RIP sale thread.

[SteveMc]

Luke Edwards on his blog is saying that there still haven't been any bids, as of this afternoon.  he also says that the Omani rumour is more likely to be true than the average publicity seeking Nathaniel type as it came from a tip off outside ofthe actual proposed bidders.  He does though state that it is speculation at the minute.

[David Icke - Son of God]

We probably wont see any real movement until the end of the week.

[Dave]

We probably wont see any real movement until the end of the week.

 

Why so soon?

[David Icke - Son of God]

We probably wont see any real movement until the end of the week.

 

Why so soon?

 

Just a gut feeling. Obviously I don't mean club handed over lock, stock and barrel to a new owner by the end of the week but if these rumours are spot on i'd imagine the wheels would be in motion by Friday/Saturday.

 

There is every chance these rumours aren't true though, so don't quote me on this.

[afar]

There still seems to be some debate over whether Ashley is going to write off the £100 the club owes him.  The club can only be worth between £80m to £100m and that's what he is asking for it, so it seems obvious to me that he must be writing off the debt.

 

Unless he's hoping to get a buyer as naive as himself who wouldn't bother to carry out due diligence and get caught with the debt exactly as he did. 

 

Nobody in their right mind would pay 100 million for a championship club with 100 million in debted to the previous owner. He basically has to absorb that "loan" he made to the club and take the 150 million loss he's made in his two year association with NUFC.

 

What's telling in that phrase which is quoted for the Times interview is that he says he's lost his money, he clearly is writing it off, even he's not stupid enough to think he'll get a buyer for the club without doing so.

 

surely it isnt just the sale value of the club and the debt to Ashley a new buyer would have to consider, its also the company's liabilities and assets? The key thing that we all know about is the huge financial albatross of the players contracts that need to be honoured. As we all know that this is for huge amounts of money for very little assets those players themselves cant be disposed of without writing off huge sums of money. Although the assets of the players are considered theyre surely not in relation to their true worth, as most arent worth anything like what was paid for them, or for what they are being paid.

 

I would guess you would have to write off at least another £50m to clear out the dross.

 

Hence time for Ashley to cut his losses and do a runner.

 

Not sure I understand any of that logic tbh. It looks like he wants 100million for a debt free club. Last year our revenue was 100 million, we've lost 34million in TV money plus probably a further 10million from other revenue, ie gates, corporate, advertising and merchandise. So that would leave us with a revenue of around 56 million.

 

We are therefore looking to make savings of around 44million to make up that deficet. The players that are out of contract in the summer equate to around 14 million in wages. Defecit down to 30 million. I think the players wages are around 64million, take the 14million off that and we are left with 50million. Say the relegation clause (which I'm sure they all have, despite what is said in the press) is around 25%, then we can take another 12.5million off that 30 million deficit to get to 17.5million.

 

Say we sell Geremi, Barton, Jonas, Colo, Smith and Martins for a combined 18million, which wipes out the deficit but also we'll save around 15million in wages. Leaving us with around 15.5 million for replacing the players lost and paying their wages. I don't think that's enough so I would expect the new owners to put in a further 20million to finance recruitment and pay the wages.

 

So if any new prospective owner is looking to put in less that 20 million beyond their original investment, then we need to be extremely suspicious of them. 50 million is a little unrealistic, unless they want to hang on to the deadwood at the club, the ones I mention should be the easiest to get rid of.

[Dave]

There's at least one player signed under Ashley who definitely doesn't have a relegation clause, so there are probably more.

 

Not going to say who btw, but trust me. Legit info.

[afar]

Luke Edwards on his blog is saying that there still haven't been any bids, as of this afternoon.  he also says that the Omani rumour is more likely to be true than the average publicity seeking Nathaniel type as it came from a tip off outside ofthe actual proposed bidders.  He does though state that it is speculation at the minute.

 

I'm absoulutely certain we'll basically see 2 to 3 months of no progress whatsover, Ashley will still be the owner come the start of the season and JFK will be leading a under prepared, thread bare squad for the first game of the season away to Scunthrope.

[Kimbo]

This middle east stuff is all bollocks, we hear it every time and none of them ever make a bid.

[Shearergol]

Luke Edwards on his blog is saying that there still haven't been any bids, as of this afternoon.  he also says that the Omani rumour is more likely to be true than the average publicity seeking Nathaniel type as it came from a tip off outside ofthe actual proposed bidders.  He does though state that it is speculation at the minute.

