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The 2011-2012 Betting Thread: Last call for 2011/12 football, pretty much


Stu

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2 weeks for that bet :kinnear:

 

Eh? And? You'll still be making a healthy profit.  :idiot2:

 

Two weeks is not that long anyway.

Betting time is a bit like how time works in Inception. One hour feels like a day, a day feels like a week, a week is a year etc.

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2 weeks for that bet :kinnear:

 

Eh? And? You'll still be making a healthy profit.  :idiot2:

 

Two weeks is not that long anyway.

Betting time is a bit like how time works in Inception. One hour feels like a day, a day feels like a week, a week is a year etc.

 

Yeah, I understand what you mean. :lol:  But still, decent accy, imo. :dontknow:

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Don't think Spain to qualify at 2/5 is great value, Portugal are a lot closer than 70:30.

 

I'm looking at it from a sporting perspective.

 

Are you telling me you would go for Portugal solely based on its better value? Isn't that something you've accused me of doing in the past?

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Don't think Spain to qualify at 2/5 is great value, Portugal are a lot closer than 70:30.

 

I'm looking at it from a sporting perspective.

 

Are you telling me you would go for Portugal solely based on its better value? Isn't that something you've accused me of doing in the past?

 

Betting on value is vastly different to betting on potential returns.

 

Betting on potential returns (the thing I "accused you of doing in the past"): wow, this 10x team accumulator has a possible return of £3493204492.12 for a £1.20 stake, I'm buying this bet! :)

 

Betting on value (the thing I try to do): I think both teams are quite evenly matched and if they played 10 times, then the result would be split 50/50. The bookies have price one team up at odds on (4/6) and the other at odds-against (6/4), I'll back the team who I think are overpriced.

 

 

That's a very simplistic view but hopefully you get the idea.

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Don't think Spain to qualify at 2/5 is great value, Portugal are a lot closer than 70:30.

 

I'm looking at it from a sporting perspective.

 

Are you telling me you would go for Portugal solely based on its better value? Isn't that something you've accused me of doing in the past?

 

Betting on value is vastly different to betting on potential returns.

 

Betting on potential returns (the thing I "accused you of doing in the past"): wow, this 10x team accumulator has a possible return of £3493204492.12 for a £1.20 stake, I'm buying this bet! :)

 

Betting on value (the thing I try to do): I think both teams are quite evenly matched and if they played 10 times, then the result would be split 50/50. The bookies have price one team up at odds on (4/6) and the other at odds-against (6/4), I'll back the team who I think are overpriced.

 

 

That's a very simplistic view but hopefully you get the idea.

 

So, do you think Portugal and Spain are evenly matched?

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Given the form shown so far and the match situation, I think it's closer to 50:50 than 70:30, in that instance I would be leaning towards the odds on Portugal qualifying.

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Was going off the odds that Dinholad quoted for Spain, which suggested the price of qualifcation was somewhere around the 70:40~ mark (given that books should be running to around 112%)

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59/41 then.

 

Either way there isn't much wrong with the spain odds, they've rarely been troubled in 4 games and have scored goals without a striker even being on the pitch.

 

For comparison (have no idea how this will turn out), trying to gauge some sort of 'strength of opposition' metric...

 

Spain Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

 

1-1 Italy DDWD 25% 4 (1)

4-0 Ireland LLL 0% 1 (0.3)

1-0 Croatia WDL 33% 4 (1.3)

2-0 France DWLL 25% 3 (.75)

 

Portugal Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

0-1 Germany WWWW 100% 9 (2.25)

3-2 Denmark WLL 33% 4 (1.3)

2-1 Holland LLL 0% 2 (0.6)

1-0 Czech Republic LWWL 50% 4 (1)

 

Looks like they both beat the worst performing teams at the tournament (Ireland and Holland) but Portugal ran into the best team of the tournament whereas Spain have played 3 'average' teams.

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Spain haven't impressed me so far, I think they've been riding their luck and they were one Croatian header away from dropping at the group stage. Will definitely have money on Portugal as well as a Ronaldo wincast and Ronaldo 1-0.

