be the only option because Trippier came off after 47 vs Villa the next match, but I'm pretty sure Tripps was off before Bruno came on vs Everton - may have even been for each other?

Is this the first time Tripps and Bruno have ever been on the pitch at the same time?

It could be a blessing in disguise because it's obviously clear we need a lot of reinforcements to be where we want to be, but even from Eddie's perspective, if we did finish 9th or 10th then if we finished 9th or 10th next season, there could be a few on his back expecting a top 6th challenge, whereas if we finish 12th-14th, then 9th or so next season will be progress. I like Eddie enough not be swayed at all by how these last 3 or 4 matches go, but it could have just been papering over the cracks had we ended strongly, because realistically, there's still a lot of bang average bottom half / relegation battling players in this team.

Everton 2-1

Well that's surely game over if this is changed, and it looks like it will be. Maybe if it was Arsenal going down to 10 there would be a chance, like vs Wolves the other month, but not this way round. The Sky matches will probably end up 10-0 combined to the home side

Haha, I noticed him getting bundled to the floor after scoring, but what were the chances of it being by one of the 5 or 6 Gas who post on here, crazy (I assume that's what you mean from your post, and not post match). @North Somerset Gas

My preference is definitely Everton, Burnley, Leeds, so realistically, probably going to be hoping for Burnley to lose from now on. I wish it was the Leicester Everton match on the box.

It can quickly change of course, but with Watford coming up who are relegated and lost 11 in a row at home, and then a couple of decent home matches after that, plus just generally better players, and confidence from last week, I do think Everton will be fine, unfortunately, and it will ultimately come down Burnley or Leeds, and could just be a case of whoever picks up the odd point extra. Burnley have lost their most winnable fixture, and their best defender, and if they're losing at home to Villa, chances are they will lose to them away, as well as Spurs, so if Leeds could get a point from Chelsea, and beat Brighton, or the other way round, they could even be safe on the final day, but definitely between those two IMO. That said, Leicester have just equalised in the middle of that , but I do still stand by what I've written, haha. It really was a body blow for Burnley yesterday,

7-0 ANDERSON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

7-0 will do (goals scored). Or if Barrow can pull another one back.

Mansfield back in front, so no Elliot vs Matty semi final as it stands. Penny for Northampton's fans thoughts. 1-3 away, great result, thinking they are home and hosed, and then biting their fingers about events elsewhere. Crazy.