 

I'm absoulutely certain we'll basically see 2 to 3 months of no progress whatsover, Ashley will still be the owner come the start of the season and JFK will be leading a under prepared, thread bare squad for the first game of the season away to Scunthrope.

 

*Scunthorpe

[Dave]

Middle East story is gathering pace then.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/jun/01/newcastle-takeover-alan-shearer

Omani consortium interested in Newcastle takeover

 

• UK-based group also considering making offer

• Decision on Shearer 'by the end of the week'

 

Louise Taylor

 

As an Omani consortium eyes Newcastle United, Alan Shearer's future remains opaque. Talks continue between the club and their former striker over whether he will become their long-term manager.

 

With the newly relegated club up for sale at £100m, interest from wealthy investors in Muscat in a possible takeover at St James' Park swirled around Tyneside. A UK-based investment group is also contemplating an offer, but, for the moment at least, Mike Ashley is still the owner of a club which may yet take some weeks, if not months, to sell and currently lacks a manager.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/leagues/premierleague/newcastle/5423105/Middle-East-consortium-emerges-as-favourites-to-buy-Newcastle-United.html

Middle East consortium emerges as favourites to buy Newcastle United

 

A consortium of Middle Eastern businessmen has emerged as the front-runners to buy Newcastle United.

 

By Rob Stewart

 

The Omani group has expressed an interest in buying the St James' Park club from Mike Ashley.

 

The organisation from Oman is said to have already demonstrated it has the money to take the club of Ashley's hands and plan to invest hundreds of millions of pounds into the newly-relegated Championship club.

 

A consortium based in Britain is also believed to have entered the running to buy Newcastle from the sport retail tycoon.

 

Ashley who bought the club for £134 million two years ago is ready to sell the club for £100 million.

 

Newcastle supporters are hoping that their own loyalty to the club will help attract potential buyers.

[Pilko]

What do you think of it Dave? How much truth do you reckon is there in this middle east talk?

 

I reckon that there's about as much truth as the last time tbh - very little.

[Dave]

What do you think of it Dave? How much truth do you reckon is there in this middle east talk?

 

I reckon that there's about as much truth as the last time tbh - very little.

 

Haven't got the foggiest, but the fact three different papers have now picked it up suggests someone has been blabbing. Might well be just all hedging their bets of course and copying each other.

[geordie jamie]

i think they are just using the story from the chronicle thinking they are in the know

[Pilko]

What do you think of it Dave? How much truth do you reckon is there in this middle east talk?

 

I reckon that there's about as much truth as the last time tbh - very little.

 

Haven't got the foggiest, but the fact three different papers have now picked it up suggests someone has been blabbing. Might well be just all hedging their bets of course and copying each other.

 

I think we can all be sure that since Shearer has had these talks with Ashley, it's dawned on him exactly how much he has to do to get us back up and he's cacked himself. Of course, I can see the Chronicle etc dipping into their old archives of stories from September etc when it was last up for sale and rekindling 'old interest'.

[Parky]

I was just looking at Sports Direct's share price thinking that if I had shares in Ashley's other business I'd want to get rid based on the woeful way he's run NUFC, and was surprised to see that it's doing rather well. Sports Direct's share price has doubled since Christmas '08, they're increasing market share, and some analysts are recommending investors to add Sports Direct to their portfolio. He's obviously employed some shrewd and experienced businessmen to run that company for him so why can't he run NUFC using the same principle of employing the best people available who know the football industry?

 

Llambias has obviously been way out of his depth as Chairman, so if I were Ashley I'd bring back Chris Mort and allow him to employ an experienced team of directors to maximise the potential of NUFC. Obviously this would mean that Ashley would have to invest more money into the club, and I appreciate that we don't know if this is possible due to his own personal finances, but surely, as a gambling man, this must be more preferable to him than just walking away and taking the £150 million hit.

 

 

 

Ashley has still fleeced investors in Sports Direct though. He floated it at £3 a share (but kept about 55% of the shares iirc) and trousered £929 million in cash based on that valuation. Following the flotation at its worst it went down to about 40p a share and that was before there was a recession. The dive in price was due to poor performance and the company not delivering what it had said it would. It is also generally regarded as being one of the worst run PLCs on the market. The price has recently recovered, as you say, and is about 85p now, but thats still well short of the flotation value. When the price dived Ashley started buying up the shares again taking advantage of the lower price - last time I looked his holding was back up to about 75% of the company.  

