Alan Shearer contract latest: long gone

[Incognito]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?

 

Success is the key here,as it is with any club.

 

What makes our club slightly different to most others is the loyal support,which come hell or high water will bring in revenue either through attendances or merchandise.Even success in the Championship would count,and that's why our club,IMO,is an attractive proposition to potential buyers.

[Parky]

I personally wouldn't want a consortium dumb enough to pay 100m. If one actually exists that is and  isn't pure fiction.

[Skirge]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?

 

The buzz of owning a club?

Well I guess they all think they can make it a success and therefore make money, but at least FS has a love for the club and knows whats involved in running and owning a club.

[Incognito]

I personally wouldn't want a consortium dumb enough to pay 100m. If one actually exists that is and  isn't pure fiction.

 

I personally would rather have anyone than this cunt who owns us now.

[Teasy]

I agree we're not worth that purely in business terms I didn't claim we were.  I'm talking about what we're worth in the current market based on what people pay for Football clubs (especially what people were willing to pay for us not 6 months ago).

 

Most clubs bought these days aren't worth half what people pay for them in real business terms, most don't make money and in fact are insolvent.  Its not just profit people are interested in but also the status of owning a Football club.  In pure business terms we weren't worth £200m 6 months ago, but people were willing to pay more then that.  £80-£90m seems reasonable in the current market, like I said £100m is on the high side but not as bonkers as some think IMO.  It'll probably go for £90m or something.

 

By the way we do have a guarentee of reducing the wage bill, we're guarenteed to chop £15m off it in July.  While nothing more then that can be guarenteed there are certain players on high wages who will make sure they leave and have plenty of clubs interested.  We'd only need to sell 4 or 5 of them to remove the other £15m+.

 

 

[Teasy]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?

 

Ask Shepherd and the Hall's, they made nearly £200m.

[Keefaz]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?

 

Ask Shepherd and the Hall's, they made nearly £200m.

 

Aye, but only by putting the club in massive debt and then flogging it to a mental. Can lightning strike twice?

[Slugsy]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

That doesn't mean they will pay £100m, they have only said they are interested and any offer will be subject to due diligence.

 

I agree that the level of demand or competitve tension will impact on value and the perceived resale value but I'd like to hear how people are coming up with their valuations which have no actual basis at present other than Mike Ashley paid £x for it and Mike Ashley wants £x for it - that doesn't mean it's worth that.

 

The thing is that there is no real valuation model for a football club. A lot of them are loss making, have negative net worth and would be insolvent if not for the owner propping them up. So you can't apply things like PE ratios or balance sheet valuations, they just don't work.

 

A lot depends on the buyer's motives. If the buyer is looking at it in some sort of business context then all he can do is look at what's there and make a judgement call on it. A buyer has to assume that he is going to find a way to get it back into the Premiership, he has to factor in that the club will need quite a bit of further funding to get there. He also has to look at the assets the club has - stadium, training ground etc are all fit for purpose for a very high level of football indeed, so no further investment is needed there. And then you would have to form a view of what it might be worth if you succeed. On the other hand if the buyer is a billionaire looking for some fun (been there before I think) then the valuation becomes even more random.

 

I agree with a lot of that, but disagree that you form a valuation based on what you could do - that is a classic situation where you are giving the Vendor value for something you are intending to do, which I would strongly advise against.  But then again, if the buyer really wants it, if the Vendor is in a strong position and there is a competitive situation, that value may be given.

 

I do appreciate that certain valuation models don't fit a football club and probably was being a bit pedentic to get my point across, what will be more important as you say is the buyer motives and how also they are funding the transaction because if they require bank funding, valuation models will apply as to the ability of the business to service a level of debt, which granted while we were in the premiership was better but is now much more limited.

 

Billionnaire buyers do tend to screw these things up of course and it does become totally random, but if I'm looking at it as an acquisition with my head, I wouldn't be valuing the business at £100m - others who have the cash may do and good luck to them, then again not many people make money out of football clubs.

 

[Teasy]

Is it possible to make money from NUFC? If not, then what motive would a potential buyer have for putting in an offer for the club?

 

Ask Shepherd and the Hall's, they made nearly £200m.

 

Aye, but only by putting the club in massive debt and then flogging it to a mental. Can lightning strike twice?

 

A mental , I like it.

 

I didn't mean the total Ashley paid including the debt by the way, just the £134 they got for the club as well as all the money they'd taken in wages and share dividends.

[Slugsy]

I agree we're not worth that purely in business terms I didn't claim we were.  I'm talking about what we're worth in the current market based on what people pay for Football clubs (especially what people were willing to pay for us not 6 months ago).

 

Most clubs bought these days aren't worth half what people pay for them in real business terms, most don't make money and in fact are insolvent.  Its not just profit people are interested in but also the status of owning a Football club.  In pure business terms we weren't worth £200m 6 months ago, but people were willing to pay more then that.  £80-£90m seems reasonable in the current market, like I said £100m is on the high side but not as bonkers as some think IMO.  It'll probably go for £90m or something.

