Paullow

Depending on how big their wins were. If we beat Leicester by 1, they'd need to beat Leicester, Villa and Southampton by a combined total of 8, 2 and 9 and so on. If they were within 4 by the time they play already relegated Southampton on the final day, I certainly wouldn't be thinking a draw secures this, as Liverpool could easily put 5+ past them, as they have done to Leeds, Bmouth and obviously Man Utd.

I'm quite relaxed about the situation. Still in a very good position - 4 points clear and both have 3 games remaining, 2 home games coming up to hopefully finish the job, and a possibility of external help if required, but if Liverpool were to win win 9 games in a row and ultimately pip us then you'd just have to say fair enough - that's pretty much half of the teams in the league and nearly 25% of the fixtures. It would obviously be a big opportunity missed if we were to slip up, and a real chance to push on in our journey, but it will still have been an amazing season regardless, and the club is clearly going in the right direction, and will continue to build and get stronger. Big mid week coming up, and hopefully we can at least match Liverpool's result.

Really good day of football on Sunday. 12pm - Coventry vs Boro - playoff Leg 1 2pm - Everton vs Man City 4.30pm - Arsenal vs Brighton 7pm - Bradford vs Carlisle - L2 playoff Leg 1 8pm (ITV4) - Espanyol vs Barcelona derby - Barca will win the the title if they win, Espanyol can move closer to getting out of the drop if they win It would have been better had Arsenal been on before City because if City win as expected then it will probably have an impact on the Arsenal players, although alternatively, if City did drop points then that will change the mood completely.

Didn't actually see this post before posting, so my inverted commas genuinely wasn't a response to this , but more just the confidence side. Going from flying to potentially 1 point from 4 and 3 defeats in a row won't be ideal.

It would be nice to see Villa win one that with them playing Liverpool next. There will still be 'something to play for' regardless, but would be nice if they didn't go into that Anfield match on the back of 3 defeats.

I was trying to work that out as well, and that was my first thought, but not sure, and it's not exactly clear, ha.

Aye, but the average crowd in the graphic was over 3,800, so definitely taken into account. They only play 11 matches at home in the league, 1 of those was at SJP where they got 24,000. 3817 x 11 = 41987 through the gates for the season. 42,000 - 24,000 = 18,000, so they would have got a total of 18,000 for the other 10 matches, which works out an average of 1,800 per game. They had a couple of evening matches at home and I'm sure they had a few matches at Druids Park as well which would have likely knocked a bit off what they usually got at KP on a Sunday afternoon. Hard to find official attendances per match, bar that one at SJP, but they have clearly taken into account the big one.

Yeah, me too. Beth got a bit of stick yesterday for saying they'd rather be in Man Utd's position, but I can see what they mean. Obviously points on the board is a big advantage, as is a superior goal difference, should that be required, and I'd no doubt be twisting if we had their fixtures saying 'Chelsea have the players to beat anyone on their day' etc. but I probably would have been a bit more confident if we had 4 matches against midtable teams going for nothing, and 3 of them at home. Odds are generally more objective than subjective so from a neutral perspective we clearly are in the better position, but their run in does look more favourable, although I guess key players missing and an FA Cup final on the horizon would probably be taken into consideration. They are generally 1/4 across the board as opposed to the quoted 1/3, and Liverpool are generally 13/8 or 7/4 instead of 2/1. https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

But I think the main point is how is that 5th spot determined for the 2024/25 season? Is it purely CL performance by teams in the 2023/24 season, does it include Europa League and Conference, or is it cumulative over a certain period, in which case a Man City triumph this season might be beneficial down the line. I'm not sure if anyone knows for sure. All we hear is 'likely to go to a PL side', but how it is likely, and could that 'likely' change to less likely based on results? Is it on the assumption that English teams will 'do enough' in the 2023/24 season. If City winning it this season increased the coefficient and thus the chances of a 5th place in 2024/25 then aye, I'd defo want them to win it, but if no real impact, then I'm not really fussed.

Crazy how in this league, as well as the two directly above them in the third tier (Northern Premier Division and Southern Premier Division) the top 2 all had the same W,D,L record and all 3 leagues were separated by goal difference.

What a game!

This is bloody tense

Leicester would have had genuine hopes to be 3 points clear of the drop with about a +14 GD advantage, so effectively 4 points, and a two game advantage heading into a tough run, but they've somehow managed to end the day 2 points adrift. Madness.

Live odds - Leeds 1/4, Leicester 2/5, Forest 11/8, Everton 7/2

Saints almost mathematically relegated. I don't think there are any more '6 pointers' down there after this, so won't be 100% confirmed, but just a matter of time now.

Game on now mind.

If we have a +6 GD lead over Liverpool going into that final weekend, it's NOT absolutely worth a point. Liverpool have won 9-0, 7-0 and 6-1 this season, and they could easily get 4 or 5 against this lot, so a 1 or 2-0 defeat to Chelsea and that could easily be overturned. We have to be looking at 7 points instead of 6.

Absolute nightmare day for Leicester thus far. Ship 5 in a winnable match, Everton get a shock rare away win, and Forest already 2 up.

Such a big match this one.

What are you hoping for in the next match? I like Forest so hope they win, but from a more neutral perspective, if Southampton won then they would be right back in the mix, albeit still a couple of tough matches to come. I guess it might be better for the final match of the season as well if they are still in contention against Liverpool, even from a goal difference perspective.

Assuming Sanchez is no longer considered good enough for how they play, surely a new keeper will be high up Brighton's shopping list in the summer.

Just as well they got that 4th as it would have been a bit tense here if not. Here, as in the match, not this board.

4 shots on target, 4 goals. It was 3 goals from 2 shots on target a few mins ago.

I asked on the Top 4 thread, but no one responded, apart from 2.8m or so, is there any difference in terms of finishing 5th or 6th regarding where you enter Europe?

7th place would still be to play for, whatever Brighton do, if they avoid defeat against Spurs on Saturday. Similar to us, Villa haven't played in Europe at all since 2010/11 and that was just a failed playoff attempt, and not properly since 2008, so their fans would be up for finishing 7th, and Emery would surely want some form of Europe, even if it was the lowest level of it.