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Predictions league 2015/16 - Now with average N-O prediction table!


Magpie

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After 27 sets of predictions our group guesses (median home and away goals, turned into results) look like this:

 

Aston Villa 1-1  Swansea

Leicester 2-1 Crystal Palace

Norwich 1-1 West Brom

Stoke 2-0 Watford

West Ham 1-2 Chelsea

Arsenal 3-1 Everton

Sunderland 1-2 Newcastle

Bournemouth 0-2 Spurs

Man Utd 1-2 Man City

Liverpool 2-1 Southampton

 

 

Pre-derby temperature test... we’ve got 18 wins, 3 loses, and 9 drawers. Scores range from the stuff of dreams: seven (2-5) and six goal (2-4, 0-6!—loving your work Kaizero!) routs, to 2-0 defeats (Bah! humbug...). Six people have put their nomination where their heart is, but eight of us have gone with the (thus far) reliable Arsenal. None of us have nominated the Chelski game (...maybe Jose’s lost the Geordie dressing room too) nor the Palace game (well, ol’ what’s his name lost most of us some time ago). Here’s hoping we ‘fall back’ into winning ways, i.e. don’t forgot the clocks!

:indi:

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Aston Villa 0-2 Swansea

Leicester 3-1 Crystal Palace

Norwich 1-1 West Brom

Stoke 1-1 Watford

West Ham 2-2 Chelsea

Arsenal 2-1 Everton

Sunderland 0-0 Newcastle

Bournemouth 0-3 Spurs

Man Utd 1-1 Man City

Liverpool 2-1 Southampton

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Been off from work for the week so totally forgot about this. Putting up the games that haven't started yet.

 

Arsenal 2-1 Everton

Sunderland 1-1 Newcastle

Bournemouth 2-2 Spurs

Man Utd 1-2 Man City

Liverpool 1-0 Southampton

 

Magpie, as of now the Arsenal match hasn't started but a deadline's a deadline so no worries if it doesn't count.

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Gameweek 11

 

Chelsea v Liverpool

Crystal Palace v Man Utd

Man City v Norwich

Newcastle v Stoke

Swansea v Arsenal

Watford v West Ham

West Brom v Leicester

Everton v Sunderland

Southampton v Bournemouth

Spurs v Aston Villa

 

Week 10 scores to follow tomorrow!

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All scoring to be confirmed by Magpie. Week 10:

I’ve assumed that post deadline scores will not be included (controversial, but consistent) so forgive me if this is wrong. Anyhoo, for those of you who retain a passing interest in this cruel sport... this week’s scores have produced a more modest points return. I reckon only 8 players have scored 20 or more, with nobody approaching last week’s dizzy heights of 30+ points. The highest scoring game returned a reasonable 114 points (Arsenal v Everton), with six correct results (one doubled-up) and six six-pointers.  I can see three 10 pointers — other two from the Villa game; all 2-1 in the expected direction.  Our game produced a miserly 11 points (...hope you choke on them  :weep: ). 

Well done to POOT, South-Cheshire Toon and Pilko, who each managed to be the only person to predict a particular scoreline (games in Stoke, Norwich and Leicester respectively). Lawro would have scored 15 points, beating Paul ‘Housemartins’ Heaton who only managed 8 points. (Blades fan, so gave him ‘R&W stripmates’ Southampton, as nom).  Our ‘Group Guess’ (median of our H scores vs. median of our A scores) total was 13 points. Which was well beaten by our average points total of 16.5. I also added on the predictions from YouTube sensation True Geordie, who would have picked up 12 points by Magpie’s rules. Looking forward to hearing his no-doubt volcanic take on our latest soap-opera-esque result.