 

By the way we do have a guarentee of reducing the wage bill, we're guarenteed to chop £15m off it in July.  While nothing more then that can be guarenteed there are certain players on high wages who will make sure they leave and have plenty of clubs interested.  We'd only need to sell 4 or 5 of them to remove the other £15m+.

 

 

 

Fair enough, I was being a bit pedantic trying to get my point across, in the end, its only worth as much as someone is willing to pay and if that's £100m then good luck to them, as I said, I don't think its worth that in the current climate and current situation the club is in but if others are willing to pay that then good luck to them, juts hope they have enough left to get us back in the prem!

[Parky]

I sometimes wonder if the 100m tag is a ploy not to sell the club.

[quayside]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

That doesn't mean they will pay £100m, they have only said they are interested and any offer will be subject to due diligence.

 

I agree that the level of demand or competitve tension will impact on value and the perceived resale value but I'd like to hear how people are coming up with their valuations which have no actual basis at present other than Mike Ashley paid £x for it and Mike Ashley wants £x for it - that doesn't mean it's worth that.

 

The thing is that there is no real valuation model for a football club. A lot of them are loss making, have negative net worth and would be insolvent if not for the owner propping them up. So you can't apply things like PE ratios or balance sheet valuations, they just don't work.

 

A lot depends on the buyer's motives. If the buyer is looking at it in some sort of business context then all he can do is look at what's there and make a judgement call on it. A buyer has to assume that he is going to find a way to get it back into the Premiership, he has to factor in that the club will need quite a bit of further funding to get there. He also has to look at the assets the club has - stadium, training ground etc are all fit for purpose for a very high level of football indeed, so no further investment is needed there. And then you would have to form a view of what it might be worth if you succeed. On the other hand if the buyer is a billionaire looking for some fun (been there before I think) then the valuation becomes even more random.

 

I agree with a lot of that, but disagree that you form a valuation based on what you could do - that is a classic situation where you are giving the Vendor value for something you are intending to do, which I would strongly advise against.  But then again, if the buyer really wants it, if the Vendor is in a strong position and there is a competitive situation, that value may be given.

 

I do appreciate that certain valuation models don't fit a football club and probably was being a bit pedentic to get my point across, what will be more important as you say is the buyer motives and how also they are funding the transaction because if they require bank funding, valuation models will apply as to the ability of the business to service a level of debt, which granted while we were in the premiership was better but is now much more limited.

 

Billionnaire buyers do tend to screw these things up of course and it does become totally random, but if I'm looking at it as an acquisition with my head, I wouldn't be valuing the business at £100m - others who have the cash may do and good luck to them, then again not many people make money out of football clubs.

 

 

Understand your thinking on the valuation although I wasn't so much saying that you would give value for what you intend to do - more that you look at your percentage gain on the buying price assuming you succeed in reinstating the club into a high performing Premiership outfit again.

 

Just on the point of the stadium, what is already in place at SJP is a substantial plus point. It is worth bearing in mind that if, for example, someone wanted to buy Everton and move it forward you obviously get a highly placed Premiership club but their stadium is from another era. You would have to include a substantial investment in your evaluation. I'm told that it would cost £40 million to turn Goodison into a 50,000 seater (and I don't know if that would include modernisation costs) and £150 million to build a completely new stadium.

 

 

[Teasy]

I sometimes wonder if the 100m tag is a ploy not to sell the club.

 

No one was demanding that he leave this time so why pretend he wants to sell?

[Neil]

Nobody in their right mind buys a CCC club for 100m.

 

For most Championship clubs that would be true.  Most of them don't have a massive stadium, massive fan base and state of the art facilities.

 

Fancy a side bet on the eventual selling price?

 

Only if we include the debt in the price   Like I said 100m with Ashley's loan removed is an acceptable price IMO.  But obviously nobody's going to pay 100m and 100m+ loan to Ashley.

 

I'd love to hear the actual basis for your valuation? Walk me through the numbers?

 

Based on a decreased revenue from £100m to £55m and a Premiership valuation of between £200m to £250m and the fact he's not going to accept much less then £100m for a club he's effectively paid nearly £250m for.

 

The fact that four consortiums are interested at £100 million means in itself that the club hasn't been overvalued.

 

As with all assets, the price depends on the level of demand and the perceived resale value down the line. All highly artificial.

 

That doesn't mean they will pay £100m, they have only said they are interested and any offer will be subject to due diligence.

 

I agree that the level of demand or competitve tension will impact on value and the perceived resale value but I'd like to hear how people are coming up with their valuations which have no actual basis at present other than Mike Ashley paid £x for it and Mike Ashley wants £x for it - that doesn't mean it's worth that.

 

The thing is that there is no real valuation model for a football club. A lot of them are loss making, have negative net worth and would be insolvent if not for the owner propping them up. So you can't apply things like PE ratios or balance sheet valuations, they just don't work.