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59/41 then.

 

Either way there isn't much wrong with the spain odds, they've rarely been troubled in 4 games and have scored goals without a striker even being on the pitch.

 

For comparison (have no idea how this will turn out), trying to gauge some sort of 'strength of opposition' metric...

 

Spain Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

 

1-1 Italy DDWD 25% 4 (1)

4-0 Ireland LLL 0% 1 (0.3)

1-0 Croatia WDL 33% 4 (1.3)

2-0 France DWLL 25% 3 (.75)

 

Portugal Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

0-1 Germany WWWW 100% 9 (2.25)

3-2 Denmark WLL 33% 4 (1.3)

2-1 Holland LLL 0% 2 (0.6)

1-0 Czech Republic LWWL 50% 4 (1)

 

Looks like they both beat the worst performing teams at the tournament (Ireland and Holland) but Portugal ran into the best team of the tournament whereas Spain have played 3 'average' teams.

I think you're being a bit harsh on Italy (they are arguably better than Portugal) but I see the point. I just think Portugal are vulnerable in defence where as you will be lucky to forge more than a couple of decent opportunities in 90 (or 120) minutes against Spain. I cannot see Ronaldo having the same freedom to terrorise either if the majority of El Classico matches are anything to go by.

 

I hope Portugal do win it like, but I think it'll be another 1/2-0 to Spain with Portugal playing the same game they did against Germany.

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Portugal will lose the midfield and Spain will have all the possession. It all comes down to how well Veloso\Moutinho\Pepe\Alves can shut down the middle. Pepe is very used to playing against the Barcelona midfielders so they can certainly do it. Ronaldo and Nani are some of the first players in the world you would choose for counter-attacking strategy so Portugal have a real chance to qualify. Hopefully they pick Oliveira ahead of Almeida as I can see Almeida being a passenger if he gets picked.

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Portugal will lose the midfield and Spain will have all the possession. It all comes down to how well Veloso\Moutinho\Pepe\Alves can shut down the middle. Pepe is very used to playing against the Barcelona midfielders so they can certainly do it. Ronaldo and Nani are some of the first players in the world you would choose for counter-attacking strategy so Portugal have a real chance to qualify. Hopefully they pick Oliveira ahead of Almeida as I can see Almeida being a passenger if he gets picked.

Actually thinking about it, Pepe Red Card may be the best bet of this match :lol:
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:lol:

 

How do you think Spain look against the counter?

 

I thought that against Croatia they looked a bit sketchy, that glorious header aside, there were a couple of other good breaks that needed a bit more quality to cause Spain genuine problems.

 

Even the French got some half-chances once Ribery got possession on the break, just a shame he had no-one to help him out when he got near the box (Portugal are much quicker).

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For comparison (have no idea how this will turn out), trying to gauge some sort of 'strength of opposition' metric...

 

Spain Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

 

1-1 Italy DDWD 25% 4 (1)

 

Looks like they both beat the worst performing teams at the tournament (Ireland and Holland) but Portugal ran into the best team of the tournament whereas Spain have played 3 'average' teams.

I think you're being a bit harsh on Italy (they are arguably better than Portugal) but I see the point.

 

How am I being harsh on Italy? They're rated as to how they've performed (3 draws and a win against the worst performing team in the tournament).

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This is the real test for Spain as their defense haven't been really tested. Ramos also loves Hollywood last-ditch tackles that can go easily wrong especially against Ronaldo and his ego is too big not to try those especially against Ronaldo. I'll bet on Portugal some way but nothing too big as I've chased the losses back and want to stay on profit from the tournament after the abysmal start.

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For comparison (have no idea how this will turn out), trying to gauge some sort of 'strength of opposition' metric...

 

Spain Opponents' Win % +GS (GS/game)

 

1-1 Italy DDWD 25% 4 (1)

 

Looks like they both beat the worst performing teams at the tournament (Ireland and Holland) but Portugal ran into the best team of the tournament whereas Spain have played 3 'average' teams.