 

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Gameweek 11

 

Chelsea 2 v 0 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1 v 3 Man Utd

Man City 2 v 0 Norwich

Newcastle 2 v 1 Stoke

Swansea 2 v 2 Arsenal

Watford 1 v 2 West Ham

West Brom 1 v 2 Leicester

Everton 2 v 1 Sunderland

Southampton 3 v 0 Bournemouth

Spurs 4 v 0 Aston Villa

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Gameweek 11

 

Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 0-2 Man Utd

Man City 3-1 Norwich

Newcastle 1-1 Stoke

Swansea 1-2 Arsenal

Watford 0-1 West Ham

West Brom 0-0 Leicester

Everton 1-0 Sunderland

Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth

Spurs 2-0 Aston Villa

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Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Man City 3-0 Norwich

Newcastle 1-1 Stoke

Swansea 1-1 Arsenal

Watford 2-1 West Ham

West Brom 1-1 Leicester

Everton 2-1 Sunderland

Southampton 3-1 Bournemouth

Spurs 2-0 Aston Villa

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Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Man City 4-0 Norwich

Newcastle 2-0 Stoke

Swansea 0-2 Arsenal

Watford 1-1 West Ham

West Brom 0-0 Leicester

Everton 3-0 Sunderland

Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth

Spurs 2-0 Aston Villa

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Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1-3 Man Utd

Man City 4-0 Norwich

Newcastle 3-1 Stoke

Swansea 1-2 Arsenal

Watford 1-1 West Ham

West Brom 1-1 Leicester

Everton 2-0 Sunderland

Southampton 3-0 Bournemouth

Spurs 2-0 Aston Villa

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Week 10 scores updated, it's all getting a bit tight at the top, top four all within 5 points of each other!!!

 

As for tgarve's query, I've accepted the late predictions from andymc1 and Astroblack for the games that hadn't been played but cancelled their bonus game nominations. Unless you nominate a game prior to all games starting you're gaining an unfair advantage as the chances of doubling up are increased with less games to choose from. Hope the makes sense.

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Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Man City 3-0 Norwich

Newcastle 1-1 Stoke

Swansea 1-2 Arsenal

Watford 1-1 West Ham

West Brom 1-1 Leicester

Everton 2-1 Sunderland

Southampton 2-1 Bournemouth

Spurs 3-1 Aston Villa

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Cheers, Magpie. That Arsenal game was the only game I got.  :lol:

 

Gameweek 11 - I like to do these early so I can forget about my predictions and enjoy the games.

 

Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool

Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

Man City 3-0 Norwich

Newcastle 2-1 Stoke

Swansea 2-1 Arsenal

Watford 1-1 West Ham

West Brom 1-1 Leicester

Everton 1-2 Sunderland

Southampton 3-1 Bournemouth

Spurs 2-0 Aston Villa

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Boring myself to tears this year, not done anything remotely exceptional even one week.  Fucking steady Eddy.

 

That time a few years ago when I was the first person to get all 10 results right didn't do anything but piss me off either, I'd have won proper loads if I put money on it.

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10 games in, thought it was worth seeing how we’re doing; in general, and specifically, in comparison to the experts. Things look pretty close at the top: there are seven players averaging over 17.5 points per week, which seems admirable to me. However, given the amount of points available per week, and the fact nearly 74% of the season is remaining, I think it is even closer than that. The average for 18 players is within 3 points of first place (16.3-19.3). This ’30 point’ gap at this stage, as a very rough yardstick, is probably no more extreme than a six point gap in that other league with only three points available each week.

 

Mark Lawrenson would have at least 190 points (be joint second) in our league. I say at least, because I’ve given him Liverpool as his nomination each week, and I guess he would have had safer predictions in mind. Lawro’s guests would have accumulated 133 points; just using average points, this would put them in bottom place with a 13.3 average; our bottom three have all missed two or more games (lowest average points tally is 15.1: that 1.8 difference is the same gap between 1st and 8th). Our group guess, the safe “Malcolm in the Middle” of prediction strategies would have 161 points (21st in the league, from 31 regular players left). Of course over a 38 game season there will be random variations in form. There only need be slight but consistent improvements or deteriorations and things could look very different, particularly for those already managing to stay in touch, by averaging over 16.3.  So if anyone’s feeling disheartened, probably no need, especially given the number of crazy results we have seen thus far this season. All things considered, seems to me that some players have been admirably consistent, and collectively, relatively speaking, we’re all doing well.

 

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