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We've played the dross - now it gets hard


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Using Mike Wrays wonderful spreadsheet you can calculate how tough the opposition is you've faced so far ... and to come

 

It shows that Citeh & the Smogs opponents so far this season have an AVERAGE of 15.8 points

 

We are at the other end of the table - our opponents to date have an average of 11.5 points - which is almost 2 points less than the next easiest run so far which is Arsenal

 

Our opponents to come have an average of 15.68 points = 1.5 points a game better than the dross we've played to date

 

 

 

 

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Been saying this for a while. It's far too early for the manager or players to be congratulating themselves.

 

On paper things look good but if you don't read them in context, you're setting yourself up for a fall. I think it's been a distinctly average start to the season, given the opposition we've played. Good wins against Tottenham and Everton have been cancelled out by poor defeats to Reading and Derby. We need to raise our game, hopefully in time the players will gel together and that will come.

 

Looking at the fixture list, January doesn't look good. From late December to late January we face away games at Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal, with a home game against Man City thrown in for good measure. I think some people take away games against teams like Reading and even Man City for granted, these games are an opportunity to go for the points and when we miss out, we put ourselves under pressure in these games. The key to getting into Europe will probably be how we play against the poorer teams, not the top teams. When Everton finished 4th they were nothing special, they just kept winning their 'easier' fixtures. You don't actually have to be better than a top 4 side to pip them to 4th, you just have to be more consistent at picking up the 'easier' points.

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Interesting to note 'how' Everton won those easier games that season too. Wasnt much different in style to what Sam is aiming at atm.

 

Just remarking on that point, not arguing for it before anyone starts.

 

 

 

I think there are many different ways to play successful football and to finish top 4, I made this point in another thread that for every Everton or Osasuna there is a Villarreal, Sevilla or Newcastle (under Robson) who punch above their weight and get top 4 by playing more open, attacking football. We certainly can do it the Allardyce way, he got reasonably close with Bolton.

 

I think there is a real fear factor when it comes to the top 4, because people think we are nowhere near the quality of teams like Liverpool so we can't hope to compete. But we are, or should be, better than most of the teams in the league, and beating those teams weaker than us home and away will put us right up close to teams like Liverpool, even if they destroy us at Anfield. This is why losing to Reading and Derby hurts a lot more than losing to Man Utd or Liverpool, because you know you have missed a big opportunity.

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Been saying this for a while. It's far too early for the manager or players to be congratulating themselves.

 

On paper things look good but if you don't read them in context, you're setting yourself up for a fall. I think it's been a distinctly average start to the season, given the opposition we've played. Good wins against Tottenham and Everton have been cancelled out by poor defeats to Reading and Derby. We need to raise our game, hopefully in time the players will gel together and that will come.

 

Looking at the fixture list, January doesn't look good. From late December to late January we face away games at Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal, with a home game against Man City thrown in for good measure. I think some people take away games against teams like Reading and even Man City for granted, these games are an opportunity to go for the points and when we miss out, we put ourselves under pressure in these games. The key to getting into Europe will probably be how we play against the poorer teams, not the top teams. When Everton finished 4th they were nothing special, they just kept winning their 'easier' fixtures. You don't actually have to be better than a top 4 side to pip them to 4th, you just have to be more consistent at picking up the 'easier' points.

 

aye, but we've been practising playing for 0-0 draws

 

 

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Well considering we didnt lose to any of the top 4 last season it doesnt matter a fuck!To be honest as well Im not shivering in my boots looking at the way Liverpool are playing at the mo either,I can see Mickey scoring against them!

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I think we have an easy run still tbh. Our home games are:

 

Portsmouth

Liverpool

Arsenal

Derby

Birmingham

 

All of those games above are winable considering we are strong at home. The only teams i see having a chance of winning are Liverpool and Arsenal, we beat Liverpool at home twice in the last 3 seasons, we also beat Arsenal aswell, i see no problems there tbh, as for away games:

 

Sunderland

Blackburn

Fulham

Wigan

 

Again all winnable, when was the last time we lost at Blackburn?

 

Its up to Sam how we do, he needs to sort out our away form and there are 3 perfect away games to do it in.

 

 

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Our away form is shit. But our home form is near impeccable. It was a shocking loss and performance at Reading but i'm still happy. This season was always going to be a learning curve and we were always going to be only 'there or thereabouts', my opinion has hardly swayed whatsoever since about June. Nothing's changed just cos we've lost to Reading.

 

If we can muster say only 5 away victories this season, yet win 12 or 13 at home (consequently finishing about 8th), i'd say that'd be a decent start to Allardyce's reign.

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everyones talking about the rubbish teams as the ones we need to win- i disagree. we need to beat the likes of man city, spurs, everton, villa, blackburn, pompey, cos they are the ones that i think will be challenging us for the 5th-8th ish positions. weve beaten spurs and everton (good) lost to man city (very bad) and drawn to villa, which is annoying.  

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We have had a favourable start to the season and picked up some points. It is disappointing to think off the points we have lost to Boro, Villa, Derby and Reading in particular. Only Man City have beaten us soundly.

 

It gets tougher from now on and the next few weeks should give us an idea of where we will end up in the league. At home I am confident against most teams, we do seem to have made St James' a bit of a hard trek for teams this season. If we can keep the home form going and pick up a few more wins on the road and beat teams like Sunderland and Brum we should find ourselves well placed come the end of the season.