I think you're being a bit harsh on Italy (they are arguably better than Portugal) but I see the point.

 

How am I being harsh on Italy? They're rated as to how they've performed (3 draws and a win against the worst performing team in the tournament).

It's a flawed system, you have Italy with a 25% win percentage because of their draw with us, where as Denmark who were knocked out in the group stages have a 33% win percentage? It's hardly the greatest way to judge the teams tbh. Win % also isn't a good barometer considering teams tactics and mentalities change during the group stages and to the knock out stages.

 

Another thing is that Germany have a 100% record because they beat Portugal, where as Spain don't have a 100% record because Italy drew with them. I think I took the 'average' comment the wrong way though (I took it literally), which was canny daft considering it was clearly highlighted with apostrophes :lol:

 

Italy looked to do Spain on the counter a couple of times too, but I don't think it's neccesarily a weak point for them, it's just literally the only way you can attack against them so it's highlighted as their 'weakness'. Any team that plays on the front foot is susceptible to counter-attacks, Spain have still only conceided 1 goal though (against another of the semi-finalists) and have probably had the least clear cut chances created against them in the tournament too.

 

Saying that, Portugal were absolutely lethal on the counter against Holland, but they wont get as many chances as the did in that game here.

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How am I being harsh on Italy? They're rated as to how they've performed (3 draws and a win against the worst performing team in the tournament).

It's a flawed system, you have Italy with a 25% win percentage because of their draw with us, where as Denmark who were knocked out in the group stages have a 33% win percentage? It's hardly the greatest way to judge the teams tbh. Win % also isn't a good barometer considering teams tactics and mentalities change during the group stages and to the knock out stages.

 

Another thing is that Germany have a 100% record because they beat Portugal, where as Spain don't have a 100% record because Italy drew with them. I think I took the 'average' comment the wrong way though (I took it literally), which was canny daft considering it was clearly highlighted with apostrophes :lol:

 

Fair comment :thup: the 'average team' comment was about Italy's performance in an overall table of the 16 teams. The Portugal losing to Germany stat can be read however you want, but I see it as they've beaten every team except the best performing one...the next match will show if they will validate this reading or not :pow:

 

Given the small sample of matches in the tournament, it's extremely difficult/dangerous to read to much into the stats but there's not much else that you can tangibly look at. In-match stats would be next and without looking into it, I would hazard a guess that Spain haven't been keeping the ball as well in these matches as they did before the tournament (assuming Barca-levels of ball retention here, though).

 

Italy looked to do Spain on the counter a couple of times too, but I don't think it's neccesarily a weak point for them, it's just literally the only way you can attack against them so it's highlighted as their 'weakness'. Any team that plays on the front foot is susceptible to counter-attacks, Spain have still only conceided 1 goal though (against another of the semi-finalists) and have probably had the least clear cut chances created against them in the tournament too.

 

Saying that, Portugal were absolutely lethal on the counter against Holland, but they wont get as many chances as the did in that game here.

 

I'm not sure if lethal is the right word, as you say, they spurned plenty of chances - but this bodes well IMO, so long as teams are creating chances (which Portugal have been) then they're always going to have a chance of winning.

 

To me, lethal is what we were against Chelsea...three shots on goal and scored two of them. :aww:

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I could cry had £5 treble on

 

1

Horse Racing

BRIGHTON

14:45 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 5f 213yds

26th of Jun 2012 2:45 pm

Win or E/W

Kicken Off @ 4/9

Win

 

Selection Selection Details Result

2

Horse Racing

BEVERLEY

14:30 MAIDEN AUCTION STAKES 7f 100y

26th of Jun 2012 2:30 pm

Win or E/W

Arthurs Secret @ 9/2

Win

 

Selection Selection Details Result

3

Horse Racing

BRIGHTON

14:15 HANDICAP (0-65) 5f 59yds

26th of Jun 2012 2:15 pm

Win or E/W

Dear Maurice @ 13/2

Placed

 

Came 2nd the fkn donkey

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