 

 

Sneaky fuck.

[JH]

Anyone have any clue who's in 'The Omani group' or what they do?

[pedro111]

£10 says we get took over by some dirt poor arabs who can only scrape together the £100 million and have no money left to actually put into the club.  It would be just our fucking luck.

[Consortium of one]

The money I raised to buy the club before Ashley pulled it off the market was put into escrow.  Having collected some interest since then, I now have $2,134.66.  I have drafted a new letter of intent and have sent it to Seymour Pierce post haste.

 

I await acknowledgement before I commence negotiations.

[Leazes1986]

£10 says we get took over by some dirt poor arabs who can only scrape together the £100 million and have no money left to actually put into the club.  It would be just our fucking luck.

 

It would be business as usual then apart from a fat clown wearing a Newcastle top in the posh bit.

[LoveItIfWeBeatU]

Anyone have any clue who's in 'The Omani group' or what they do?

I would guess they are the Oman equivalent of the Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment (Adug) (United Arab Emirates) who bought Man City. They are a private equity company.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Dhabi_United_Group

 

It could be this: -

http://www.cityscapeintelligence.com/breaking-news/omani-group-looks-for-strategic-partners

Simran International Group is looking for strategic partners considering investing in Oman.

 

Hanif Shaikh, managing director of the Omani group, revealed that there are plans for a number of building projects in the country, reported the Nation.

http://www.simranintl.com/

[Guest Heneage]

Any word on estimated value?

[Liam Liam Liam O]

I was just looking at Sports Direct's share price thinking that if I had shares in Ashley's other business I'd want to get rid based on the woeful way he's run NUFC, and was surprised to see that it's doing rather well. Sports Direct's share price has doubled since Christmas '08, they're increasing market share, and some analysts are recommending investors to add Sports Direct to their portfolio. He's obviously employed some shrewd and experienced businessmen to run that company for him so why can't he run NUFC using the same principle of employing the best people available who know the football industry?

 

Llambias has obviously been way out of his depth as Chairman, so if I were Ashley I'd bring back Chris Mort and allow him to employ an experienced team of directors to maximise the potential of NUFC. Obviously this would mean that Ashley would have to invest more money into the club, and I appreciate that we don't know if this is possible due to his own personal finances, but surely, as a gambling man, this must be more preferable to him than just walking away and taking the £150 million hit.

 

 

 

Ashley has still fleeced investors in Sports Direct though. He floated it at £3 a share (but kept about 55% of the shares iirc) and trousered £929 million in cash based on that valuation. Following the flotation at its worst it went down to about 40p a share and that was before there was a recession. The dive in price was due to poor performance and the company not delivering what it had said it would. It is also generally regarded as being one of the worst run PLCs on the market. The price has recently recovered, as you say, and is about 85p now, but thats still well short of the flotation value. When the price dived Ashley started buying up the shares again taking advantage of the lower price - last time I looked his holding was back up to about 75% of the company.  

 

 

Not dissimilar to what the Hall's & Shepherd did with shares in the football club.

 

They also used company money to buy some of their shares from them IIRC.

 

EDIT: When the club was made into a PLC it ended up with 145 million shares.

 

This was reduced by 16m in 2003 ago when the club decided to buy that amount back from the Hall family for £4.5m. Normally the only way to sell shares is on the general stock market. It was unusual for a company to only offer to buy shares back from a  single shareholder. This deal was announced at the same time as  the club only being able to afford to bring in Lee Bowyer on a free transfer. The club than gave the Halls a further £1m worth of shares as a dividend in 2005.

 

http://www.football-finances.org.uk/newcastle/dividends2.htm

[David Icke - Son of God]

Any word on estimated value?

 

[pedro111]

The Omani's dont sound as impressive as the Abu Dhabi lot do they?

 

Maybe its just a name thing.

[Dave]

Tbh if they appointed a Peter Kenyon/David Dein type and provided sensible financial backing I'd be happy to never actually see or hear from whoever the fuck owns the club.

 

I'm not arsed about a trillionaire pouring in silly money, but I do want someone in charge who knows what they're doing.