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Been saying this for a while. It's far too early for the manager or players to be congratulating themselves.

 

On paper things look good but if you don't read them in context, you're setting yourself up for a fall. I think it's been a distinctly average start to the season, given the opposition we've played. Good wins against Tottenham and Everton have been cancelled out by poor defeats to Reading and Derby. We need to raise our game, hopefully in time the players will gel together and that will come.

 

Looking at the fixture list, January doesn't look good. From late December to late January we face away games at Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal, with a home game against Man City thrown in for good measure. I think some people take away games against teams like Reading and even Man City for granted, these games are an opportunity to go for the points and when we miss out, we put ourselves under pressure in these games. The key to getting into Europe will probably be how we play against the poorer teams, not the top teams. When Everton finished 4th they were nothing special, they just kept winning their 'easier' fixtures. You don't actually have to be better than a top 4 side to pip them to 4th, you just have to be more consistent at picking up the 'easier' points.

 

Says it all I reckon - there's going to be some unhappy weel-ends in store...

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Been saying this for a while. It's far too early for the manager or players to be congratulating themselves.

 

On paper things look good but if you don't read them in context, you're setting yourself up for a fall. I think it's been a distinctly average start to the season, given the opposition we've played. Good wins against Tottenham and Everton have been cancelled out by poor defeats to Reading and Derby. We need to raise our game, hopefully in time the players will gel together and that will come.

 

Looking at the fixture list, January doesn't look good. From late December to late January we face away games at Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal, with a home game against Man City thrown in for good measure. I think some people take away games against teams like Reading and even Man City for granted, these games are an opportunity to go for the points and when we miss out, we put ourselves under pressure in these games. The key to getting into Europe will probably be how we play against the poorer teams, not the top teams. When Everton finished 4th they were nothing special, they just kept winning their 'easier' fixtures. You don't actually have to be better than a top 4 side to pip them to 4th, you just have to be more consistent at picking up the 'easier' points.

 

Says it all I reckon - there's going to be some unhappy weel-ends in store...

 

To be fair as long as we balance out top 10 by the end of the season we have no right to complain. Even with a few additions in Jan we could push ourselves top 8.

 

Sam needs time and the early moves are in the right direction. Now he needs to learn from his mistakes against Derby, Reading and Man City and bring the side on as a whole.

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I think we have an easy run still tbh. Our home games are:

 

Portsmouth

Liverpool

Arsenal

Derby

Birmingham

 

All of those games above are winable considering we are strong at home. The only teams i see having a chance of winning are Liverpool and Arsenal, we beat Liverpool at home twice in the last 3 seasons, we also beat Arsenal aswell, i see no problems there tbh, as for away games:

 

Sunderland

Blackburn

Fulham

Wigan

 

Again all winnable, when was the last time we lost at Blackburn?

 

Its up to Sam how we do, he needs to sort out our away form and there are 3 perfect away games to do it in.

 

 

 

Cannot believe you think these fixtures are , quote, 'an easy run'....

On our current away form, I would doubt we are capable of getting any sort of result at Blackburn, who could well beat us heavily ; the mackems will be well up for this game - its their Cup Final this season - and if we perform anything like as badly as at Reading, Derby, or Man City, we will lose.

Of the other away games, only Fulham looks a place where we might get something - Wigan's physical approach will not be to our defence's liking and a point is the most likely outcome.

 

We will not find it easy to beat Pompey or Liverpool at SJP, and you seem to have forgotten what happened against Brum last year...!! As for Arsenal, it will be a huge shock if we beat them - they are the best side in the league this year and have already beaten us easily with a team basically made up of kids..

 

My estimate of points , being as realistic as possible, from the fixtures you mention are 7 from the homw games and 4 from the away ones - that gives us 11 from possible 27, and that is fairly optimistic on our current away form. Our home form is OK, but I don't think we would have found it as easy to beat Spurs had they not been in the middle of a managerial crisis.

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Looking at our squad it is an easy run, on paper its an easy run, like i said in my post its up to the manager how we do as we certainly  have the squad to win all bar 2 of those games. I know we wont but we COULD.

 

Im not taking form into account really thats why i said its up to Sam how we do.

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I just watched the replay of the Reading game on Setanta and we just looked bored.  I didn't see any urgency in our attacking or movement on the ball/off the ball.  Granted, it was probably because we didn't have proper wingers out there, but going into Scumderland might just kickstart our away form blues.  We'll have to go in there looking to batter the cunts, then we'll hopefully carry that attitude into other away matches. 

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Only a few players know the rivalry though, the defence doesnt which is why i think Taylor is a CERT to start.

 

True, but I imagine most of our back line has experienced an Derby at some point in their career.  Also, the atmosphere will be

quite canny and will hopefully make them raise their game. 

 

 

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The fact we have hard matches coming up, makes the stupid losses away from home even worse. If results go as expected against the big boys, we won't be looking too good. As it is "we are having our best ever start" and while the away results are shite, some people are glossing over it with our home matches.

 

Yep. Not looking forward to scum away either, we've been shite on the road, and they'll be up for it. Also think Jones is gonna cause us some problems, nufc style.

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