Keegans Export

Me presumably? That was based on Everton's second deduction, the justification of which was published. 2pts for the breach, +3pts for a "substantial breach" of £16m. If we really are £30m over then is there not logic in what I suggested that 5-7pts is possible?

Especially as, if you look at our sellable players, Almiron and Bruno are at the Copa America, Gordon & Trippier are at the Euros, Minteh is apparently on holiday. We presumably knew about all of those, so why are we apparently scrabbling about with a day or two left?

This is what I'm trying to work out. How far out could those estimates have been? We were already out of Europe, out of the CL race. The only major variable at that point would have been prize money which is £3m or so per place I think? We knew at that point that 6th was about as good as we could have hoped for and we finished 7th. My best guess is that we thought about selling someone in January but couldn't because the squad was already decimated. Then we assumed we could shift someone in the summer before the deadline and now it seems we can't. I hope all this talk about hawking Gordon around in a desperate attempt to get some cash in is part of some clever plan/ruse because if we've really allowed ourselves to get into this position, complain about the PSR rules all you like, that's a fuck-up on our part somewhere along the line.

Just my personal thought - Liverpool enquire about the availability of AG. We responded with a high figure. We leak the story as more evidence of PSR just resulting in the "big six" praying on the rest, knowing "the rules" make them vulnerable. Same with Chelsea/Isak. It could also be a softening-the-blow move when we sell Minteh, "Well, at least it wasn't Isak, Gordon etc" The alternative is that we are trying to flog a major asset and this is us just trying to drum up interest. That doesn't bare thinking about.

If we sell Minteh for £30m, that'll be around £25m "profit". You reckon we're getting £25m for any of those three?

Kudus and Madueke went for £40m and £30m respectively so that would suggest £30-40m is probably about the going rate.

The baseline has been set at 3pts deduction for FFP breach. Everton were going to have another 2pts added for a "substantial" breach of £16m. Assuming reports are correct that we're somewhere between that and £30m over, you're looking at 5pts minimum, maybe up to 7pts. You're willing to throw away potentially 10% of what we'd need points-wise for a top 4/5 finish for a player we wanted to "have a look at in preseason"? I agree with everything here, except maybe the last part which I think isn't a black and white issue. Yes, it looks like we're selling him now and presumably for a cut-price fee because of the risk of points deductions but if we imagine a scenario where our PSR calculations were bang on the money, we don't need to sell anyone before 1st July - if Brighton, Everton, Lyon offer £40m for him next month, are we turning that down? There was talk of Liverpool eyeing up a £40m deal but nothing has materialised there (so far, admittedly). No top CL club has come sniffing around even though we're supposedly actively trying to shift him. Olise went for £55m ish? Williams is available for a similar amount.

Such as....?

Everton was going to be 3pts plus 2pts for a "significant breach" of £16m

Maybe nobody wants those players at the sort of fee we'd need to bridge the gap? If we're £30m short, who are you selling and how much for?

Ashworth left in February didn't he?

It was going to be 5pts - 3pts for breaching, then another 2pts because it was "significantly" over the threshold. They dropped it down on the basis that they had already had points deducted, has lost income from a Russian sponsorship deal & admitted guilt.

I believe Everton's second points deduction (2pts) was relating to the period ending June 2023 (22/23 season) and was applied in the 23/24 season. That would suggest that if we were over the limit this season (23/24), it'd be applied in the coming season (24/25) Edit - This is the article I'm using as a source

Didn't they change that this season to make sure any punishment was dished out the season after the breach? That's why Everton ended up with two deductions in one season.

If we were/are £30m short, why did we even bother thinking about making any moves in January? The only potential moves out discussed were Trippier and Miggy and they would have been <£15m each, if we'd then gone on to sign someone, even accounting for amortisation that's still going to add a few million to the books. Wouldn't be shocked if we are short, but I'd be very surprised and a little disappointed if we've miscalculated by that much.

It could probably be used as mitigation in a PSR breach though? Let's say Minteh to Lyon is all but agreed, £40m fee, wages etc. His medical is booked for Monday because he is away & he fails it, we miss the PSR target by £10m or so. Especially as a medical isn't really a "pass or fail" thing either, unless his leg is hanging off or he's missing a ventricle, it's a judgement call on the part of the buying club. We might think he's fine, the buying club may not.

I don't think anybody really knows, outside the club at least. The Athletic article on the PSR deadline says; "open to sales" is an interesting choice of phrase, it doesn't suggest a need to sell.

It's a garbage article. The first part says we're going to banish him to the youth team, then a few paragraphs down it says that Howe will have a look at him in training if he ends up staying.

I don't think that's correct. They did move their accounting period to 30th June, but PSR is going to be assessed 1st July to 30th June regardless. We already know that clubs profit & loss is not the same as their PSR calculation. The club's accounts for P&L purposes can start/end whenever they like but 30th June is the cut-off for the PSR calculation. Looking at Companies House, every club I looked at originally had accounts ending 31st May and shifted it to 30th June at some point in the last five years or so. That suggests a simple tidying up exercise. Not a single one went beyond 30th June.

Doesn't make a difference when our accounting period is, the PL assess the PSR figures from 1st July to 30th June. Does that "financial expert" think avoiding a PSR breach is as simple as going "Oh no, our accounting period runs until the end of July"...

It says that Nice & Girona are being run as a "blind trust" which basically means being run completely independently of Man Utd and Man City respectively. Although they do literally have the same owners so it's not exactly the same. But that doesn't fit the "Big, bad Newcastle out to ruin football" narrative...

It's the Cabaye to Arsenal story. No idea if it was ever confirmed or not but it was said that they had the Arsenal negotiator on speaker who said our asking price was "too much for a back-up midfielder". We set the release clause at a price a Man City or Real Madrid could have afforded to pay if they really wanted him. They (and others) have spent that on players before and they will do again.

Reading that Tweet from Fab - assuming it's from Minteh's agent, I think either; Everton have agreed terms but they want to flush out interest from other PL clubs Another team (Lyon?) have agreed terms but Minteh would rather go to Everton/other PL team The club (and Everton) are making this look like Minteh being desperate to join EFC rather than this purely being a PSR workaround

Which deals haven't been savvy? We pounced for Gordon when Everton were desperate for cash, now £45m looks like a bargain. Kelly has joined on a free. DCL we've tracked for 2 years, now we seem to be making a move as he reaches the last year on his contract.