 

A lot depends on the buyer's motives. If the buyer is looking at it in some sort of business context then all he can do is look at what's there and make a judgement call on it. A buyer has to assume that he is going to find a way to get it back into the Premiership, he has to factor in that the club will need quite a bit of further funding to get there. He also has to look at the assets the club has - stadium, training ground etc are all fit for purpose for a very high level of football indeed, so no further investment is needed there. And then you would have to form a view of what it might be worth if you succeed. On the other hand if the buyer is a billionaire looking for some fun (been there before I think) then the valuation becomes even more random.

 

I agree with a lot of that, but disagree that you form a valuation based on what you could do - that is a classic situation where you are giving the Vendor value for something you are intending to do, which I would strongly advise against.  But then again, if the buyer really wants it, if the Vendor is in a strong position and there is a competitive situation, that value may be given.

 

I do appreciate that certain valuation models don't fit a football club and probably was being a bit pedentic to get my point across, what will be more important as you say is the buyer motives and how also they are funding the transaction because if they require bank funding, valuation models will apply as to the ability of the business to service a level of debt, which granted while we were in the premiership was better but is now much more limited.

 

Billionnaire buyers do tend to screw these things up of course and it does become totally random, but if I'm looking at it as an acquisition with my head, I wouldn't be valuing the business at £100m - others who have the cash may do and good luck to them, then again not many people make money out of football clubs.

 

 

Understand your thinking on the valuation although I wasn't so much saying that you would give value for what you intend to do - more that you look at your percentage gain on the buying price assuming you succeed in reinstating the club into a high performing Premiership outfit again.

 

Just on the point of the stadium, what is already in place at SJP is a substantial plus point. It is worth bearing in mind that if, for example, someone wanted to buy Everton and move it forward you obviously get a highly placed Premiership club but their stadium is from another era. You would have to include a substantial investment in your evaluation. I'm told that it would cost £40 million to turn Goodison into a 50,000 seater (and I don't know if that would include modernisation costs) and £150 million to build a completely new stadium.

 

 

 

Without diverting the thread too much, our stadium issue is probably the main reason someone wouldn't invest. Goodison is ancient, and there's no chance of modernising it. As you may well have heard we're looking to move... but it's all got very complicated. At first the initial sum wouldn't be much... part of a project involving Tesco etc, but now I'd imagine the projected figures will be spiralling. Enquiries here there and everywhere as well.

 

So yeah, I agree that the stadium would have to be a paramount part of anyone's financial evaluation.

[Parky]

The stadium is only worth what revenue it generates and that is dependent on what is happening on the pitch.

[Teasy]

The stadium is only worth what revenue it generates and that is dependent on what is happening on the pitch.

 

Its only partially dependent on what happens on the pitch at this club like.  I mean we've been getting sell outs for seasons despite doing poorly in the Premiership and had an average attendance of 50,000 last season when we got relegated.  I can still see us getting over 40,000 in the Championship if Shearer gets a long term deal, though no doubt that would dwindle over time if we stayed down for too long.

[quayside]

The stadium is only worth what revenue it generates and that is dependent on what is happening on the pitch.

 

But if you are buying the club you would only do so in the expectation that you can deliver success on the pitch - hard as it is to believe I think even Ashley assumed that he would get there eventually. To have the infrastructure already in place for a successful club is a big plus. 

[Parky]

The infrastructure didn't stop us getting relegated.

[TRon]

I personally wouldn't want a consortium dumb enough to pay 100m. If one actually exists that is and  isn't pure fiction.

 

I personally would rather have anyone than this cunt who owns us now.

 

End of discussion.

[WarrenBartonCentrePartin]

whats the ronny's take on it all?  Can't find anything on their site.

[afar]

Oh well at least some positive noises if nothing else, experience has taught us not to get our hopes up and believe every word said but perhaps just perhaps by the end of the month we will be ready to begin planning for next season. Fingers and toes firmly crossed here.

[Teasy]

The infrastructure didn't stop us getting relegated.

 

Completely nowt to do with what quayside said that like.

[Parky]

The infrastructure didn't stop us getting relegated.

 

Completely nowt to do with what quayside said that like.

 

Yeah cause I'm not allowed to take it sideways. 

 

I'll be right about everything ftr.

 

The price.

 

The lack of buyers.

 

and all the other shit that will inevitably follow...

[quayside]

The stadium is only worth what revenue it generates and that is dependent on what is happening on the pitch.

 

But if you are buying the club you would only do so in the expectation that you can deliver success on the pitch - hard as it is to believe I think even Ashley assumed that he would get there eventually. To have the infrastructure already in place for a successful club is a big plus. 

 

The infrastructure didn't stop us getting relegated.

 

I didn't say it did.

Read my post - I said if you buy the club you would do so expecting to deliver success on the pitch. And to have the stadium already in place when that success occurs is a big plus.

[Teasy]

The infrastructure didn't stop us getting relegated.

 

Completely nowt to do with what quayside said that like.

 

Yeah cause I'm not allowed to take it sideways. 

 

I'll be right about everything ftr.

 

The price.

 

The lack of buyers.

 

and all the other shit that will inevitably follow...

 

Wasn't sideways, it was a complete change of subject.

 

Good luck with being right about everything though