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The 2012/13 Betting Thread


Neil

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75€ both games on CL under 2.5 double @ 2.79.

50€ Celtic or draw\Val-PSG draw @ 5.85.

 

Hhm... the 2nd one seems very interesting to me.

 

It's rare that you come up with some bets in here but you're not far off normally...

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About to make myself look daft here, but so fuck.

 

On the Betfair cash out advert, it says that he's backed Man United to win. When they go 4-2 up after 69 mins, that's looking pretty certain. When Everton get it back to 4-3, it's suddenly looking less likely that Man United will win, so shouldn't the odds drift, and therefore the amount he can win go up? On the advert it goes down. Why?

 

If you placed two separate in-play bets on Man United to win, surely your returns would be greater if you bet on them at a risky 4-3 than at a secure-looking 4-2.

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It's less likely that you'll win the bet at 4-3 than at 4-2, so your cash-out amount will reflect that

 

Doesn't less likely = longer odds?

 

I mean I realise that him taking the money eventually means he won even though his bet didn't come in, but it seems back to front to me that as something gets less likely you stand to win less money. Obviously it's just a gambling gimmick but I can't really understand why people would go for it.

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It's less likely that you'll win the bet at 4-3 than at 4-2, so your cash-out amount will reflect that

 

Doesn't less likely = longer odds?

 

I mean I realise that him taking the money means he won even when his bet didn't come in, but it seems back to front to me that as something gets less likely you stand to win less money.

 

But why would you get more money from cashing out when it's looking likelier that you will lose the bet, as opposed to when you're looking relatively safe to win it?

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It's less likely that you'll win the bet at 4-3 than at 4-2, so your cash-out amount will reflect that

 

Doesn't less likely = longer odds?

 

I mean I realise that him taking the money means he won even when his bet didn't come in, but it seems back to front to me that as something gets less likely you stand to win less money.

 

But why would you get more money from cashing out when it's looking likelier that you will lose the bet, as opposed to when you're looking relatively safe to win it?

 

Because you're liable to lose it completely if Everton equalise. The risk increases, which is the whole principle behind betting, surely.

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About to make myself look daft here, but so fuck.

 

On the Betfair cash out advert, it says that he's backed Man United to win. When they go 4-2 up after 69 mins, that's looking pretty certain. When Everton get it back to 4-3, it's suddenly looking less likely that Man United will win, so shouldn't the odds drift, and therefore the amount he can win go up? On the advert it goes down. Why?

 

If you placed two separate in-play bets on Man United to win, surely your returns would be greater if you bet on them at a risky 4-3 than at a secure-looking 4-2.

 

It's advertising a CASH OUT option which means he's placed the bet. If his bet looks less certain to come in due to a shift in the game then he can CASH OUT before the game (bet) ends. Basically gives the gambler an element of control once the market has started so its a plus of placing your bet win them as opposed to walking in to say Ladbrokes and having a straight 'win' which will either win or lose and can't be 'managed' in play.

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It's less likely that you'll win the bet at 4-3 than at 4-2, so your cash-out amount will reflect that

 

Doesn't less likely = longer odds?

 

I mean I realise that him taking the money means he won even when his bet didn't come in, but it seems back to front to me that as something gets less likely you stand to win less money.

 

But why would you get more money from cashing out when it's looking likelier that you will lose the bet, as opposed to when you're looking relatively safe to win it?

 

Because you're liable to lose it completely if Everton equalise. The risk increases, which is the whole principle behind betting, surely.

 

From the betting companies point of view, the chance you'll cash out at Man U 4-2 Everton is pretty slim, therefore they can stand to offer a larger proportion of what you'd stand to win. As soon as it goes to 4-3 and Everton look like they might get a draw from the game, more people will think about cashing out and therefore they offer you a lower amount to compensate for that fact. You have to remember the betting company holds all the power here, and it's a bit like Ashley-style brinksmanship in that they can offer a fairly naff sum to you and you'll still consider it because the chance of ending up with nowt is far greater.

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